Dexter Fowler is the next Ricky Henderson?

Fowler is telling David Eckstein that he now owns second base.
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Dexter Fowler did his best Ricky impersonation last night. Fowler went 2-for-4 at the plate with two walks, three runs and five -- that’s right, five -- stolen bases. The only thing Fowler didn’t do was hit a leadoff home run but he does have two home runs this season.

Fowler is only 23 years old and has only been hitting from the left side of the plate for about four years, yet he is driving the ball from the left side of the plate and he thinks he has more raw power from the left side of the plate. He does say that he has more consistent power from the right side, but the left has light tower power.

Fowler is now batting .302 this season with a .393 on base percentage. He has nine stolen bases and 11 runs scored. Six of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases and he has knocked in six runs. In the outfield he runs like a gazelle and covers so much ground in center he makes it look like there is a short center fielder playing also.  Exactly what a team wants in a leadoff hitter.

So does he resemble his boyhood idol (he wears #24 because he is a Ken Griffey Jr. fan) or does he resemble Ricky Henderson?

Henderson is considered by most baseball fans to be the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history and will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2009.  Griffey might have been the best player of the 1990’s and has more than 600 home runs to his name and will most certainly be a Hall of Famer five years after he retires.

It is way too early to make these comparisons, but let’s have some fun and run with Ricky Henderson.

Ricky ended his career with a .401 on base percentage and stole 1,406 bases. He also scored 2,295 runs and hit 297 dingers.  Check his career numbers here.

After Fowler stole five bases last night he now has nine on the season. Last night was a perfect storm for stealing bags. Nick Hundley, the Padres catcher, has yet to catch an opposing base stealer all season: Opponents are a perfect 19 for 19 on him. The Padres also had Chris Young on the mound and he is known for being slow to the plate with runners on base and doesn’t do his catcher any favors when it comes to holding runners.

Fowler stole all five of his bases before Young left the game in the fourth inning. He stole second base three times and third base twice.

If he keeps up on his current pace he would steal about 75 bases in 2009. While Fowler is young, Ricky stole 100 bases in 1980 when he was 21 years old.

Fowler is getting more consistent playing time so let’s say he nabs 80 bases this year, which would be the most in a single season since Vince Coleman stole 81 in 1988.

If Fowler was to average 80 stolen bases a year, which would be tremendous, he would have to play until he was 41 to break the record. I have a hard time seeing a late-30’s ball player stealing 80 bases a year.

Henderson’s 297 home runs are certainly within reach. If Fowler stays on his current pace he will hit just under 20 in 2009. He should develop more power as he continues to learn and he could have more than 300 home runs by the time he is 35.

Safe to say that the self-proclaimed “Greatest of All Time” is still just that.

Fowler is going to be an amazing ball player for years to come and if he can steal half as many bases as Ricky he will still rank 11th all time and might have a bust next to #24 and Ricky someday in Cooperstown.