Can Paulus hold onto his starting spot?
There are lots of rumors swirling around that Duke senior point guard Greg Paulus is in the process of losing his starting job to sophomore Nolan Smith.
Seth Davis pondered the issue last Friday and The Big Lead all but declared it a done deal in a post today.
Regardless of TBL's assertions, Coach K has yet to make a decision so let's ponder the pro's and con's of both Paulus and Smith as Duke's point guard.
Physically, they are equals. Paulus stands at 6-foot-1, 185 lbs., while Smith is a little taller and skinnier at 6-foot-2, 180 lbs.
Their numbers from the 2007-2008 season, in which Paulus was a junior and Smith a freshman, also average out pretty evenly.
Greg Paulus - Averaged 11.4 points, 3.2 assists and 27.7 minutes of playing time; .41 points per minute; 1.98 A/T; .053 steals per minute.
Nolan Smith - Averaged 5.9 points, 1.3 assists and 14.7 minutes of playing time; .40 points per minute; .92 A/T; .036 steals per minute.
Paulus comes out on top for in both the assist to turnover ratio and the steals per minute category. This last stat is surprising since Smith is considered a better on-the-ball defender, but maybe more steals are generated away from the ball.
So who is better on the fast break? Probably Smith since his pressure defense will generate more fast break opportunities and he can finish better in the lane than Paulus.
But from downtown, Paulus is far superior to Smith, nailing .423 of his threes as compared to Smith's .386.
In the end, each player brings their own strengths to the starting line-up and it will come down to whether Coach K is looking to sustain leadership or develop potential. Paulus is one of the captains for the Blue Devils this season and has three years of playing experience. Smith, on the other hand, has the potential to be far superior to Paulus at the point guard position, but he needs playing time to grow.
The practices leading up to the season opener will no doubt sway Coach K's decision, and at the annual Blue-White scrimmage it seemed like Smith made a strong case. According to The News & Observer:
But Smith appeared ready to push into the starting lineup after leading the team he played for, first White, then Blue, to victory. It was only Duke's second practice of the season but coach Mike Krzyzewski acknowledged Smith is making that kind of push with the way he's playing.
It's hard to see Coach K benching his starting point guard for the last three seasons and senior captain in favor of a talented sophomore, but stranger things have happened. A conservative bet says that Paulus is the starter to begin the season, but when the Blue Devils struggle, and they will struggle at some point, expect to see Smith in the starting lineup.
Comments
Paulus has never lived up to his potential. Too small and too slow.
Jacob,
Your bad grammar is distracting. It's either "there is a lot..." or "there are lots...." It's "superior to," not "superior than."
I'm seeing (and hearing) way too much bad grammar by sports journalists. You're just my latest target.
Pat,
Both good grammar corrections, neither of which I would've caught on my own. I appreciate being the target. The offensive language has been changed.
I agree, Paulus hasn't really lived up to his potential, he was the number ONE point guard in his class. He was ahead of Mario Chalmers, Dominic James, Darren Collison and Byron Eaton. He's not a bad point guard, but Smith is so much better at almost everything. He's much quicker and can get to the basket and create his own shot. Once Smith takes over at PG, whether it's this season or next, he will really bust onto the scene. He's the most underrated player Duke has, unless you count Plumlee now, but we will have to see about him :)
Oh and about the grammar issues, everyone makes them from time to time. Some just more than others. Haha.
I agree that Paulus should start but I think it would serve him better to be 1 of 2 shooting guards. Smith is fast enough to penetrate the middle and dish out to either Paulus or Scheyer on the wing for the open three pointer
Starting is not the issue. Take a look at minutes. Scheyer didn't start last year but was 2nd behind Nelson in minutes played. If Nolan can continue to elevate his game, expect him to crack the top five in minutes played.
As long as we're talking writing here, don't use apostrophes when doing simple pluralization. "Pros" and "cons" is correct. Although this is rampant, I would expect more from a writer.
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