How many teams can the Big East get in?
With a whopping 16 schools calling it home, the Big East Conference is the largest of its kind in all of college basketball. Last season, half of their teams made it to the NCAA Tournament. Seems crazy, but this year that number could actually increase. The one difference from a year ago however is the presence of multiple "bubble" teams, an occurance directly related to the struggles of expected powerhouses like Georgetown and Notre Dame.
The eighth and final Big East school to reach the NCAA Tournament last season was Villanova, a team that finished 9-9 in conference play. The Wildcats also added a crucial victory in the Big East Tournament to ensure their chances, and even then they barely snuck in with a #12 seed. Even though Villanova's 08-09 team appears to be much improved from last season, it's the path they took to make it to the Big Dance last year that is most interesting here. For the most part, that same path is the blueprint to success for these six teams in question. Nine wins in the conference is the benchmark, and anything less just isn't going to get it done.
Bubble Watch
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Syracuse Orange
The Orange are clearly in the best position of any of these teams, and a big win or two would likely be enough to give them a nice push towards the upper half of the conference. The problem area right now for Syracuse is that they haven't been able to beat anyone in the Big East that is better than they are. Having a struggling Notre Dame team as your marquee conference victory just isn't saying very much. Over their next five games, Syracuse plays Villanova twice, West Virginia, Georgetown and Connecticut, meaning they don't have very much room for error. The key for this team will be if they can take down both West Virginia and Georgetown, two teams who possibly jump the Orange by season's end in the standings.
Overall record: 17-5
Big East record: 5-4
RPI: #24
Strength of schedule: #25
Notable home wins: Notre Dame, Virginia, Seton Hall
Notable home losses: Louisville, Cleveland State
Notable road wins: Memphis, South Florida, Rutgers
Notable road losses: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Providence
Neutral court record: 2-0
West Virginia Mountaineers
Even in their most recent loss to Louisville, the Mountaineers seemed to have gained a bit more legitimacy in many people's eyes. Sure they trailed by 20 points at half, but West Virginia roared back to cut the game to six, proving they are a team that is never fully out of a basketball game. The only thing holding this team back at the moment is the lack of an upset victory over a top Big East team. All four of their conference losses have come to the best teams in the Big East, meaning that only those four schools can actually stake a claim over the Mountaineers right now.
Overall record: 15-6
Big East record: 4-4
RPI: #19
Strength of schedule: #18
Notable home wins: Miami (OH), St. John's, South Florida
Notable home losses: Pittsburgh, Connecticut
Notable road wins: Georgetown, Ohio State, Mississippi, Seton Hall
Notable road losses: Marquette
Neutral court record: 1-2
Providence Friars
Not expected by anyone to seriously compete in the conference this year, the Providence Friars are one of the biggest surprises at this point in the 08-09 season. At 6-3 they should benefit from a couple of games in hand over teams like Notre Dame and Georgetown in the conference, but a lot can happen quickly in a conference this loaded with quality teams. The fact that Providence followed their impressive win over Syracuse on Wednesday with a 33 point blowout loss to Connecticut is hardly a good thing, but they still have enough talent to threaten teams like West Virginia and Cincinnati for a tournament bid.
Overall record: 14-7
Big East record: 6-3
RPI: #62
Strength of schedule: #57
Notable home wins: Syracuse, Cincinnati, St. John's
Notable home losses: Marquette, Northeastern
Notable road wins: Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Notable road losses: Connecticut, Georgetown, Boston College
Neutral court record: 1-2
Cincinnati Bearcats
A big win over Georgetown on Wednesday put them on the map, but it still feels like the Bearcats are viewed as somewhat of a darkhorse tournament contender. Their 4-4 Big East record and #30 strength of schedule stand up to a lot of other teams in the conference, it's just that they don't really have a big win to hang their hats on right now. With Georgetown floundering from week to week, Cincinnati's most impressive victory is going to look worse and worse as the season presses on. As long as they can play .500 basketball the rest of the way they will be right in the thick of things, but they will probably need another decent road win or two before they can lock up a spot.
Overall record: 14-7
Big East record: 4-4
RPI: #59
Strength of schedule: #30
Notable home wins: Georgetown, UAB, Mississippi State
Notable home losses: Xavier, Connecticut, Providence
Notable road wins: UNLV, St. John's, DePaul
Notable road losses: Memphis, Marquette, Providence
Neutral court record: 0-1
Georgetown Hoyas
Losers of five straight games, the Hoyas can kiss thoughts of being nationally ranked for another week goodbye. Another questionable loss or two and they can probably kiss their NCAA tournament hopes goodbye as well. The nation's toughest schedule up to this point has been brutal on Georgetown, and they will likely have to go 6-3 in the Big East the rest of the way just to warrant consideration as an 8th or 9th seed. It's clear that the Hoyas have the talent to make some noise in the postseason, but they will have to turn things around in a hurry if they plan to get there.
Overall record: 12-8
Big East record: 3-6
RPI: #18
Strength of schedule: #1
Notable home wins: Memphis, Syracuse, Providence
Notable home losses: Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Notable road wins: Connecticut
Notable road losses: Duke, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Seton Hall
Neutral court record: 2-1
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
In a free-fall similar to Georgetown, the Irish are basically facing a must-win situation at home for the rest of the season. Since they haven't been able to beat anyone of substance on the road, Notre Dame has a very weak tournament resume working against them right now. Neutral court wins over Indiana and Texas were nice to start out the season, but the Irish just don't seem capable of winning big games. Owning the worst schedule strength out of all five of these teams is another negative, and if tournament seeds were handed out today there's no question that Notre Dame would be left sitting out in the cold.
Overall record: 12-8
Big East record: 3-6
RPI: #81
Strength of schedule: #65
Notable home wins: Georgetown, Seton Hall
Notable home losses: Connecticut, Marquette
Notable road wins: DePaul
Notable road losses: Louisville, Syracuse, St. John's
Neutral court record: 2-2
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Comments
As a St. John's alum I hate that they aren't dominant
Yeah they have really dropped off over the past eight years or so. It's just so difficult for them to recruit in the Big East with the way college basketball is right now. You've got more than ten other schools just snatching up four and five star prospects like it's nothing. St. John's does have some hope in the form of incoming freshmen Omari Lawrence and Malik Stith, but they might take some time. Anything is possible though, and St. John's should probably win their next two games against South Florida and Seton Hall. That would put them at 4-6 in the conference. It's a far cry from dominance, but there is still hope!
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