The numbers are overwhelming. Colleges are breaking all application records—sometimes by as much as 42 percent, as in the case of the University of Chicago. But is it really that much more difficult for most students to get into college today than it was a decade ago?
Apparently not, according to a report released by The Center for Public Education, a Virginia-based initiative of the National Schools Board Association. In Chasing the College Acceptance Letter, the Center investigates the chances of an average student getting accepted to a competitive four-year college and finds:
• Average high school students expecting to go to college earn an overall GPA of 3.1, score 21 on the ACT (SAT equivalent of 980-1010), and pass math and science classes up through Trigonometry and Chemistry.
• Shrinking acceptance rates cited in so many news reports come from a higher number of applications submitted per student.
• The average college applicant today has about the same chance of getting into a “competitive” college as an average applicant a decade ago.
• Having the “right” credentials to get into college is less about posting all A’s, and more about earning “decent” grades, taking college-preparatory courses, and performing well on college entrance exams.
• Taking more rigorous courses, especially in math and science, gives an applicant a better chance of getting into a competitive college than does raising his or her GPA.
• Well-prepared low-income applicants are less likely to get into a competitive college than well-prepared high-income applicants: 66 percent vs. 80 percent.
The report acknowledges that some colleges did get harder to get into, but the vast majority remained the same or even easier. In fact, the rapidly-increasing number of college applications submitted per high school student, as facilitated by online systems, accounts only for an appearance of shrinking acceptances.
Although the number of high school graduates has been steadily increasing until this year, the number of open slots at colleges has gone up at nearly the same rate. Students sending out applications to far more colleges creates the illusion of more applicants, when in reality there are simply more applications.
But how does the average student improve his or her chances of admission? By taking more difficult courses. For example, the report found that average students could increase admissions odds from 69 to 79 percent if they completed Pre-calculus instead of stopping math at Algebra II. It would take a student raising his or her GPA from a 3.1 to a 3.6 to increase the chance of getting into college by this much.
Unfortunately, credential building doesn’t pay off as much for low-income students. Although minority students have a better chance of getting into competitive college than they did ten years ago, low-income college applicants went from having a 72 percent chance of getting admitted to just a 66 percent chance.
So the short answer is no, it’s not more difficult to get into a competitive college today than it was a decade ago. That is, unless you happen to come from a low-income family.
Comments
Fascinating! I always enjoy your articles and this one is no exception. One question though - with the advent of financial aid, why isn't a "well-prepared" low-income student getting the same shot at gaining acceptance into a competitive college as a "well-prepared" minority student? Could this be due to the (ever-increasing) number of slots taken each year by so-called "legacy" applicants leaving little room for non-minority, low-income students?
This is a great article, Nancy. Are the low-income students less likely to get into colleges which are need-aware versus those which are need-blind? This would be an interesting question to pursue.
The report doesn’t address the issue of “legacy” or how a student’s ability to pay factors into admissions decisions (needs blind vs. needs aware). But what it does say is that over the course of a decade, a low income student—coming from families that fell within the lowest 25 percent in socioeconomic status—who earned the same academic credentials as the average college-going high school student went from having a 72 percent of getting admitted into a competitive college to just a 66 percent chance.
The report suggests that one factor behind the disparity in opportunity may be a direct result of inadequate high school college counseling resources. It specifically recommends that schools provide access to knowledgeable guidance counselors who will prepare all students for college beginning as soon as they enter high school and who will assist in all phases of the college application process including the financial aid component.
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