Allan Huffman, The Raleigh Weather Examiner, got me thinking. Please read his article, Tropics quiet, what does a late start mean from history past? In the article he lists years which featured late starting tropical seasons. I researched the question of whether there could be winter implications. A pattern emerged.
Below are 2 composites of winter seasons following late starting tropical seasons listed by Allan.
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All of the seasons tell a story of the coldest temperature anomalies being in the southeast US. The warm spot in far northeast Canada is evidence that a negative NAO is favored on average during those times. Longer cold period and enhanced precipitation opportunities are favored.
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If I were forced to make a prediction for winter temperatures right now then the map would look like the one above. This one focuses on the 4 seasons which follow a solar minimum but precede the maximum. There were also less than 10 tropical storms.
The grudging unwillingness of the atmospheric circulation to totally depart from its La Nina base state or recent years and the summer inland heat ridge location in the south central US are my reasons for placing the core of cold there. There remains plenty of cold in our region and a better chance for the type of volatility which leads to high impact snow and ice events.
Winter is still months away. The outcome is not certain. There are significant reasons to start planning for winter expenses and very little argument that the recent period of mild winters will continue into this one.
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