Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore gestures as he joins cabinet
ministers from Nordic countries for discussion on Greenland's ice
sheet at the UN Climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark,
Monday, Dec. 14, 2009. During the conference, Gore severely
overstated the potential for Arctic sea ice loss.
(AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Maybe Al Gore should have stayed home from the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Having been shown to being prone to taking liberty with the facts, Gore once again did so by claiming that a computer model determined that there was a 75 percent chance the Arctic would be ice-free in five years. A dire prediction indeed – if it were true.
In his speech at the summit today, the former vice president Nobel Laureate and Danish ice scientist Dorthe Dahl Jens presented two slideshows to a packed audience at the Bella Center. The team discussed the loss of sea ice and the danger it presents from rising sea levels.
Gore told the audience, “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”
Those estimates far exceed even the direst predictions of climate scientists and set the room abuzz. The most often cited figure and the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of a loss of sea ice by 2030.
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"It is hard to capture the astonishment that the experts in the science of ice felt when they saw this," Gore said.
Not only were the ‘experts in the science of ice’ astonished, so too was Dr. Maslowski of the US Naval Postgraduate School, the scientist whose models supposedly came up with the five to seven year figure.
Maslowski told the UK Times, “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”
Other climate scientists and ice experts immediately disavowed Gore’s claims. Mark Serreze of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado told the Associated Press, "It's possible but not likely. We're sticking with 2030."
Mr. Gore’s office was quick to start damage control. The Times reported his office said it was a “ballpark figure” that Dr. Maslowski used in a conversation several years ago.
As one of the most visible – and divisive – figures in the debate about manmade climate change, the former vice president’s every word is watched closely. His movie “An Inconvenient Truth” was found by a British High Court to contain 11 significant errors and his recently released follow on book, “Our Choice” had errors and impossibilities on the cover.
In February his standard presentation depicted “weather related disasters that are completely unprecedented.” He was however forced to yank the slide when the assertion was proven false. Appearing on the Tonight Show last month, he said the core of the Earth was “several million degrees”, a temperature warmer than the surface of the sun. When asked about the Climategate email scandal last week, he stated that “the most recent one is more than 10 years old” when in fact some of the emails were sent as recently as October.
Update, 12/15/09, 6:00am MDT – There is a bit of he said / he said going on with this whole episode.
ClimateDepot.com obtained a brochure late yesterday from the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Danish Meteorological Institute that seemed to back up Gore’s claim about what Maslowski’s studies showed. However, that brochure does not say anything about the Arctic becoming “completely ice free” as Gore said. Rather it says it “could become near ice free.”
Maslowski emphasized that point in the Times story saying, “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”
Certainly it appears Maslowski does not want to be associated with Gore’s claim and the episode highlights the problems that arise when someone tries to issue dire predictions to try to drive home a point. Scare tactics like this oftentimes backfire and do nothing but cause problems for those who utter them. Given the former vice president's track record, he should know that claims such as this are going to bring a great deal of attention, justified or not.
Comments
Al Gore doesn't MAKE mistakes -- he IS a mistake! But he is a very rich mistake after taking everyone into his dream of doom!
He also said that the temperature of the Earths mantel about 10 kn down is 2 MILLION degrees.
The surface of the sun is about 10,000 degrees.
Global Sea Ice has gone up over the last two years
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Try doing some research next time
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
If Gore can't even get the basic facts right, ie. the core temp of the Earth why should anyone pay any attention to anything he says. These grossly exaggerated claims he makes are designed to instill fear into people. Gore's intent is not to save the planet, it is to line his pockets. He is heavily invested in "green" businesses and knows that causing worldwide panic about global warming will make him richer. However, if the AGW myth is exposed once and for all he stands to lose millions. If there was ever any reason to doubt the AGW theory it is this. Gore is the standard bearer of the movement, and is one of the biggest liars the world has ever known.
Quote: "Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”
SUMMER MONTHS morons. And this is NOT a dire prediction at all as the author alleges. It is in fact, becoming increasingly accepted as a very real possibility by real scientists.
arctic dot atmos dot uiuc dot edu/cryosphere/
science dot natice dot noaa dot gov/products.htm
nsidc dot org/data/seaice_index/
Constantly using Gore as punching bag is worse then lame - it reveals a lack of intelligence and facts.
You people need to wake up.
Hazado - you lie. The very site you linked to shows just the opposite of your claim - global sea ice is going down:
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
NOAA reports losses in the Arctic: arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
Reader: Try reading before spouting your religion. Hazado said: Global Sea Ice has gone up over <b>the last two years</b>. I.e. it has increased since 2007.
You are a liar: arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/seaice.html
Reader: Your responses are one of a cult follower (think Moonie, Scientologist, etc.) All your links are 404. Maybe the same is true of your ability to discern details...
"Pay no mind to the man behind the curtain..."
AL GORE JUST WANTS YOUR CARBON TAX MONEY TO FUND A ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT!!!
DON'T LET THE NEW WORLD ORDER WIN!!!!
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if Al over stated this "fact" i wonder what other facts the global warming set have "overstated"? the whole thing is moot. short of killing 90 percent of the worlds population there is absolutly nothing that can be done. even then it is useless. the world is in a correction . it is correcting from the Younger Dryus and the "mini ice age " that ran from about 1250-1850 AD. global warming is natures way of creating more fresh water and lage area to accomodate the increasing population.
thats "land area" not sure how i goofed that typo... maybe i am having a little "melt down" my self. thanks
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