Not too long ago, it seemed that California's Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to restrict marriage to be "between a man and a woman," was going down to a well-deserved defeat. Polls showing opposition to the measure above 50% reinforced the impression that the state where the courts just recently legalized same-sex marriage was an unlikely environment for a socially conservative backlash.
And the last time the matter was put before Arizona voters, in 2006, live-and-let-live westerners rejected the notion of preventing gays and lesbians from solemnifying their relationships, 51.4% to 48.6%.
But that was then; this is now.
The latest SurveyUSA poll (PDF) of California voters finds support for Proposition 8 at 47%, with opposition at 42%. The shift in favor seems to come from young people, ages 18-34, who moved from opposition to support the measure by 53% to 39%.
Along the same lines, Arizona's Proposition 102, which would also change the state constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman, wins 49% support to 42% opposition in the latest Cronkite-Eight poll.
The only good news is that Florida's anti-gay Amendment 2, yet another constitutional amendment, only has 55% support, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.
Good news?
Well ... yeah. That's because 60% support is required to amend the state constitution. Anything short of that is a defeat for the measure.
Hey, you take your victories where you find them.
It should also be noted that the California SurveyUSA poll results are a stark break from earlier polling, and are drawn from a small sample (670 likely voters) with a sizeable margin of error. So the news there might not be all that bad.
But for the same reason, the news from Florida might not be all that good.
And if California does formally define marriage as a monopoly of heterosexual couples, what happens to the 11,000 same-sex marriages that have been performed since the practice was legalized?
Cronkite-Eight Poll: Presidential race and Arizona ballot measures
Quinnipiac Poll: Florida Governor Crist and gay marriage
Contact J.D.: civilliberties (at) tuccille.com
Comments
"That's because 60% support is required to amend the state constitution. Anything short of that is a defeat for the measure."
WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! A simple majority is ALL that is needed to amend the California constitution.
From the state of California website:
"Legislative Constitutional Amendment
Whenever the Legislature proposes an amendment to the California Constitution, it is known as a legislative constitutional amendment. It must be adopted in the Senate and the Assembly by a two-thirds vote before it can be placed on the ballot. A legislative constitutional amendment does not require the Governor's signature. This type of amendment requires a simple majority of the public's vote to be enacted. "
http://vote2002.sos.ca.gov/2002-vig/default_sid=4&id=108.asp
Steve,
That may be true about the California constitution, but the 60% figure refers to Florida's Amendment 2 and the proposed constitutional change in that state.
Steve,
Your title is that of a Civil Liberties Examiner, but if you examine the facts, the passage of Proposition 8 will not limit civil liberties of gays/lesbians. Those civil liberties are already protected by California law. No new civil liberties will be provided or lost. There is a much greater risk of loss of religious freedom with the defeat of Proposition 8. California law already protects the rights of and prevents discrimination of gays/lesbians.
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