From the start of June until the last pitch Jake Peavy like will throw in 2010, the former Cy Young winner was pitching like a Cy Young winner.
In six starts from June 5 until he faced Mike Napoli with two outs in the second inning June 6, Peavy's ERA was 1.67. And while I argued that he had a pretty good May—not results-wise, but peripherals-wise—getting actual results in June was huge for Peavy. As the New York Times reported Peavy was having fun again (h/t: WinningUgly at South Side Sox).
And now, Peavy likely is out for the year.
Jeff Marquez was promoted from Triple-A to take Peavy's spot for now. Marquez won't get a start, though—he's only up in case the Sox need a long reliever while Tony Pena's arm recuperates from the longest outing of his career yesterday.
All signs point to Dan Hudson starting Sunday's game against Zack Greinke and Kansas City, and that will be the first of many starts Hudson will make for the White Sox this year.
And that brings me to the first consequence of Peavy's injury:
1. Dan Hudson will be in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future.
Hudson isn't without faults, but he's above and beyond the best, most major-league ready pitching prospect the White Sox have.
Hudson hasn't been the best about going deep into games, as he's only thrown 93.1 innings in 17 starts this year (an average of just over 5.1 innings per start). Oddly, he's had better numbers at home (3.18 FIP) than on the road (4.49) given that Knights Stadium is a notorious hitter's haven.
Currently, Minor League Splits says Hudson's major league equivalent would have a 4.51 FIP, which would be below the MLB average FIP of 4.17.
However, Hudson's numbers are skewed a bit by a brutal April (7.30 FIP). He posted FIPs of 1.70 in May and 3.65 in June.
And Hudson's near 5:1 K/BB ratio (10.38 K/9, 2.27 BB/9) bodes well for the majors.
While Hudson shouldn't be expected to to completely fill Peavy's shoes, he should be expected to do about an average job. Thanks to Hudson, the Sox will be able to absorb the blow of Peavy's loss.
2. Freddy Garcia will be counted on to make 30 starts.
Before the season, I figured if Freddy Garcia and Hudson each made around 15 starts, the back of the Sox's rotation would be safe.
Now, Garcia will be counted on to make double that.
Granted, Garcia is making his 16th start of the year tonight and hasn't shown any signs of wear and tear. But given that Garcia hasn't made more than 30 starts since 2006, he's not a guy who I'm exactly comfortable relying on to make 30 or more starts.
If Garcia needs to miss two of three starts, the Sox won't get killed by having to over-expose Carlos Torres. But if Torres (major league equivalent FIP: 5.00) has to make more than four or five starts, the Sox are probably going to be in big trouble.
3. The Sox should probably add some insurance at the minor league level, and they should do it quickly.
If the Sox go the free agent route, Braden Looper is an option, albeit not a very enticing one.
But here's a thought: the Sox should go after Pedro Martinez.
Martinez is planning on pitching this year, and although the Phillies likely would be front-runners, the Sox could have a shot if they aggressively pursue Martinez in the coming weeks. If Martinez was to sign, he'd need multiple weeks in the minors to get ready, which really would be perfect for the Sox.
First, those weeks would allow the Sox to what Hudson can do. If he struggles, Martinez could replace Hudson in the rotation if/when he's ready.
Second, if Garcia was to get injured, Torres could cover the starts to bridge the gap between Garcia and Martinez. It's not the most ideal situation, but it's one the Sox could afford to let happen.
And third, if Hudson pitches well and Garcia stays healthy, the Sox would have a surplus of pitching. And there's never anything wrong with that.
If the Sox trade for a starter, it likely wouldn't be Ted Lilly or any established veteran of Lilly's ilk (and don't even think about Cliff Lee. The Sox are not getting Cliff Lee). Instead, the Sox would basically be looking for Carlos Torres 2.0, an quadruple-A starter who wouldn't cost much to acquire. In other words, it'd be a lateral move.
So if the Sox are looking to add another starter, Pedro Martinez may be the best option available.
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Comments
I like your Martinez idea. The Phillies might not even be players for Martinez if they become sellers.
Another issue with losing Peavy is that your best trade chip (to pickup offense) is now an everyday player.
That's a good point--I think Cheat mentioned it at SSS. I'm not sure they were ever going to trade Hudson, but maybe that was a naive hope of mine. You never know with KW...but now, yeah, they won't trade Hudson unless a starter comes back in return.
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