The Bobby Jenks trade situation, or why the White Sox should trade for Matt Lindstrom

If the Sox trade Bobby Jenks, Matt Lindstrom should be targeted. (AP)

Will the White Sox trade Bobby Jenks or not?

That seems to be the biggest question that will dog the Sox throughout the upcoming months. Jenks is due for a raise to ~$7 million in arbitration, and the Sox may not want to allocate that kind of money to a closer coming off a down year.

But trading Jenks would also deplete the team's bullpen depth, as Matt Thornton likely would slide into the closer role. That would not only leave the team without a go-to left-handed reliever, but it would leave the team with an eighth-inning hole that would likely be filled by Tony Pena.

While I'm cautiously optimistic about Pena, I'm not sure he'd be a great eighth-inning option. I like him in a seventh inning role far more.

With all that in mind, Kenny Williams will listen to offers for Jenks at the Winter Meetings next week. Getting value for Jenks may not be easy given the glut of closers available through free agency or trades and comments made by Williams and Ozzie Guillen regarding Jenks' weight.

Let's say the White Sox do trade Jenks. Maybe it's next week, maybe it's next month—but when pitchers and catchers report, Jenks isn't in Arizona with the White Sox. That would mean the Sox would either need to find a closer and keep Thonton in the eighth or find a setup man and move Thornton to the ninth.

So let's first explore the second option—finding somebody to replace Thornton. Actually, it's inaccurate to say anybody could realistically "replace" Thornton. Not only was Thornton the most valuable non-closer relief pitcher in baseball last year, but he was a half-win better than the next-best left-handed setup man.

And even if the Rangers were shopping C.J. Wilson, there's no way the White Sox would take him.

Sure, maybe the White Sox could trade for a middle-of-the-pack left-handed reliever. Given the free agent crop of left-handed relievers, that probably would be the team's best option.

So the chances the White Sox can replace Thornton's dominant eighth-inning production with a left-hander are incredibly slim. Given Guillen's penchant for playing the percentages—after all, that's how Randy Williams finagled his way into 25 games this year—the White Sox will need a good left-handed setup man unless Guillen is willing to change.

It's unlikely that the Sox will find that solid left-handed setup man. So, naturally, that means the team should look to find a closer while keeping Thornton in the setup role.

But the Sox also don't have a lot of money to throw around. That pretty much rules out all free agent closers unless the team wants Kevin Gregg (let's hope they don't).

That brings me to the name in the title of the article: Matt Lindstrom. Yeah, Lindstrom wasn't exactly lights out last year. But there are two words that sum up why the White Sox should go after him: cheap potential.

Lindstrom is due for a raise via arbitration this year, but his 2010 contract likely won't top $2 million. At the least, he'll probably cost about $5 million less than Jenks. If the White Sox find a way to bring in a cheap outfielder for Jenks, the difference will probably come out to around $3-4 million.

That $3-4 million could theoretically go toward a designated hitter, then. Again, this is all in theory—the White Sox would have to find a team willing to take on Jenks' salary in return for sending a less expensive outfielder (or designated hitter) in return.

So economically, it might make sense for the Sox to get Lindstrom. It's contingent on a lot of things happening, but inserting him into the closer's role for a traded Jenks could help fill the two holes the White Sox have in the lineup right now.

From a performance standpoint, Lindstrom doesn't make as much sense on the surface. While his 2007 and 2008 seasons were excellent, he pitched primarily as a setup man in both those years. When he was moved into a closer's role in 2009, he struggled before landing on the disabled list with an elbow problem.

Preceding that elbow problem was a shoulder issue that Lindstrom encountered in the World Baseball Classic. Maybe, just maybe, that strained rotator cuff was behind some of Lindstrom's struggles leading up to his elbow problem.

That's a chance the White Sox should take. The Marlins may be motivated to move Lindstrom, too, so it's not like acquiring him is a pipe dream. Speculating on who it would take to acquire Lindstrom is likely a fruitless endeavor, but if the White Sox can get him for a pair of mid-to-low level prospects (C.J. Retherford & Clevelan Santeliz?) the team should jump at the opportunity.

Again, it's not like Lindstrom is a lock-down closer option—but if he can stay healthy, there's no reason to think he can't nail down 25-30 saves. So if the Sox are serious about going cheap the rest of the offseason, trading Jenks and bringing in Lindstrom does make some sense.

As a reminder, this entire Lindstrom scenario is contingent on the White Sox trading Jenks, and that's far from a certainty.

Anyways, here are some links for the day:

• Jim talks about the potential impact of the Cubs moving their spring training to Florida on the White Sox.
• Andrew makes a case for Robin Ventura going to Cooperstown.
• FanGraphs opened up fan projections, so be sure to enter your predictions for the Sox.
• FanGraphs also has their top 10 White Sox prospects, complete with input from South Side Sox.
• Brent Mayne reviews this year's Hall of Fame candidates and says Brent Mayne should be on the ballot.