Should the White Sox trade for a starter?

Can Dan Hudson be trusted, or should the White Sox try to improve their rotation short-term?

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Jake Peavy's injury and Dan Hudson's subsequent struggles have led the White Sox to discuss adding a middle-of-the-rotation starter before Saturday's 3 pm deadline.

Hudson has had one good start (albeit, against the Mariners) sandwiched between two bad ones. He hasn't had a consistently good breaking ball, rendering him a fastball-changeup pitcher.

Two-pitch starters often don't have much of a chance against major-league hitting, and they have even less of a chance when they can't throw strikes.

And Hudson hasn't thrown strikes in his three starts in 2010. In 15.2 innings, Hudson has walked 11.

For a guy who walked 29 in 91.0 innings with Triple-A Charlotte this year, his lack of control in the majors has been uncharacteristic.

And his lack of control begs the question: Should the White Sox get another starter? There are a few factors to consider before answering that question:

1. Will Hudson be included in a separate trade?

This would be the first factor, because if he is, the Sox almost certainly will trade for someone to replace him in the rotation. But if something falls through for a bat, the Sox still could look to upgrade the rotation without trading Hudson.

2. Who's available?

• Ted Lilly
• Jake Westbrook
• Paul Maholm
• Jeremy Guthrie
• Aaron Cook
• Dave Bush
• Livan Hernandez
• Brett Myers

There are other names out there, but these are eight guys who have seen their names thrown around in trade rumors lately. And I'm not sure any of these pitchers are a significant enough of an upgrade to warrant a trade to move Hudson from the rotation.

Lilly is a fly ball pitcher (his 51.4 percent fly ball rate leads all qualified starters), which would scare me even if he wasn't making the switch from the National League to American League. While his 3.69 ERA is nice, his 4.50 FIP matches with his 4.49 xFIP, so a regression very well could be in store for Lilly down the stretch even if he doesn't move to the AL.

Westbrook isn't a much better option despite being a groundball pitcher. His 4.65 ERA is right in line with his 4.67 FIP, and his 4.41 xFIP only inspires feelings of mediocrity going forward.

What Westbrook and Lilly do have going for them is that they'll be free agents after 2010, so they could serve as two-month stopgaps if the White Sox feel Hudson needs more time to develop his slider in Triple-A.

Maholm, like Lilly and Westbrook, is pretty mediocre (4.76 xFIP). But, unlike Lilly and Westbrook, he wouldn't be a two-month rental--he'd be under team control through at least 2011 and would be owed $11 million if his $9.75 million option would be decline for 2012. Plus, he'd cost more in terms of prospects than Lilly or Westbrook, so he's probably out.

Guthrie would cost more than Maholm in terms of prospects, and he's due for a raise in each of the next two years via arbitration. On top of that, he's just as mediocre as everyone else in this group (4.98 xFIP).

Cook represents more expensive mediocrity than Maholm and Guthrie, as he's owed about $15 million over the next two years (assuming his mutual option would be declined).

Bush is just bad.

So that brings me to the two best options: Hernandez and Myers.

Hernandez somehow has pitched well in 2010 (3.78 FIP to date), but that may not last. His FIP and xFIP have historically matched up pretty close, and his xFIP of 4.63 represents a major red flag.

But Hernandez would come incredibly cheap, assuming Mike Rizzo doesn't ask for amber waves of grain, purple mountains' majesty, and the shores of Tripoli like he has been for Adam Dunn.

Then again, a 4-5 of Freddy Garcia and Livan Hernandez would be shakier than a long game of Jenga.

Myers represents the best option for the White Sox if they do choose to add a starter. Unfortunately, Houston doesn't appear willing to trade Myers, despite that they could possibly get a decent return for a guy who already has been worth 2.8 WAR this year.

3. What about Garcia insurance?

This is the biggest argument I can come up with in favor of trading for a starter. Freddy Garcia has had an incredible year, defying all the odds to pitch pretty damn well in spite of his numbers.

But Garcia's start last Saturday against Oakland was a wake-up call: The White Sox should do anything they can to have a safety net in case Garcia falls apart down the stretch.

Garcia has made 18 starts this year, the most he's made in any year since 2006. While he hasn't shown signs of wearing down this year, it seems to be a reasonable fear that he'll run into some shoulder or arm problem before the end of the year.

Or that he'll run into an extended streak of ineffectiveness.

Maybe Garcia won't. But the White Sox *should* have some insurance in case he does.

4. So this really has nothing to do with Hudson, does it?

Yep. I'm confident Hudson can put together a halfway decent season for a back-of-the-rotation starter if he remains in the MLB rotation this year--eventually, I think he's going to straighten out his control issues and be okay.

If the White Sox trade for a starter, it shouldn't be because they want to upgrade over Hudson. It should be because they want to view Hudson as a backup plan in case Garcia (or somebody else) needs to be replaced.

Being able to turn to Hudson instead of Carlos Torres in the event of an injury could be important down the stretch. Best-case scenario, the Sox don't need Hudson as Garcia continues to roll with the slop he's throwing at opposing hitters.

But the worst-case scenario would be Hudson in the rotation. And that's a better worst-case scenario than Torres in the rotation.

Link's Awakening:

• U-God transcribed the blogger conference call with Jeff Manto and Kirk Champion, which I unfortunately missed.
• Jim tries to figure out Bobby Jenks.
• Erik discusses Omar Vizquel's Hall of Fame chances and comes to a conclusion I support.
• The Big Hurt says the Sox should add a starter.