Searching for optimism: Why all is not lost for the White Sox

Gavin Floyd could pitch like an ace in 2010. (AP/Chris Pizzello)

There's been a lot of negativity around here lately, and understandably so. The whole Jim Thome saga—culminating with him signing a $1.5 million (up to $2.2 million with incentives) deal with the Twins has put optimistic Sox fans on the brink of extinction. And that's not even mentioning how Thome's base contract of $1.5 million is the exact same dollar amount given to Mark Kotsay.

I could write up something about how Thome's signing with the Twins adds depth and power to a Twins team that has far surpassed the Sox offensively. Or I could continue to write about the Sox' potential lack of offense ad nauseum.

But I'm a generally optimistic guy. It takes a lot to turn me pessimistic—and while the Thome debacle has succeeded at that, I'd still like to focus on some positives here. After all, there still are 162 (or 163, given the last two years) games to be played in the 2010 season, and a lot can happen.

Believe it or not, a lot can go right for the White Sox this year.

1. The White Sox have a great starting rotation.

Not good, great. I'm higher on Gavin Floyd than most, only because he's one of the few pitchers whose "delivery flaw" excuse seemed to be valid.

I've talked a lot about the difference in Floyd from his first eight starts to his last 22, but it bears repeating: 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA, 35/23 K/BB, and .876 OPS in his first eight starts, 9-7 with a 2.97 ERA, 128/36 K/BB, and .610 OPS in his final 22. All in all, Floyd's 2009 was worth 4.5 wins according to WAR.

Floyd's projections expect him to regress to mediocrity, but I'm not seeing that. Floyd figured out how to pitch last year, and for the first time in his career, the 26-year-old (who turned 27 yesterday) pitched like a No. 4 overall pick.

As long as he can avoid some sort of nagging injury, I see not reason why Floyd can't pitch like a No. 2 starter for the Sox in 2010.

Floyd is far from the only one in the Sox rotation lending hope to 2010. If John Danks' blister problems are a thing of the past, he should pitch somewhere in between his 2009 and 2008 WAR (2.9/5.2).

While Jake Peavy shouldn't be expected to pitch as well as he did in his three starts with the Sox in '09, he's still an elite pitching talent who should put to rest questions about his ability to pitch in a hitter's league and park.

And then there's Mark Buehrle, who should be, well, Mark Buehrle.

I'm less optimistic about Freddy Garcia, but if he struggles or goes down with an injury, Dan Hudson should be ready to be a halfway decent fifth starter. While Hudson still has to work on his breaking stuff, his fastball and changeup are major league-ready at this point.

I don't like invoking comparisons to 2005, but this rotation eerily reminds me of the '05 staff. On paper, the Sox have four very effective starters, an injury-prone veteran righty, and a top minor league prospect ready to fill in for that aging righty in the event of an injury (although I'll take Hudson over Brandon McCarthy any day, and that's not necessarily in retrospect).

2. Don't write off Alex Rios just yet.

WIll Alex Rios ever be a five-win player again? Probably not—or, at least, we shouldn't expect it.

But will he be a -0.1-win player again? Again, we shouldn't expect it.

I know Rios looked awful in his two months with the White Sox last year. And he wasn't exactly lighting it up in Toronto before coming to the Sox in '09. But as I've been saying all offseason, one bad year punctuated by two awful months is not a trend until proven otherwise.

Yes, Rios' numbers were trending downward starting in 2008. You can look at his OBP falling into the .330s while his power slipped as well.

But, through all of that, Rios still had an above-average wOBA from 2006-2008. He wasn't injured in 2009 and it's not like he aged to the point where he's on the downside of his career. Rios just had one bad season—which isn't uncommon in baseball. Just ask Paul Konerko or Nick Swisher—both of whom rebounded after serious down years (Konerko: 2003-2004, Swisher 2008-2009).

For most baseball players around the age of Rios (who will be 29 in February), one bad year after three good years isn't a trend unless a significant injury or some mental issue is involved. Until proven otherwise, it's reasonable to think that Rios can return to a three to four-win range, which would be better than any Sox center fielder since Aaron Rowand.

3. Potential improvement from Gordon Beckham.

Beckham was a two-win player while playing just 103 games at foreign position as a rookie with the Sox last year. While he tailed off in the season's final two months, if he learns how to lay off high fastballs, his star only will continue to rise.

He has the power to his 20 home runs and and 40 doubles while possessing a good feel for the strike zone and enough speed to keep Ozzie Guillen happy. A shift to second base could improve his defensive metrics, too, as many natural shortstops succeed at second base.

Avoiding the dreaded sophomore slump won't be easy, but if there's anybody who has the talent to do so, it's Beckham. CHONE sees him as a 3.6-win player, and that number may increase if Beckham sees a boost in UZR from playing second base.

All in all, it's hard not to be excited about what's in store for Beckham.

4. The bullpen should be good, too.

It's always a dangerous proposition to try to project bullpen success, but the White Sox have a pretty good group of relievers—at least on paper. Bobby Jenks is in the Best Shape of His Life Club, but even if membership in that club doesn't lead to on-field improvement (as it often doesn't), he's still an effective enough closer to keep the Sox from losing the division on blown saves.

Matt Thornton has put together two of the most dominant seasons the last two years that the Sox have seen from a reliever and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Remember, there were concerns last year that Thornton would struggle because he pitched for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic—and he went out and had the best season for any non-closer relief pitcher in baseball.

A healthy J.J. Putz will add significant depth to the Sox' bullpen, too. And even if he gets hurt, the Sox have another capable right-handed setup man in Tony Pena.

Pena's another guy I'm higher on than most, it seems. The perception of Pena is that he's not good, and that was fostered in July and August—when the Sox were still in contention and most fans paid attention to the team.

The Sox fell out of contention in September, and that was when Pena finally starting throwing well. In 15 innings in September and October, Pena had a 3/11 BB/K while allowing just four runs.

I'm not saying that one month of success means Pena will pitch well in 2010. But that last month did give me hope that Pena's success from previous years wasn't a thing of the past.

A bullpen built around Jenks, Thornton, Putz, and Pena with Scott Linebrink manning mopup duties and Randy Williams being used properly (only against lefties) could be pretty successful. Throw in Hudson or Carlos Torres and the long reliever and the Sox could have one of the deepest bullpens in the division.

There, it's not all doom and gloom on the South Side. While losing Thome—especially to the Twins—stings, it's not the end of the world. There are still plenty of reasons to think the Sox can contend, no matter how bad the DH looks right now.

Really, it all comes down to pitching. The White Sox have a pitching staff that is built to make the playoffs, and Thome doesn't change any of that.