I guess you can give Mike Rizzo credit for sticking to his guns.
The Nationals general manager has maintained all along that he'll have to be blown away to trade Adam Dunn, which means the White Sox won't get him for a reasonable package of prospects.
I don't know how comfortable I would be with including Dan Hudson in a deal for Dunn, given that he'd likely be replaced in the White Sox's rotation by Carlos Torres. And if you consider Dan Hudson a B+/A- prospect, he's too steep of a price to pay for a half-season of Dunn.
Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs was spot-on when he wrote that B-level prospects plus filler would be what Rizzo should look for in exchange for Dunn. Instead, Rizzo isn't even looking for A-level prospects.
He's looking for major-league talent that's under control for multiple years. For the White Sox, that means Carlos Quentin or Gordon Beckham, as has been previously rumored.
I have to wonder how that conversation went between Rizzo and Kenny Williams. Maybe something like this:
KW: So, Mike, we want Adam Dunn.
Rizzo: Okay. He's only under contract through the end of this year and he's losing interest in signing an extension with us. So...how about Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin?
KW: *click*
Rizzo: Hello? Hello? OKAY, HOW ABOUT GAVIN FLOYD?!
I really fail to see where Rizzo is coming from in asking for so much for a rental player, no matter how valuable Dunn's production would be for a contender. The Nationals are years away from contending, and if/when they do contend, chances are Dunn won't be a part of that team.
(And if he is, he'll be the defensive liability who just produces enough offense to not be worthless)
Look, I know the White Sox don't have a stable of great prospects from which to deal. And Brent Morel, one of the few prospects who might be an attractive target for a team looking to unload a rental player, doesn't have much value to the Nationals with Ryan Zimmerman cemented at third base.
The Nationals could probably do better than a deal centered around Dayan Viciedo and a few filler prospects, though. They may not be able to do better than a deal centered around Tyler Flowers, though.
Ideally, the White Sox would hang on to Flowers and he could take over for A.J. Pierzynski after the 2010 season. Pierzynski shouldn't be a starting catcher beyond this year--his offensive decline (.284 wOBA) could be BABIP-related, or it could be the normal offensive decline catchers experience around age 33.
But if Flowers is dealt, the Sox would have to bring in a catcher from out of the organization, either via free agency or a trade. John Buck would be a nice addition, but after him, the 2011 free agent catcher crop is pretty weak.
Williams has shown a willingness to deal from the minors to improve the major-league club before, though, so even if there's no viable replacement for Pierzynski in place, he still could deal Flowers. That's not necessarily bad, either, as Flowers is far from a surefire major leaguer.
I guess, though, ultimately I'd like to see the Sox hang on to Flowers. They're going to have to be patient with the 24-year-old, as if he does assume the starting catcher role in 2011, he's going to go through some serious growing pains. But he should be a better option than whoever the Sox would pick up off the free agent catcher scrap heap.
So back to Dunn: if the White Sox can sell the Nationals on a package of Viciedo + two C-level prospects, they should make the trade. If the Nationals want Flowers (or Hudson), Williams should shift his attention to lower-level players like Adam LaRoche or Luke Scott, both of whom would cost less in terms of prospects than Dunn but still would be significant improvements over Mark Kotsay/Andruw Jones.
But at this point, it doesn't look like Rizzo is going to lower his demands from "ludicrous" to "a little more than reasonable" before the deadline.
Links:
- Jim offers his take on Dan Hudson's Monday start and trade availability.
- Matthew Carruth of FanGraphs looks at the seasons of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and J.J. Putz. (h/t: South Side Sox)
- The White Sox are not after Prince Fielder, says Ken Rosenthal. That's probably a good thing.
- Alex Eisenberg at The Hardball Times looked at the differences in Gordon Beckham's swing from 2009 to 2010. (h/t: Sox Bronze Titan)
- I was *supposed* to make an appearance on Adam & Jeff's latest podcast, but some computer issues screwed that all up.
- DOWNLOAD MY TRADE DEADLINE PRIMER!
Comments
Well, hey, hey, hey, let's not overrate our own players. We know John Danks is worth the same as Jose Lopez, and using that as a benchmark I think a fair price for Dunn would be Floyd plus a very average second baseman in Alexei Ramirez.
Also, I enjoyed the "Rizzo is acting like Adam Dunn is Ryan Howard" comment from Kenny, since this season Dunn kind of has been Howard.
The Nationals have nothing to lose if they don't trade done. They will obviously offer him arbitration if he doesn't extend otherwise they would take anything for him. The White Sox however have more to lose. Right now we are a playoff contender but we need another bat to be a serious World Series contender. I'd rather pay less for a LaRoche or Scott myself. Dan Hudson is going to be good for years to come and isn't worth 2 months of Dunn.
Adam Dunn: .403 '10 wOBA, .386 career wOBA, 338 HR in 10 seasons, age 30.
Ryan Howard: .379 '10 wOBA, .394 career wOBA, 243 HR in 7 seasons, age 30.
That is weird.
Right, striker. I'd rather hold on to Hudson long term and get Scott/LaRoche than deal him away, create an immediate hole, but get Adam Dunn.
I follow with you most of the way here. Beckham, Quentin or Hudson should in no way be part of a Dunn deal. The only place I differ is Tyler Flowers. If the Nats would take Flowers as the centerpiece of a deal, I'd very seriously consider it.
Honestly, Mike, I waffled on Flowers for a bit. By no means do I think Flowers is the answer, but he's a better option than any free agent catcher not named John Buck. My worry is that they'd trade Flowers and bring AJ back, leaving them with an offensive and defensive hole at catcher. Sure, AJ can work a pitching staff well, but there's no reason to think any other catcher couldn't do the same.
I guess my feeling is that I'd rather give Flowers a chance. But I'm not 100% on that.
I hear ya, JJ. AJ's bat is bad and only getting worse. He does a very good job working the pitching staff (tonight was great evidence of that) and that is definitely valuable. I could possibly live with his bat in the future if he hit 8th or 9th in the line up. But I'm afraid Ozzie might still consider him a "run producer" or a 5th/6th place hitter just because he is AJ and he bats left-handed.
If the Sox line up (now and in the future) is good enough that AJ hits 8th or 9th exclusively and is not considered an important offensive cog, I can dig it.
Sticking AJ in the eight or nine spot wouldn't be the end of the world, but if Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen are back next year, there would be a lot of potential liabilities or, at least, question marks in the lineup (Beckham, Quentin, and Ramirez for varying reasons)...I'm not sure the Sox will have that luxury.
But for all we know, Flowers could hit at an AJ-esque level in 2011. Again, I'm far from 100% on Flowers for next year.
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