The White Sox will have more than a few holes to fill in the offseason—but one of them won't be the fifth starter spot. We've seen how that spot can ultimately be part of a downfall for a team (Dan Wright, anyone?), so the fact that Freddy Garcia and Daniel Hudson have looked good down the stretch for the Sox is a major positive heading into the winter.
While it's a small sample size (eight starts, 49.0 IP), Garcia's 3.61 FIP is the lowest he's had since all the way back in 2001. Garcia hasn't had a sub-4.00 FIP since 2004, when he had a 3.67 FIP between the Mariners and White Sox.
When you factor Garcia's very good FIP in with his .298 BABIP, it tells you that Garcia hasn't been lucky in his short time with the White Sox this year. While Garcia's fastball is never going to get back to his pre-2006 levels (he's averaging 88.3 mph on that pitch this year), he's keeping it down in the zone while mixing in a lot of sliders and changeups in the upper 70's or low 80's.
Garcia hasn't lost the life on those pitches, and his ability to keep them down in the zone has led to him having some nice success this year. He's not going to be an innings-eater by any stretch, but he's shown this year that he can still be counted on to get quality starts when healthy.
"When healthy." Nobody knows how long Garcia can pitch before getting hurt, which is why the Sox shouldn't expect him to stay healthy through 2010. If he makes 20-30 starts, then that's really good. But the Sox need a backup plan.
And that's where Hudson factors into the equation. Hudson's still too young to be counted on as a full-time fifth starter, but as insurance to Garcia, he's perfect. He still needs to develop a third and, if possible, fourth pitch—specifically, if he can develop his slider and add a cutter—and would be better suited to do that in Charlotte or the MLB bullpen.
While it may take Hudson another full year to really develop those pitches, he's shown he can have some sort of success by throwing mostly fastballs and changeups in his two starts this year.
Scouting will eventually catch up with Hudson, which is why needs to be able to use his slider as an effective pitch, either as an out-pitch or a setup pitch. Essentially, he needs to get it to the point where hitters have account for it at any point in the count.
Doing that may take some time, which is why Hudson—barring a lights-out dominant spring training—should be viewed as a backup option heading into 2010. He only should be used if Garcia or another starter goes down with an injury—which is probably going to happen at some point next year.
2011 should be the target date to get Hudson into the rotation full-time. For 2010, though, a combination of Garcia and Hudson should be more than good enough to keep the fifth starter spot out of the "black hole" category.
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