For over a month, the White Sox were looking to trade for a bat. Then, yesterday, Kenny Williams traded for Edwin Jackson.
The White Sox tried to flip Jackson to Washington in a deal for Adam Dunn, but in the end, it appears Mike Rizzo's asking price remained outlandishly high. So, the White Sox kept Jackson and will stick with Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, and Mark Teahen—when he comes off the disabled list—to split time as the team's designated hitter.
It's somewhat surprising the White Sox didn't add a hitter before the deadline, but at least they didn't overpay for Dunn or Manny Ramirez (who still could be had in August).
So, with it clear the White Sox are going forward with Jackson, here's my take on the trade.
The return
Jackson is a 26-year-old right-hander with outstanding stuff who hasn't figured out how to maximize his repertoire. His strikeout rate has been a touch below the MLB average the last two years, which, for a guy with a power fastball-slider-changeup combination, it low.
He's also a pitcher who's had issues with walks in his career. His 4.02 BB/9 in 2010 is right in line with his career average.
His 2009 All-Star selection was a bit of a mirage, too. He had a good first half in terms of ERA (2.52) with Detroit, but that was largely thanks to an unsustainable .242 BABIP. Jackson had a much more normal BABIP of .312 after the All-Star break, and not surprisingly, he had a 5.07 ERA in the unofficial second half of 2009.
You may hear that, in 2009, Jackson had a good first half and a bad second half like any normal pitcher will see. Instead, Jackson's first half was due to a lot of random luck and his second half was due to that luck disappearing.
But Jackson has changed his approach in 2010. He's doing a fantastic job keeping the ball on the ground, as opponents are putting the ball on the ground 50.5 percent of the time a ball is in play off Jackson this year (compared to a 39.1 GB% the last two years).
That ground ball percentage could explain Jackson's 5.16 ERA.
Opponents are hitting .262 on ground balls off Jackson, which seems a little high. Gavin Floyd has a comparable ground ball rate (51.3 percent) and opponents only have a .220 batting average on those ground balls.
Arizona's infield is fairly average in both UZR and DRS. Alexei Ramirez has been great, Gordon Beckham solid, Omar Vizquel a tick below average, and Paul Konerko well below average by UZR/DRS. As long as Mark Teahen doesn't see significant time at third base when he comes off the disabled list, Jackson should have a somewhat better infield behind him.
If opponents start getting fewer hits on ground balls, we'll see Jackson's ERA fall. ZiPS sees Jackson's ERA as being 3.91 for the rest of the year, which would slide in very nicely in the Sox's rotation.
Jackson still is a very average pitcher, posting both a FIP and xFIP of 4.28. That's both mediocre and good. It's mediocre because a 4.28 FIP is, well, mediocre, but it's good because that 4.28 xFIP shows Jackson's 0.87 home run rate hasn't been due to luck.
That Jackson has turned himself into a ground ball pitcher should play well at U.S. Cellular Field. He's not Ted Lilly, whose high fly ball percentage would have worried me pitching at The Cell.
Then there's this whole deal of Jackson being a Don Cooper reclamation project.
Nobody should expect Don Cooper to magically fix Edwin Jackson. The White Sox have said they noticed something in his delivery that could help him, but I'll believe it when I see Jackson's walk rate go down.
I obviously have confidence in Cooper in any reclamation project, but expecting him to do so is unfair. Cooper can't fix every high-potential pitcher who comes to the team, although he does have a pretty great track record.
Honestly, I like Jackson. I love that he threw a no-hitter and saw his FIP go up. I think he'll do a nice job shoring up the back of the White Sox's rotation. But...
The guys traded away
...I'm a little disappointed the Sox couldn't get more for Dan Hudson (and David Holmberg, for that matter). Maybe Hudson wasn't viewed in baseball circles as being more than a back-end starter or reliever, which the White Sox apparently viewed him as.
But it seemed like there was enough buzz about Hudson that the Sox could have done better than Jackson in a trade involving him.
Honestly, I feel the same way about this trade as I felt when the Sox dealt Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers in the John Danks trade. I liked Danks, but wasn't infatuated with him.
And the fact that I remember hearing McCarthy's name thrown around in rumors for Carl Crawford made that trade hard to swallow at first.
Obviously, the Danks-for-McCarthy trade has turned out to probably be the best deal Kenny Williams has ever made. This Hudson/Holmberg-for-Jackson trade doesn't have the potential to be the second-best given that Jackson is only under contract through 2011 and is a Boras client, so he probably won't come back to the Sox after next year anyway.
Hudson still needs to develop a third pitch to be an effective major-league starter. He has a good fastball and good changeup, but without a slider (or curveball, which he infrequently throws too), he's nothing more than a middle reliever.
Reading between the lines, maybe the White Sox didn't think Hudson was going to develop that slider and cut bait with him while his stock was still high. Or, maybe they didn't have confidence he could pitch in a pennant race and sprung for a veteran. Or, it was a combination of both.
Including Holmberg in the deal was a bit of a head-scratcher, too. Was it really necessary to trade away a 19-year-old lefty who was a second-round selection last year (and a top 10 prospect, but that's in a weak Sox farm system) in a deal that already seemed lopsided toward Arizona?
It's probably not worth getting worked up about a 19-year-old who still has years before he could possibly reach the majors, but my reaction to seeing Holmberg's name was "they couldn't have offered anyone else?"
Is Jackson an upgrade over Hudson, though?
Probably, but not definitely. ZiPS projects a 4.21 FIP for Jackson for the rest of the season, compared to a 4.09 FIP for Hudson. But ZiPS also sees Hudson posting a 4.50 ERA while Jackson a 3.91, so even if Hudson pitches better, it sees Jackson allowing fewer runs.
Hudson's small sample-size xFIP of 5.18 couldn't have inspired much confidence, either. So, ultimately, Jackson probably will be an upgrade over Hudson for 2010. It may not be an extremely significant upgrade, but it's an upgrade.
Garcia insurance
Hudson also has a higher flameout potential than Jackson, and if something happened to Garcia while Hudson crashed and burned, the Sox would be in big trouble.
I would've rather seen the Sox add a starter and keep Hudson, sending him to Triple-A, but they're better insured against a Garcia meltdown/injury than they were with Hudson in the rotation.
What about the money?
The White Sox are paying all of Jackson's remaining salary, which totals somewhere in the $10 million range through 2011.
If anyone is still arguing that Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap, just stop. The Sox have added on the massive contracts of Alex Rios and Jake Peavy in the last 365 days + 90 minutes and now are going to pay Jackson a fairly hefty sum of $8.35 million for 2011. The Sox will have one of baseball's most expensive starting rotations in 2011 given that John Danks is due for a raise, too.
Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski could be replaced with the cheaper, younger Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers next year, but even if that's the case, the Sox will still have a pretty hefty payroll for 2011.
Money doesn't seem to be a major issue for the White Sox right now, which is fantastic to see in light of the poor economy and lower attendance. Obviously, the Sox don't have unlimited cash and can't shoulder bad contracts the way the Yankees can, but Reinsdorf and everyone else have shown a willingness to pony up some significant money in the last few years.
So even if Hudson develops and has a lot of surplus value over the next six years, the Sox appear to be able to deal with that loss, at least financially.
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