2009 White Sox player review: Scott Linebrink

Scott Linebrink struggled to justify his salary in '09. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Hindsight is always 20/20, but maybe a little foresight from the White Sox' front office would have prevented the team from being saddled with owing a scuffling reliever $10.5 million over the next two years.

When the White Sox signed Scott Linebrink following the 2007 season to a four-year, $19 million contract, he was coming off a season in which FanGraphs rated him as a -0.8 WAR player between the Padres and Brewers. Now, Linebrink's results weren't all that awful in 2007, but he had a high FIP and low BABIP—two indicators that a regression was imminent.

That regression has happened, and it's been amplified because Linebrink isn't pitching in a pitcher's park (Petco Park in San Diego) or in a worse hitting league (the National League). Going forward, the White Sox shouldn't count on Linebrink to contribute anything—meaning everything he does contribute comes as a bonus.
Luckily, Linebrink shouldn't be counted on to be the team's regular right-handed setup man in 2010 (that should, in theory, be Tony Pena).

Maybe there's some hope for Linebrink if he's used in low-leverage situations early in the year to build some confidence back up to use him later in games, though.
I don't mean to pile on the guy—Linebrink comes across as a very nice, pleasant person—but his numbers over the last two years speak for themselves. Plus, it's not his fault some team was willing to give him $19 million over four years.

Key stats
G: 57
IP: 56.0
W: 3
L: 7
ERA: 4.66
ERA+: 101
FIP: 4.61
BB: 23
BB/9: 3.70
SO: 55
K/9: 8.84
K/BB: 2.39
HR/9: 1.45
WHIP: 1.66
OPS: .875
GB/FB: 0.96
BABIP: .372
WAR: 0.2

The first thing that jumps out to me is the criminally high BABIP. That tells me one of two things: 1) Linebrink was unlucky or 2) Linebrink was bad, especially with command. The latter is more truthful than the former, in this case.

Hitters made contact with a whopping 87.8 percent of Linebrink's pitches in the strike zone, which actually isn't too much of a deviation from his career 84.0 percent clip in that category. What is a deviation is that hitters made contact with 68.5 percent of Linebrink's pitches out of the strike zone (career average of 53.7) and 83.4 percent of his pitches overall (career: 78.3 percent).

What's behind that? Likely that Linebrink tried to revert to his reliance on fastballs that he had with San Diego. However, FanGraphs rated that pitch as well above average in 2004 and 2005 (his two best years with the Padres) whereas it was rated as below average in 2009.

What's kind of odd is that Linebrink threw his fastball harder in 2009 than he ever had in his career. His average fastball velocity of 93.6 mph is a full mile per hour faster than his career average and he's only had an average fastball velocity above 92.9 mph once in his career before this year (2005, 93.0 mph).
But better fastball velocity doesn't guarantee success (see: Farnsworth, Kyle). You still have to locate your fastball, and that's where Linebrink struggled.

Linebrink is a dangerous pitcher in that he doesn't have an out-pitch and gives up a lot of fly balls (by dangerous, I don't mean dangerous to hitters). He doesn't have consistent enough control of his forkball/changeup for hitters to respect it, which means he has to rely on hitters putting the ball in play for outs. That's not an awful thing if a pitcher gets a lot of ground balls, but Linebrink doesn't. Getting outs on fly balls and line drives (which Linebrink did with the Padres) can lead to tenuous success that often comes crashing down.

For Linebrink, that's exactly what has happened.

I'm not sure if there's a quick fix for Linebrink. Yes, he could keep the ball down better, and yes, he could throw his offspeed stuff for more strikes. But even if he finds a way to reverse his career path and make those improvements, I'm not sure he's a guy the Sox should necessarily count on to get outs in big spots.

The best way to use Linebrink in 2010 would be to put him in low-leverage spots and try to build his confidence—and the team's confidence in him—back up. Maybe stick him out there in the seventh with a four-run lead and have somebody warming up just in case. If he falters, quickly yank him and hope the damage is minimized.

But if he has success in those spots over a month or so, maybe you consider bringing him in with the team only up two runs in the seventh or eighth. Even if he does pitch well in those spots, though, it's going to be tough for the Sox—team and fans—to ever trust Linebrink with a less-than-blowout lead ever again.