Gavin Floyd fought off regression with a very solid 2009 campaign. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)
Coming into 2009, there were some serious red flags for Gavin Floyd. Despite having success in 2008, Floyd had a low BABIP, high walk rate, and high FIP—three indicators that usually mean a regression is on the horizon. That is, unless the pitcher changes something.
Key stats
GS: 30
IP: 193.0
W: 11
L: 11
ERA: 4.06
ERA+: 115
FIP: 3.75
BB: 59
BB/9: 2.75
SO: 163
K/9: 7.60
K/BB: 2.76
HR/9: 0.98
WHIP: 1.23
OPS: .680
GB/FB: 1.34
BABIP: .292
WAR: 4.6
Floyd changed something in 2009, and in the end, he pitched better than he did in 2008. While the overall results weren't as good as 2009, Floyd made good progress this year that should pay off in the future.
Floyd got off to a terrible start to 2009, going 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA, 35/23 K/BB, and .876 OPS against over his first eight starts. Opposing hitters had a ridiculous .396 OBP against Floyd in that stretch.
But the White Sox discovered something after Floyd's May 17 start—he was tipping his pitches. That the Sox had discovered a tell in Floyd's delivery was actually reported by Peter Gammons during the first Jake Peavy trade proceedings.
It's no coincidence that Floyd's season line after those eight starts was great. In 22 starts from May 22 to Sept. 16, Floyd went 9-7 with a 2.97 ERA, 128/36 K/BB, and .610 OPS against. Yes, Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game, but Floyd was the White Sox' best starting pitcher from late May until a hip injury ended his season in mid-September.
Beginning with that May 22 start, Floyd had a completely different demeanor on the mound. There's no way to quantify it, but it just seemed like Floyd's confidence was higher and he threw with more authority.
What we can quantify is that Floyd's fastball velocity was higher than in 2008 (90.9 to 91.8 mph) and he threw more cutters/sliders (20.6 percent in '08, 26.9 in '09). The rise in fastball velocity was probably either a mechanical or offseason training thing and the rise in cutters/sliders thrown (FanGraphs' data says he only threw sliders, but pitch f/x often can't distinguish between the two pitches) was likely because he got more comfortable with his cutter—a pitch he only started throwing after coming to the White Sox.
Floyd's curveball was better in 2009 than it was in 2008, too. FanGraphs rated it at 2.69 runs/100 pitches, compared to 0.63 in 2008. It's no surprise that with the better curveball, hitters made less contact against Floyd in 2009 (77.8 percent to 81.7 percent in '08). And less contact means more strikeouts, which Floyd got.
Another key to Floyd's success was his ability to keep the ball down this year. His ground ball percentage went up about three percent to 44.3 and his fly ball percentage went down about six percent to 33.2 this year. As a result, Floyd served up nine fewer home runs than he did in 2008.
All of this added up to Floyd successfully neutralizing the expected regression to the mean in his BABIP, which went from .268 to .292. His FIP was a full run lower in 2009 than it was in 2008 as well.
The only knock against Floyd was that his home/road splits were pretty wide. However, a lot of that difference can be traced back to three straight road starts in May—before Floyd fixed the flaw in his delivery.
I didn't think Floyd could prevent himself from regressing this year, and I'll happily eat my crow. This year, Floyd not only showed me that he's more than a mediocre pitcher, but he showed me that he has the talent to be a top-of-the-rotation ace. Again, if you eliminate Floyd's first eight starts, he pitched like an ace in 2009.
While nothing is guaranteed, there's nothing I can see right now that would keep me from predicting a regression from Floyd in 2010. So long as Floyd can avoid tipping his pitches, I see no reason why he can't pitch like he did in his final 22 starts over the course of a full season.
And if he does that, the Sox will have another ace on their hands.
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