It’s been interesting watching the political partisans and pundits argue about the Harris-Decima poll on the long-gun registry and what the poll really means, but all spin aside, this poll is bad news for supporters of the registry.
Across Canada 46% of us say abolishing the long-gun registry is a good idea while 41% of us say it is a bad idea. That number alone should put to rest the notion that the nation will rise up if the gun registry is scrapped but it’s the numbers below the top line that are truly interesting.
While 71% of Bloc Quebecois voters support the gun registry just 48% of Liberal voters do. The party that developed and maintained the gun registry can’t even convince half of it’s supporters that the registry is a good idea. Among Liberal voters 39% think scrapping the registry is the right way to go which leaves 13% of Liberal ambivalent about the party’s biggest contribution to the law and order file. Perhaps this is why Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, just hours before the vote on scrapping the program, was musing about finding a form of gun control that works for urban and rural Canada.
Yet even in urban Canada 42% say scrapping the registry is a good idea while only 44% say this is a bad idea, women remarkably favour abolishing the registry 42% in favour to 41% against. This is bad news for those Liberals who felt that railing against the Conservative plan to scrap the gun registry would help them win back core voters. You cannot find a clear majority to support the registry in those core Liberal demographic groups, not one of them tilts above 50 percent in favour of keeping the controversial system of tracking firearms.
In fact the only groups in the entire country that Harris-Decima shows supporting the gun registry in the majority are Bloc voters as a group and Quebecers in general. The poll shows 56% of Quebecers support the gun registry, a level of support that I’d wager would go down if you took Montreal out of the equation or polled in the many rural ridings of the province. I wonder what this news will do to the perception that Canadians in general and Quebecers in particular support the gun registry. While at one point that support may have been there, years of reports on the program’s mismanagement and huge cost overruns, never mind questions about its effectiveness, means many Canadians have shifted their stance.
Even in Quebec.
If you ask any expert on Parliament Hill, even today, they will tell you that Quebec loves the long-gun registry, it’s just those yahoos out west and on scattered farms across the country that are not with the system. Part of that is true; Quebec loves the gun registry, if you define Quebec as Montreal and anyone in the regions who wishes they were in Montreal.
When Parliament voted in favour of the Conservative private members bill to scrap the gun registry many journalists were left scratching their heads, some just could not understand why 12 New Democrats and 8 Liberals voted with the Conservatives to kill the gun registry (the poll should stop some of that head scratching) but the people that really went nuts were the Quebec based journalists.
Some reporters working for French language media outlets got into shouting matches with MPs and cabinet ministers when it came to the gun registry. The vote was a slap in the face to the Quebec consensus said the experts, a consensus expressed in the unanimous vote of the National Assembly calling for the gun registry to be maintained. As with much of the Quebec consensus it turns out that the love the province feels for the gun registry is a myth.
If the poll doesn’t prove that, the by-election win for the Conservatives in Quebec should. On Monday the Conservatives stole a seat from the Bloc Quebecois, the only party to vote in unison to keep the gun registry as it is. For the Conservatives to even try to win this seat just after voting to scrap something Quebec holds near and dear to its heart just showed the party was out of touch was the line from many talking heads. Apparently some people need to get out into the regions more often. Bernard Generoux defeated Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon by five percentage points.
Norman Spector pointed me to a column by Vincent Marissal in La Presse, published on the morning of the by-election. While the main topic is something different, Marissal drops in a few lines about the gun registry at the end pointing out that not all Quebecers love the program.
“Five years ago, in the midst of the sponsorship scandal, Paul Martin's Liberals were amazed that during their tours of the regions, fishy publicity contracts were much less on the minds of Quebeckers than was the gun registry.
Stephen Harper knows that. He's doing what he does best: slicing the electorate into small segments, in order to scrape together the votes he needs outside metropolitan areas."
I think Marissal is partly right but I think what Stephen Harper is also doing is recognizing that there are more voices in Canada than those that emanate from Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. Harper is giving those voters a voice on issues that matter to them. In acknowledging that the Liberals may have been too doctrinaire on gun control in the past, Ignatieff is looking for a way to reach out to those same voters, knowing he’ll need some of them on his side if he ever wants to replace Stephen Harper as Prime Minister.
Brian Lilley is the Ottawa Bureau Chief for radio stations Newstalk 1010 in Toronto and CJAD 800 in Montreal. Follow Brian on Twitter to get the latest as it happens.
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Comments
Only if all the voters UNDERSTOOD the significance of the gun registry (the practical need for it) would any of this reasoning make sense. Unfortunately the majority of voters only follow the political rhetoric. The only option that makes sense to vote for is to follow the assessment of the users, the police!
d.ravea says the police like the registry so we should keep it. This is a false argument, because the police will ALWAYS be in favor of more power for themselves. Ask them if they'd like the right to stop motorists without cause, wiretap without a warrant, enter people's homes without cause, etc., the answer will always be yes.
The issue here is whether or not the registry is good policy. Canadians of all political stripes are increasingly deciding that it's a bad law. When government passes a law that is expensive, undependable, not enforced by all provinces, inconveniences millions of law-abiding citizens and is utterly ineffective, people don't like it. Future tax dollars could be more effectively spent in other crime prevention areas if this near-useless registry is scrapped.
Ravea:
Voters do indeed understand. They understand clearly that it did not work. They understood that it cost too much with zero effect. Only a fool would believe that a criminal would register a gun of any sort. For that reason alone it was a complete waste of time. Gun control always has the opposite effect it is trying to achieve. Australia and the UK banned guns left and right... gun crime soared. In the U.S. where law abiding citizens(note: LAW ABIDING)can carry guns on their persons in public in 40 of the 50 States. In every one of those States, gun/violent crime is falling faster than the 10 States where concealed-carry is not permitted. If you want to control crime, violent or otherwise, control criminals not guns. Making criminals out of law abiding hunters and farmers is not doing anything to curb gang violence in Toronto.
The registry didn't prevent or deter the Dawson College, Polytechnique or Mayerthorpe shootings. guns don't kill, people do.
Ravea made an excellent point regarding "carry" permits in the USA and the impact on gun/violent crime. Why not allow some properly trained females the "carry permit" in Toronto.(This is permitted under the current gun control laws, but has not yet been allowed). Then put out a news release to the effect that a number of people have been given the 'right to carry'. Odds on a crime rate drop anyone?
I fully agree with Rex Murphy's assesment of the current Platnium Gun Registry Program. As he quoted when a gunshot rings out in any city all the law enforcement officer has to do is tap a few computer keys on his way out the door. Within the hour he will have the culprit in handcuffs. Rex Murphy goes on to state the obvious that the gun registry costing overtaxed workers over two billion dollars and more is Useless by all definition. To expect to solve social issues with a restrictive law on law abiding citizens should be crime to itself. Just let it go.
Shouldn't there be some objective criteria by which all bills and current legislation can be evaluated?
Cost v. Benefit
Let both sides add/comment on their take on both sides of the issue so that the voters can compare facts to facts instead of spin to spin. Especially current legislation, one doesn't have to speculate the benefit. It's either their or it isn't. Ditto for cost.
Well the Gun Registry is just one example of Liberal Stupidity, there is a saying........
The difference between a Conservative and a Liberal is if a conservative doesn’t like something, they don’t buy it. If a liberal doesn’t like something, then they want no one to have it or they want to legislate it and tax it to death.
Pretty much sums up Liberals in a nutshell!
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