Budget approval Schwarzenegger's next campaign with voters

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger must back up this budget
victory with the approval of the voters next./AP

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger dropped in the polls and is under attack from his own party. Yet, he remains energized for the next stage of his historic budget battle, political analysts from around the state said this week.

“I’m getting all types of groups who are signing on to campaign with the governor,” Barbara O’Connor, director for the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media, said. “The minute he starts stumping on all of this (budget amendments) … and the advertising starts running with all these people behind him, I expect the polls will go up.”

While the spotlight shined brightly upon the passage of the state’s budget deal, the reality that voters could undo it by rejecting several budget-related propositions lurks in the shadows offstage.

“The budget deal pushes a whole bunch of it to the voters,” political analyst Tony Quinn said. “If even one piece of it is rejected by the voters, you run into the same problem … The budget only works if the voters go along in these special elections.”

For a governor that often finds the legislative details of governing less than interesting, the chance to wage another high-stakes campaign, one with the potential for a signature on his legacy as governor, should be more appealing.

“He is a retail politician,” O’Connor said. “He does best in those settings. And that’s what they have planned for him.”

Quinn agreed, saying, “He’s the only one who can really sell this.”

But Quinn said Schwarzenegger will have to rebuild the support he lost among rank-and-file Republicans to ensure the budget amendments pass.

“He’s walking a real tightrope on this and he’s suffering from the decline (in the polls),” he said.

Quinn said even business organizations are supporting the budget, where every alternative “is worse than the ones on the ballot.” Revenue from January and February was less than even the state’s bleak projections, he said, making the budget crisis a source of continued concern. Voter approval is critical for the state.

“Failure of this thing means the alternatives are even worse,” he said.

O’Connor however said not to read too much into the latest polls, which were finished the day after the budget passed. Schwarzenegger remains far more popular than the Legislature as a whole, she said, and the polls show a willingness among voters to be convinced.

“The Legislature is at 12 percent,” she said, “so while 38 percent for the governor is nothing to be excited about, it’s certainly better than the Legislature … People are really dissatisfied with government. They’re just sick of it. All they want is for it to work and its not. The field poll said people are absolutely willing to listen.”

The governor is absolutely willing to give them something to listen to, which makes the coming election, among the most important in Schwarzenegger’s tenure.

“He’s trying to build a legacy, he’s termed out and he’s got another year in a half to finish it off. His sole purpose is to build budget reform,” O’Connor said.