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We live in an era of instant information and short attention spans. Because of short…
Hey, you! Don’t skim over this part to get to the good stuff. It’s all good stuff.
As I was saying, because of short attention spans and the tendency readers have to skim over a writer’s sweat and blood, let me cut to the chase. (Those of you who are more patient and willing to read can keep going after this next part.)
The bottom line
As painful as it may be to hear this, BYU will go 7-5 overall and 5-3 in conference this coming season. Losses will include Oklahoma, Florida State, Utah, TCU and either Air Force or Colorado State. I will likely be wrong about some of these choices, but in the big picture, I am confident the team will finish with these records or ones very close to them.
I am very confident about the losses to Oklahoma and Florida State and fairly confident about Utah and TCU. The other loss(es) will come at the hands of another Mountain West team or two that the Cougars are supposed to beat.
Fear not, Cougar fans, the team will still get invited to a bowl game in spite of a sub-par season. The New Mexico Bowl or the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – or another like them – will provide Bronco Mendenhall with a break from the monotony of playing in the same bowl game for a fifth consecutive season.
Thank you for your time. You can now return to the website you were visiting prior to this one.
Questions
With just over four weeks until the Sooners and Cougars christen the new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas on Sept. 5, there is much excitement in Cougardom about the upcoming 2009 football season.
That excitement is centered on a tough non-conference schedule and a desire to reclaim the MWC title. There has been some chatter on the message boards about a run at the national championship, but really, how likely is that in today’s BCS-dictated environment?
Off-season recruiting victories have also pumped up the excitement level as the Cougar faithful are already looking forward to 2010.
In spite of this excitement for the 2010 season, there are several questions about the 2009 team that should be cause for concern in Cougar Town.
Will this year’s team – the last pre-Jake Heaps squad there will ever be at BYU – be able to rise to the occasion against Oklahoma and Florida State? Will big losses to Oklahoma and/or Florida State negatively impact the Cougars for the rest of the season?
Will the team be able to overtake Utah and TCU to recapture the MWC crown?
Will Harvey Unga be able to improve on last season’s sub-2007 performance?
Will the defense – which ranked eighth in the MWC against the pass and fifth against the rush in 2008 – be able to hold teams to fewer than 355 yards of total offense per game (sixth in the MWC)? Last year’s defense did a decent job at keeping teams out of the end zone, allowing 21.9 points per game, ranking third in the MWC.
Will the offense be able to rack up yards to lead the MWC in total offense like it did in 2008? Of the 444.8 yards per game the Cougars tallied last season, 70 percent came from passing yardage.
Will the rushing game be able to support the passing game? The Cougars ranked seventh in the MWC in rushing offense with a 134.4 per game average. Then again, BYU is rarely known for its ground game.
On paper, this season looks promising for quarterback Max Hall. Based on his numbers in 2007 and 2008 – and if he continues to improve at the rate he did during those two seasons – he will throw for over 4,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, and have a passing efficiency rating of over 160. But with Austin Collie gone, who is he going to throw to? Dennis Pitta, the team’s second leading receiver in 2008, is back, but other than him, it’s unclear who Hall’s top targets will be.
Receivers Luke Ashworth, O’Neill Chambers, McKay Jacobson, B.J. Peterson and Tyler Kozlowski are expected to play key roles in the Cougar passing game this season, but only Jacobson (28 catches, 547 yards and three touchdowns in 2006) has put up noteworthy numbers at the collegiate level.
There are too many questions about this Cougar team to expect them to do much better than .500. If I’m wrong – and I really hope that I am – I’m sure Cougar Nation will remind me about this article and the predictions made herein.
And if I’m right, we can all look forward to 2010 and the launch of the Heaps era.
Comments
Thanks for the laugh - too funny!
My favorite line - "There are too many questions about this Cougar team..."
That one really got me rolling.
That is pretty wishfull thinking. Obviously you are a Cougar hater and let show in your writing. Go find a corner, curl up in a ball in the fetal positon when the Cougs are winning.
I'm hoping Unga has a "sub-2007" season because he was really good in 2006!
As a BYU fan, part of me wants to say you are wrong and that BYU will beat Utah and TCU and they have a good chance against Florida State at home. But, I also prefer it when expectations are low for BYU. The Cougars tend to do better when they are not after perfection. My prediction is that the Cougars will only lose 2 games this year -- but I don't mind when the media predicts otherwise.
For a team that has won 18 straight home games for you to predict losses 4 times at home this year is ridiculous. While there are questions- the defense cannot get worse and the offense is still in good shape. I do not expect and undfeated season, but BYU with senior QBs are pretty dangerous over the last 30 years. Your skepticism has no real basis in fact- but then again I have never read anything of yours that is very positive about the Cougars. I do not find you sincere in your "I hope I am wrong". I do not expect writers to be homers like fans, but I disagree with your analysis.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! 7-5 .... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Still wiping my eyes. I know what's going on here: write something utterly insane and get people like me to leave comments. Then I tell my friends about what a terrible article I read, build up hits on your website. Well, no one's going to take you seriously after predicting 7-5. BYU had more questions in 2007, Hall's first year, and they went 11-2. I'm confident they'll achieve the same record or better. Losses to FSU and Tulane are the most likely, but I think they could lose to TCU and not Tulane. This isn't the year they break out of their 2 loss funk, but the losses, I believe, will be closer than we expected.
At least no one will accuse you of following any trends. If BYU loses 4 home games this year it will be the 2nd time that has happened in the last 40 YEARS.
The only REAL question mark is the O-line. BYU will distribute the ball better this year instead of force feeding Collie. They've said as much. More targets and more short receptions means less time in the pocket and less stress on the O-line. BYU will compensate. Offensive skill positions are strong (Hall, Unga, Jacobsen, Pitta, George, and a whole slew of 2nd year receivers who may be unproven but they know the system). Defensively, BYU will not be stellar but they will be better than last year's 10-win team. They have a solid returning linebacker core and MWC career leader in sacks.
You know all this Martinez. Still, your sloppy mentation and mediocre writing skill failed to translate this knowledge into a fair assessment of BYU's upcoming season. Your bias is breathtaking. Even Utah fans would project more wins from BYU this year.
Seriously, when you want to find a real reporting job again, you may want to consider your audience when you write. In this case... BYU fans.
It is not clever nor funny to be a complete idiot to try and rack up hits on your website... it is unprofessional.
You need to put down the writing pad and walk away.... far away!!
Kelly--Please stop writing about BYU football... we don't like you and you are doing nobody a favor with this sophomoric writing.
How can you sleep at night? I'm serious about the question. Either you are lying in order to increase site traffic (which is unethical and your concious should be ripping into you), or you are really that stupid and actually believe your prediction. If the latter is true, I don't knowif you even have sufficient inteligence to know that you need to go to sleep.
I thought it was funny that an article called "here's how it will go" (terrible title) consisted mostly of guesses and a long list of unknowns.
"Here's whats going to happen.....I'm probably somewhat wrong....but I am also confident that I may be kinda right...I think."
"Heres a list of things I dont know about the upcoming season..."
Do you even watch college football? What a clown
Somebody get this guy a Magic 8-ball. He should have just said: "I have no idea", and gone on to the WAC! Use FACTS man! This guy has to wear "lucky" undies...wouldn't want to see them though!
Let's see, the Cougars have gone 6-0 at home for the past 3 seasons and this year you predict they go 2-4??? You're right about the short attention span. I stopped reading your article at that point.
Ha! 7-5 in your dreams. I'd be surprised if the Cougs don't get at least 9 wins. The optimistic fan in me says 11-1 minimum, with 12-0 within reach! GO COUGS!
I don't know why this guy is still writing these terrible pieces. Not only is the content purely uneducated garbage, but it reads like my three year old daughter wrote it. And believe me, she could have. Only difference is, even my three year old daughter is smart enough to know the only game the Cougs aren't favored to win is week one vs. OU. And a week one upset still isn't out of the question.
Kelly Martinez fails. And that's not a prediction. It's fact.
You are right on - the Cougars will go 7-5 -- but that fifth loss will come against UNLV in Vegas. So only 3 home losses.
I don't know why I keep wasting my time reading this trash. I suggest Kelly find a new job. This work is elementary and biased. Stick a fork in yourself, Kelly, you're done.
7-5 this year. Check the stats on how well BYU does when they have a Sr. quarterback.
The mathematical odds of you being incorrect are almost 99%...
So, you're almost certain to be near completly correct about your predictions--in other words--you're 99% likely to be WRONG !
A big touchdown and 2 point conversion for you big fella #0l&S2M!!!
kelly,
I told you not to post crap like this do you want me to smack you again? I pick BYU to go 9 wins this year and I don't think they lose to FSU either. They will lose to TCU, OU, and Vegas. Remember who you are dealing with...BYU dominates this conference. They are the big brother. Predicting even one win at home is a bit sacriligious considering WE DON'T LOSE AT HOME KELLY!!! TCU is the BCS buster this year and that is how they get the umph they need to beat the might cougs at home...no one else will have that motivation.
Regards
And another thing, you said:
"he will throw for over 4,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, and have a passing efficiency rating of over 160"
Tell me how many teams have had Qbs do that (referenced above) and go 7-5? How many? I'm not looking this up because I've already wasted too much time but my guess is zero. If your QB does that it means they are running the ball down your throat too because you are dropping DBs and LBs to stop the pass, your probably winning the game because you throw 40 TDs in a year and your defense is playing conservatively with a lead. By the way we have a bend but don't break defense that is designed to give you lots of yards if you want them but when you get in the red zone you get dominated.
7-5
Gimme a break. Totally writing off Max Hall and Mendenhall like that just isn't fair to them or the other talented players. I predict that, at worst, they'll do about as well as last year and go 10-3, losing to OU, TCU, and one other MWC team but not Utah, with a bowl win over whatever patsy shows up to lose to BYU since they likely won't go to a good bowl.
I meant 10-2, my 10-3 prediction was a typo.
you cougar-ites are funny. just becuz someone has an opinion that differs from yours...is that really a good reason to insult them? maybe in your little bubble it is, but in the real world...c'mon!
as for kelly's prediction...who knows? that is the beuty of college football...and any sport...you don't know what is going to happen. if you did, what's the use of even watching???
i've said it before and i'll say it again...the majority of comments made in response to kelly's articles display more idiocy than anything kelly has written...and i've all of the articles he's done here.
kelly....dude, maybe it's time to ditch this circus...they don't seem to get that you're a voice of sanity.
What an idiot -- Martinez clearly is a Ute fan without any sense of objectivity or honesty. Either limit your reporting to the Utes (who lost their QB, a few other key players, their defensive coordinator, etc., etc., play a senior QB-lead BYU on the road, and will likely end the season with at least 3 losses), or just shut up.
Matinez, you talk about the hard work of writing an article and whine about how you feel slighted when people don't read the analysis, and then you proceed to fall on your face completely. You obviously know very little about BYU football, whats going on with this year's team, stats, history, trends, etc. The conference predictions by *somewhat* more intelligent people in more mainstream media have it about right, TCU #1, BYU #2, with Utah a distant #3 in the conference. Most pundits with some intelligence have BYU with 2 losses, 3 at most, 1 being optimistic but certainly a real possibility. Your "analysis" (and that's being generous) bears a lot of resemblance to the mindless, opinionated ranting of a Ute homer.
Where does this guy get his logic? First of all Colorado St. looses their starting QB and Gartrell Johnson and they return only 4 starters from a bad defense last year. You think they are going to waltz into Provo where we're undefeated for 3 seasons? How? Even Air Force is a stretch. We beat them on the road last year by 14 points with a worse defense than this year. Based purely off last year's scores, I predict something like 42-28 (with the 28 being very generous considering the loss of their QB and RB) and Air Force something like (42-14) since they only play us at home and can't throw the ball.
As for Florida St. Utah and TCU, with the success we've had at home the past 3 years all of those could very well be wins, most likely 2 out of 3 will be. Florida St. will faint from altitude sickness. The only logical lock for a loss is Oklahoma even though we may even have a shot there. And what gives him the nerve to call Harvey Unga subpar? Unga is the best MWC back this year.
When I read the comments here I can't help but laugh at all the people who obviously overpaid for their education. It is a game! Get over yourselves and try to argue the issue. If you have something to back up what your saying more power to you but your have nothing to say. BYU fans need to man-up and quit their whining, the proof is in the season and lets face it and BYU doesn't do as well as they should there will be nothing but a lot of excuses as usual. I'm so sick of the BYU fans that embarrass the school they remind me of the Jazz fans....most be something with the state a bunch of babies.
Ease up on Kelly, people. He's right; BYU is overrated and they won't be BCS-bound, so shut it already. Just because he says something you don't wanna hear doesn't mean he doesn't have the right to say his peace.
Some of you BYU fans need to watch some college football outside the MWC. If you think you have much of a chance against OU, you are kidding yourself!! Did you notice who won the Heisman Trophy last year?? (To educate some of you, who obviously do not know much about college football outside the confines of Utah, this award goes to the best college football player in the land.) He happens to be the returning starting QB at OU. Try that "bend but don't break" defense against the Sooners and see how effective it is!
I watched a middle of the road Pac 10 team give BYU fits in their last bowl game simply because of their team speed. Think they were fast? Wait until you see the speed that exists in the state of Florida playing for FSU!
Some of you lack the manners of Thumper from the classic movie "Bambi". "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all." You are probably searching for another opinion that differs from your own and planning your infantile attack.
On a more potitive note, I hope to see BYU pull some upsets and add more fuel to the fire in exposing the BCS for the sham that it is.
Despite the view of some of the fans expressed at this site, I pull for the Cougars. In a way they represent me, even though I am a USC fan, and I truly appreciate that. Some of the posts at this site come across as what I do not want BYU to stand for. Why I pull for BYU is the manner in which they play the game...with class. Something which is sometimes lost by some of us when we put our fingers to the keys and respond to Kelly and his opinions.
I do not profess to know much about the MWC, but I do know college football and consider the college football season to be the most enjoyable time of the entire year. Who knows how the upcoming season will turn out? And I am frankly tired of hearing the talk. I am ready for the season to begin so we so-called experts can enjoy watching the victories we knew would happen and the upsets which surprise us.
Care to retract your screwed up predictions Kelly? Sports critics have a job to do, but at the same time you guys pretty much are never right. Kirk Herbstret didn't give BYU a chance against OU and now has BYU at #5.
Go COUGS!
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