AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd
The Associated Press is reporting that the first suspected-but-as-yet-uncomfirmed case of swine flu has reached Minnesota. Two schools in Cold Spring, Minn., have been closed in an effort to contain the potential spread of the illness. Governor Pawlenty has scheduled a news conference about the state's response at 9 a.m.
In Texas, the first confirmed swine flu death outside of Mexico was reported. The victim was a 23-month-old, and the child had recently been in Mexico, where the flu has killed more than 150 people. According to the AP, Mexico's health secretary, Jose Cordova, stated that the death toll in that country has become "more or less stable."
The quick spread of swine flu all around the globe, with cases now reported in Mexico, the U.S., Germany, New Zealand, Spain, Canada, Britain and Israel, is linked to our ability to travel internationally with ease and speed. Still, some scientists say that bans on air and other forms of international travel are unlikely to prevent the outbreak becoming a full-fledged pandemic. Keiji Fukuda, the assistant director general for health security and environment at the World Health Organization (WHO), said Monday that, "WHO does not recommend the closing of borders and does not recommend the restriction of travel."
Speaking to New Scientist magazine, Alessandro Vespignani, a computer scientist at the University of Indiana at Bloomington, said that stringent travel restrictions are not going to be effective, "especially at this stage." Vespignani and his team are working to predict the spread of the swine flu; you can see their work here.
New Scientist reports:
A Draconian 10-fold reduction in airline travel would delay a pandemic by only a few weeks and have no effect on its overall health impact, Vespignani's team concluded. Other measures – particularly widespread administration of antiviral drugs – proved far more effective at limiting the spread of hypothetical pandemics.
What's more, the potential economic impact of travel restrictions could present a hazard to the already delicate U.S. economy. In short, the spread is already underway, and banning travel will hurt other aspects of society while doing little to halt the spread of the disease.
For the time being, wash your hands frequently, eat a healthy, balanced diet, get your exercise and always cough or sneeze into the crook of your arm.
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