On Friday, Oprah WInfrey made it official; her syndicated show will end a 25 year run in September 2011. What changes does this decision hold for the local broadcasting industry?
First off, ABC affiliates will see their early local news ratings decline. They have benefitted for years from the Oprah show's powerful ratings as a news lead-in. As Harpo Productions rolled out new shows such as Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz, clauses were put in the contracts preventing the broadcasts from being aired opposite Oprah. This action protected Oprah from strong competition and kept the ratings high. With Oprah gone in 2011, the field is cleared for those shows to be slotted into the 4 and 5PM news lead-in positions at the other network affiliates. ABC stations are left to scramble for a suitable replacement in a weak syndication market, with no obvious breakout stars on the horizon.
Secondly, CBS which owns the syndication rights for Oprah, will now not receive the hundreds of millions of dollars in syndication payments which it now enjoys. Oprah's personal take alone is said to be $275 million a year. They must now find a new show to sell the local stations as an Oprah replacement. In fact, the entire syndication business will very busy over the next two years, with studios fighting to get their products moved into the Oprah timeslots.
Is the Oprah defection to cable another nail in the broadcast coffin? I think not, the situation parallels the Howard Stern saga. The "King of All Media" was seemingly everywhere when he ruled the morning drivetime airwaves, yet his star dimmed considerably once the move was made to the Sirius pay satellite service. Other talent such as Ryan Seacrest and Steve Harvey stepped into the vacant slots and the shows continue to be profitable. Howard is still around but not nearly as dominating. The same scenario could apply to Oprah. Once the move is made to cable, she will still be around but not as prominent as on broadcast. It may take awhile, but new talent will be discovered, every bit as successful as Oprah, and another broadcast legend will be made.
NEXT COLUMN: How did Oprah get so rich?
Comments
Actually, every one that has tried to step into Howard's place on terrestrial radio has bombed miserably--look up Adam Carolla, David Lee Roth and a host of other tankers. Ryan Seacrest and Steve Harvey already had shows when Howard left, and their ratings have been in a steady downspiral.
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