NBC's 10PM Jay Leno experiment has ended disastrously for all involved with losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars for the network and its affiliates. NBC is looking at a five hour hole in primetime and the late night schedule still awaits Conan O'Brien's decision. The man responsible for this mess, NBCU chairman Jeff Zucker lurks in the shadows, leaving NBCU Television head Jeff Gaspin to try and fix what's left.
In a devastating article in the LA TImes, the one-time whiz kid Zucker in now viewed as "the man who plucked the peacock." The piece points to three decisions which led to the debacle. First in 2004, Zucker agreed to give the Tonight Show to Conan in 2009. As 2009 arrived, Jay was still number one and not happy to leave. Second, Zucker fired Entertainment chief Kevin Reilly and replaced him with producer Ben Silverman who turned out not to be good at managing NBC. That decision led to a number of bad shows and turmoil which lasted for several years before he was shown the door. Finally to prevent Jay from going to ABC, Zucker gave him the 10PM slot, which was hailed as a brilliant cost saving measure that would usher in a new economic model for television. Veteran TV executives have predicted it will take years for NBC to rebound from these bad moves.
The end of the Leno experiment was forced on NBC by their affiliates. All across the country NBC stations were seeing declines of 30-50% in their 10PM numbers, which in turn led to losses for their 11PM local news. According to an account at thewrap.com. as many as 12 affiliates were preparing to drop Leno and run other programming. NBC entertainment chief Jeff Gaspin knew something had to be done and quickly before affiliate defections became a stampede. Gaspin called Leno to inform him of the 10PM cancellation and offered him a 30 minute show at 11:35PM, which would push Conan back to 12:05 and Jimmy Fallon to 1:05AM.
The late night schedule now hinges on Conan's decision to accept the 12:05 offer or leave NBC. ABC is not an option at this point with a resurgent Nightline and Jimmy Kimmel. Fox has made some overtures, but most believe they are just stirring the pot. The Fox network contract has an option for a late night show, but most affiliates are locked into syndication contracts that would make it difficult to obtain wide clearances across the network at 11 or 11:30PM. My hunch is that Conan will work out an agreement to stay at NBC.
Conan has been a good soldier and done exactly what NBC asked, only to end up behind Jay Leno again. Critics say that Conan has not held Jay's numbers at 11:35, but it's not all his fault. Jay tanked the numbers beginning at 10PM, hurting the 11PM local news and Conan's lead in. With only a half hour show, Jay could tank again at 11:35 and the time period could be given back to Conan. Overlooked in all of the turmoil is the fate of Last Call with Carson Daly. Under the proposed late night shuffle, it will be pushed back to 2:05AM, into local station time. Last Call would then likely be cancelled due to low station clearances.
The architect of this disaster, Jeff Zucker, will be spending lots of time here in Washington working on government approval of the Comcast-NBCU merger. Maybe Comcast CEO Brian Roberts should take another look at Zucker's role before more damage is done.
UPDATE: Conan releases statement on Tuesday saying he will not do Tonight Show at 12:05, click here.
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