The following article was written by my associate, by Paul Noel with some editing and input from me.
New video showing largest hole from pipe 21-inches in diameter spewing oil and natural gas at ~4 barrels per second, along with analysis of the amount of oil on the surface, supports the estimates closer to several million gallons per day erupting from this hole BP popped in the ocean floor that contains a vast amount of oil and natural gas.
|
|
 Screenshot from John Wathen's video of the oil devastation. Here is shown some large vessels trawl around the huge Development-Driller-III which is drilling a side hole to reduce pressure or to plug up the hole dug by Deepwater Horizon. This is expected to take 2-3 months, considering hurricane season coming. |
Mainstream reports are starting to discuss the fact that the oil slick rising from the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico simply has to be a whole lot larger than first reported.
My first report on this stated that the total could easily be 5,000 barrels per day. I said this when the report was that only 1,000 barrels per day was the stated total. I was being cautious because I knew the total was much higher and I knew the public would not believe the real totals. Most people simply could not imagine a well of the size involved.
Now I will discuss the real facts that are known and what the educated guesses on the topic indicate. Prepare to get your jaw off of the floor. The facts are stunning.
Pre-Drilling Estimates and Assurances
BP estimated a spill of 165,000 barrels per day would not even reach land! That is what they told the US Government before they drilled the well. They had excellent science on their side, which you can begin to comprehend when you understand how oil reacts in salt water, as we will briefly discuss below.
The fact that the spill has reached land clearly states that the size of the spill is probably well above 200,000 barrels per day. Yes, that's BARRELS, not gallons. There are 42 gallons per barrel.
To get a full estimate we have to look at the process of sinking an oil slick and count money. A newly released video of the larger of the two leaks also contributes to our understanding of a minimum estimate of the flow erupting from this man-induced volcano of oil.
When An Oil Spill Originates on the Surface
Here is what happens when oil hits the salt water. If it is poured on top of the sea, oil begins to do several things. First some of it dissolves in the salt water. This dissolving is a bit limited but amounts to several percent per day of the spill exposure to the ocean. Some of the oil evaporates. This is several percent per day. This slows over time. As the oil dissolves and evaporates the parts that do this are primarily volatile fractions. These are things like Gasoline and other light components that go away pretty quickly. Once these are gone the remaining oil is heavy fraction crude. This begins to sink into the water very slowly, eventually falling to the ocean bottom over about 6 weeks. Typically this floats into an area where the shoreline is and embeds about 18 inches deep in the sand. This buried oil is not harmless. Just because the beach might appear on the surface to be clear, the sub-surface oil continues its toxic work. It locates precisely where the little sea creatures live, and it goes on killing them for about 10 years.
The reason a slick would carry farther than predicted is that the salt water is saturated with oil and the air around it is saturated, so the slick cannot dissipate. In the case of the BP Gulf leak, the size of the slick and the location of on shore oil say this slick represents at least 2 times the amount of oil BP estimated would never reach land -- or 330,000 barrels per day, minimum. This is an educated guess, borne out by aerial photos and the like.
When Oil Shoots Up Through 5000 Feet of Salt Water -- Fractionating Column
In the case of the BP underwater hole, the slick is not being poured on top of the water. It is coming up from the ocean bottom that is 1 mile deep at that point. That fact raises stunning questions on how big the well releases are.
Rising through 5000 feet of water, the oil is going through a process that the oil men call Fractionating. Literally the tremendous pressure and temperature issue are the equivalent of taking the oil and boiling it in a cracking tower 5000 feet high. The oil and Natural Gas change on their way up. The very light, easy-to-evaporate parts are all that is rising to the surface.
The heavy oil isn’t even getting to the top. That oil is losing its volatile fractions and is being dragged along with the rising column into the surface water where it is probably distributing as tar balls that are not being skimmed up or burned or otherwise dispersed.
In fact the chemicals added at the well head to disburse the oil, speed this process up. This oil is mixed into the water for the top 250 feet or so. Salinity and temperature issues probably keep this oil from ever reaching the very top of the water. The exact behavior here will not be known until studies are published some years from now. This is the first time humans have encountered a deep ocean leak of this magnitude. We're in uncharted territory here. Volume per volume, it is highly probable that due to this fractioning, this oil blowing into the ocean from a mile down is causing far more ecological trouble than a surface spill of similar size.
It is also certain that the slick volume on the surface is substantially lower than the rising column of oil. This is a key point to bear in mind. Because of this fractioning, what you see from the air on the surface of the water represents maybe just 20% of the volume of the various types of oil in that area. And we're talking an area the size of Maryland (10,000+ square miles) that is on the surface. The remaining 80% is under the surface; and all of it is highly toxic to the living organisms encountered.
All of this brings into serious question the volumes of oil rising. Every factor suggests massively higher numbers than what has been commonly reported.
Video of Slick
Here is a video that Alabama resident John Wathen shot as a volunteer pilot flew him over the area where the Deepwater Horizon oil rig sank. He said, "It's not a leak, it's a volcano spewing oil."
|
|
As we watch this, and see other photos and videos from the air and ground/sea level, we can agree with Wathen's comment: "The Gulf appears to be bleeding," which is chilling, considering the prophecy in Revelation 8:8: "The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze [appearance of the burning rig and slick], was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed." Most ships cannot travel through oil-infested waters without damage, any more than jets can fly through volcanic ash-infested airways.
Budgeting an Oil Rig
There is also another factor that says that the numbers are vastly higher than published to date. That is money. The BP investment in this well is very high -- close to a billion dollars. They must earn over $5,000,000 a day off of the well in order to pay back their investment. (That was before the explosion, and doesn't count the cleanup costs, etc)
They were, until the well blew, extremely happy with the well. In fact, on the day of the explosions, executives were on board celebrating the well's success.
This well had to produce over 60,000 barrels per day in order to break even. Shocking as it seems, this well would have been closed in and disposed of had it produced a minor total like 20,000 barrels per day. That would have been a "Dry Hole"! It wouldn’t have paid for the pipes to bring the oil to market. The fact that BP management was aboard the rig and very happy, celebrating, just prior to the explosion says the well probably produces more than 200,000 barrels per day. It might well have produced 500,000 or more. Royalties to the US Government multiply the numbers for break even by about 2:1 so 500,000 barrels per day is very realistic. And that is what they would have been celebrating while things were under control.
With this in mind, remember that this well is running wild. A wild well produces far more than a well during normal production. This is why it is so dangerous. The conclusions for how much is coming up are simply unbelievable.
Natural Gas
The Natural Gas emissions are stunning as well. As you watch the film remember the pipe is 5 feet in diameter.
The Natural Gas doesn't just bubble to the top of the ocean and release into the air. It is absorbed into the water, like air is absorbed, and actually creates oxygen depletion. Hence, the emission of natural gas of these volumes into the sea is producing a significant area of Oxygen depleted water in the Gulf of Mexico which may be very large threat to fisheries and other wildlife in the area.
Never forget this point. The spill was "Impossible" by the view of the oil men prior to this. The biggest cost of the spill cleanup is being borne by the US Armed Forces such as the National Guard etc. None of these costs will ever be paid by BP. These costs will appear in taxes not in the price of oil. Alternative Oil is vastly cheaper and safer than this.
Video from Largest Leak
Below is a video of oil spewing from the larger two holes. As you look at this, it might seem like a small hole, and a small amount of oil. But bear in mind that the diameter of the pipe is 21 inches.
Oil and gas stream from the larger of two existing leaks on the riser of the Deepwater Horizon well on May 11. (CNN, via YouTube; May 12, 2010) |
What Could Yet Come
This is not a system in stasis. This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with between 20,000 and 50,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away. It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas.
 The oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico could be stopped with an underground nuclear blast, a Russian newspaper reports. (Slashdot; May 11, 2010) |
What we are seeing now could be small compared to what may yet unfold if things break apart, as they can do under such circumstances. If this thing blew, it could be like the Yellowstone Caldera, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it.
That would be an extinction event.
It is not likely to happen, but it is within the realm of possibilities.
That's the kind of stuff we're playing with here.
When we humans go tinkering around with this stuff, it is like the movie of men flying space ships to asteroids and setting off nuclear bombs to deflect them from hitting earth. Except in this case, setting off a nuclear bomb on top of a veritable volcano spewing oil from what is presently a relatively small hole in order to shut if off, doesn't seem like a very good idea.
Postscript
There is no way to get the size of this in mind. It is just too big to imagine. The slick is now as large as Maryland and growing. It will grow probably for 90 days or more. Even if contained tomorrow it will set the record for biggest in history.
Here is a fairly safe estimate of the economic damage to tourism, fisheries and the like in 3 US states. (AL, MS, LA) Over the next 10 years this will cost about $1 Trillion Dollars. BP will not pay this. This does not count damage to ports and trade generally. There is no way out now. What do Texas and Florida get ??? How about the east US Coast or even parts of Mexico? Does this go all the way damaging England and the northern EU? It certainly will not stop with just 3 states.
Imagine how much alternative energy work that would have produced. Now it is all waste. Now we must do it while it is hard. Imagine how easy it would have been a year or two ago when it was argued it was too expensive.
We have to turn around from this way and never look back. Freedom, prosperity and happiness will not be found in that eruption of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
Some might think that I am against the oil industry. Actually I view them [rig workers, not execs] as some of the bravest most heroic people we have ever seen on earth. I have to say this plainly. I am in awe of many of the things they accomplish.
I just know that we must get a brighter future. This one has no hope.
Epilogue
The Transocean rig drilling right now to relieve the well is drilling a 28 inch well ASAP. The just spudded in the well and are already a mile down. (Ref.)
They are trying a smaller well to go fast. It isn't 21 inches per the report you are hearing from others. The numbers on the Transocean rig are for the drill pipe size. The inside hole of the drill pipe is 18 inches and the outside is 21. The platform numbers are for a 60.5 inch drill platform opening. This is what fits the outer casing. It is used to torque the casing down into the well. The platform is used at the turntable to torque the well drill pipe.
I have seen lots of these wells. They are really 5 feet in diameter. It sort of shakes you up to see something that big.
http://www.gulf-shores-alabama.net/gulf-mexico-mobile-ferry-dauphin-island.html
You want to see some look at the pictures. That platform I have been right there around it several times. The ferry is fun. Everything I described is on the Gulf High Island 2 rig and some associated production platforms. This is very old technology dating from the late 1970's and early 1980's. The oilfield service launch here is 250 feet long and looks like a tub toy next to the rigs. (in the pictures for the ferry) I have similar pictures. The field came into production about 1992 or so. I have been around the launch and where it docks.
They drill these wells often decades before they use them.
We have about 9,000 square miles of oil out there. My only question to doubters is how big of a house has to fall on you. The stuff is really big out there. When one compares this to Exxon Valdez it is important to understand that this is an open water spill with wave action to disrupt it. The water temperature is in the 80 degree range causing much more rapid degrading of the oil than in Prince William Sound. There have been massive efforts using disbursant compounds in this spill. There are many many factors that are different. This is light crude rather than heavy crude. It reacts quite differently.
The real question should be why people want to believe so low numbers. A spill of 10,000 Gallons is 328 barrels and is just one tanker delivery truck. Your local gasoline station can drain one dry in a few minutes with gravity. They claimed the spill was equal to 3 of these early on. You could have lost that much oil in a few waves out there. Increasing that to 15 a day still is so trivial that it would have been of no concern. You could stop up such a leak with nothing. It wouldn't be anything to stop a leak of 5,000 barrels a day. That is a trivial oil well size. 5,000 barrels a day is about equal to spilling one tanker truck every hour and 15 minutes. That would be a simple chore to shut off. Please get your head on here. Your local gasoline station unloads a tanker truck at about 5 times that rate. River barges hold like 5,000 barrels of oil. Sink one and it makes a modest slick in the Mississippi river.
Spilling that much crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico off shore like this would never even come to mind at 5,000 barrels per day. BP was entirely right in their report to the Minerals Management Service that 165,000 Barrels Per day would never even reach land. This slick is coming ashore now. The well is belching about 300,000 barrels to 400,000 barrels per day. That is beyond doubt.
The reason there was no safety plan has many reasons but one of these was the company figured it was impossible to bring ashore a slick from that far away. The Gulf of Mexico is vast. It soaks up many things.
May 15 Update and Correction
Take a look at the May 15 story in the New York Times: Scientists Find Giant Plumes of Oil Forming Under the Gulf.
This represents the oil per my prediction including the distillation that I told you was happening with the tar balls. The stunning implication is that I was wrong in quantity and the leak may in fact be much larger than I said. My curiosity has to do with the motion of these mats. Will they sink or will they warm up and float up somewhere? Big surprises and not fun ones could be in store. I sort of suspect they will hang around and wander for a while and then rise to the surface. (Only a suspicion-- Lets hope it doesn't happen!) Round and round they go, where they stop nobody knows.
Just one mat the size described represents over 240,000 barrels per day over the entire spill duration and the article implies more than one of these! We are absolutely safe to say I am totally confirmed on oil volumes and then some. The article suggests 4 or 5 such mats. If this is so the gush could easily have exceeded 1 million barrels of oil per day.
I can safely say now that if there was any doubt of what I was saying about the leak there should be no doubt now.
On a side note: I just learned from Alabama sources that the situation is far worse than is being portrayed. No facts to describe this except that qualitative analysis.
Sterling the riser is in fact and I was wrong on the size it is a 21 inch riser. Sorry to all but none the less it is massive. Even if the pressure were 20,000 PSI shouldn't that about be Sci-Fi to most people. You don't want to stand in the way of that for sure. I suspect based on the mat sizes that my pressure statements are correct.
The facts are that BP has just kicked out into the ocean a spill that is much more than equal to Exxon Valdez every day for 18 days now. It could be 3 times that every day.
I will say it now and without any reservation: The heads of BP, Haliburton and Transocean should be arrested and tried under the Common Law for crimes against humanity and against nature itself. On conviction they should be executed for their crimes as a monument to corporate management that you should never consider to do such evil deeds again. What has happened here is beyond war crimes. It is absolutely evil what they have done. Silence and no action on this licenses more disasters to come.
BP testimony before Congress states that their worst case was 60,000 Barrels per day. That estimate is at least 7 times too low to account for the now observed facts. I am assuming only one such mat exists for this estimate. I can only guess based on this that my estimates could be low by a very wide margin. I am definitely not high at all.
My apologies for any errors that may have allowed distraction, but this situation is vastly out of hand.
I think if you realize that one mat described is about 1.7 cubic miles in size, and the well keeps on blowing and easily could do this for years, you get a hint of the size of the oil deposit under the Gulf of Mexico. At this rate the Deposit could deliver in 1 year something in the order of 35 cubic miles of oil. It could blow for a decade or more if it is not stopped. It isn't anywhere near out. I just hope they get it corked up shortly. That relief well they are drilling could blowout too!
I told you there was a "dragon" down there! [Symbolism] I have warned people that he has only nipped us. [Symbolism]
This is by no means the limit of this deposit. You could get many times this much out of the deposit. The facts that have now come to light should absolutely settle once and for all the following facts.
[1] There is no energy shortage.
[2] The oil men have been manipulating us terribly for decades.
[3] That solving the energy needs of the world using oil is too costly and unbelievably dangerous for us in so many ways that only a crazy person would try.
[4] Alternative energy is a much better option.
[5] If I was wrong it was because I was too conservative. ...
A warning here: The removal of 2 cubic miles of oil from this deposit is setting us up for a sea floor collapse. We could see earthquakes, tsunami and worse. We may get by with very little or no problem but the risk grows each passing day. I do not want to predict such. I only say they are possible. Action at Petronius nearby has in the past caused 4.0 earthquakes and near Atmore Alabama they also caused similar earthquakes. I think the shifts and energies there were actually much lower.
Please note the discussion of depletion of Oxygen in the water columns in the article. This spill is going to assassinate sea life in massive quantities. Unaccounted for in their studies is the massive quantity of natural gas escaping which is probably even more damaging in this respect than is the release of oil.
I know I have sounded insane to some. I wish I was wrong. I wish above all things that this could get stopped up and we could at least begin the process of recovery.
Sterling: It was a bit of hyperbole that this could kill all life in the oceans but now it seems more like the plague in the bible where a 1/3 of living things in the sea died and the sea became as blood. I am not trying to say it is that bad, but it is awful. People have to understand the massive dangers here.
All of this having been said, I am not against deep sea drilling. I am in favor of strict safety management of the oil drillers. I am in favor of being more careful. I have nice words to say about the heroism and bravery of the oilmen who risk their lives in trying to get us oil. I am dead set against the killing of our earth in a reckless mad rush for saving a few dollars on the way. We demand safety of our Airlines, how much more should we demand of these people.
A painful analysis of the energy situation has to be made. Mankind must turn away from oil but in turning away it will take 50 or 60 years to make the turn. Until that time we will need oil. This is something that will take much time and effort. It is the work of lifetimes. I have supreme confidence that we have the ability to do this. But even the best solutions require much time. We have to start the journey. It is time for us to head for the land where we will be Beyond Petroleum and not with BP. Wasting time here only assures more sorrows.
# # #
Paul Noel, 52, works as Software Engineer (as Contractor) for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. He has a vast experience base including education across a wide area of technical skills and sciences. He supplies technical expertise in all areas required for new products development associated with the US Army office he works in. He supplies extensive expertise in understanding the Oil and Gas industry as well.
While not an "expert" in the field, he knows nearly as much as most industry experts. The difference? He's not afraid to talk.
Born in Lynnwood Washington, he came to Huntsville Alabama, when his father moved to be part of NASA’s effort to put men on the moon. Neil Armstrong may have gotten the ride, but his father’s computers did the driving.
Paul is also a founding member of the New Energy Congress.
Previous Coverage
|
|
|
Additional Links
- Marine scientists study ocean-floor film of Deepwater oil leak - Marine scientists were carefully viewing footage of oil and gas billowing out of a ruptured well on the ocean floor today, to try to deliver the first reliable estimates of the crude gushing into the Gulf of Mexico – it could be as much as 70,000 barrels a day. (Guardian; UK; 13 May 2010) (NPR)
- Size of Oil Spill Underestimated, Scientists Say (NY Times; May 13, 2010)
- Million gallons of oil a day gush into Gulf of Mexico - Interviews with surviving Deepwater Horizon rig workers show how explosions led to what may be the world's worst oil spill (Independent; UK; May 9, 2010)
- Gulf Oil Spill - Radar Satellite Image May 8, 2010 - Rigorous calculations are linked in this article estimate over 1 million gallons a day (SkyTruth; May 8, 2010)
- Oil Spill Pics - sobering (Boston.com; May 12, 2010)
- First Underwater Images of the Gulf Oil Leak (What BP Won't Show You) (TreeHugger; May 12, 2010)
- BP.com - company website
- Deepwater Horizon.pdf - brief history and photos of fire.
- Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher 30 Apr 2010 'The following is not public' document --A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. "The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."
|
 |
Some Links to this Story
- http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/10/05/13/ . . ./A-Volcano-of-Oil-Erupting-Million-Bpd
- http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2512994/posts
See also
|
Comments
Stirling, this is the second time I've seen you describe the oil pipe as being 5 feet in diameter. Actually, it's more like 1 foot in diameter. Just thought you'd like to know.
how come you couldnt use a dowel made of steel, starting small and eventually getting to the size diameter of the hole, and sliding it inside the pipe opening until it gets to the diameter of the pipe and then welding around the steel pipe with robotics, i am sure a submarine could be outfitted to shove it into the pipe, then weld around the outside perimeter...just an idea.
Hmmm... 4*24*60*60 = 345600 bpd - how good is your other information?
If your pond holds 400,000 gallons, that's nearly 10,000 barrels, not 1,000.
Good lord man, this is depressing enough without failing basic math. You are mixing up barrels per day and gallons per day. It is gushing over a million GALLONS per day, or 25,000 barrels per day. Each barrel contains 55 gallons... stop mixing the two up, it makes greens look stupid.
Actually, 42 gallons/barrel when used in the oil industry. Doh.
Wikipedia to the rescue.
You say the pipe is 5' in diameter. MSNBC says it's 21". The latter seems more realistic to me.
There are many inaccuracies in this article. First of all, the diameter is no larger than 18 inches, not 5 feet (60 inches). There is no rig capable of drilling a hole that large that deep, nor would anyone want to anyways because it would be extremely uneconomical. How does drill torque correlate with diameter anyways? The oil/gas would flow just as well in a 12 inch pipe. Secondly, have you ever distilled crude oil and/or extensively studied its' properties? If you had, you would quickly realize that oil and water do not mix. Water is a polar molecule and oil is not. Lastly, your worst case scenario is extremely off. 150,000 psi is equal to a column of water 346000 feet (65 miles) tall bearing down on one square inch. Does this reservoir really extend into space? A trillion barrels? Please don't be so ridiculous; Saudi Arabia (with the world's largest reserves), only has 267 billion barrels to produce. A trillion barrels is roughly the top 7 countries combined. Go back to software.
If the larger of two holes produces 364.6k barrels a day, and the other one less, how do you get to 1 million barrels a day?
How is your 'trained eye' getting 5 feet with no frame of reference, you're just making up numbers.
You're talking about showing how 'large' the spill is with a video which doesn't show more than half a mile total of the ocean surface and even then its not completely covering the surface.
Why don't you just go ahead and put your sales pitch in for whatever alternate energy source you're trying to sell in the article too, it'll save a lot of people a lot of time.
Editors: you really need to look closely at what you put on examiner.com. I don't care what your caveats are for content origin. All I see is an alarmist, error-riddled story complete with bible quotes with "Baltimore Examiner" at the top... By a *software* engineer who "supplies expertise."
5 feet in diameter? Your entire "article" reads like some whining eco-nutjob that really doesn't have a grasp of what is going on, and just makes up facts and figures that just don't add up.
Get a clue, you twit.
Wow comments here are really petty. You all worry about the measurement of the barrel, and the diameter of the pipe, when we're being drowned in oil? Seriously, people like you disgust me. Worrying about technicalities won't help anybody at all.
I'm not sure what's scarier, the likely inaccuracies of this article or Daves response.
Dave, do we actually need any more justification for alt energy that what is currently happening in the gulf?
It's quite simple. We will get off oil or die. I don't believe we survive the oil age. We are to blinded by economics and greed.
Please refer to www.theoildrum.com for analysis of happenings in the oil industry, they are following this gulf leak very closely. OP appears to have merely wanted adwords income.
URGENT call in NASA!! GET THE WELL HEAD FROZEN WITH LIQUID NITROGEN
-100 DEG THE OIL WILL Solidify STOPPING The FLOW. THEN CUT THE PIPE
OF AND CAP IT.!!!
Seriously, is there a single number in that article that has any resemblance to reality?
Hopw hard is it to aat least get one guess right when you just make it all up?
A founding member of the New Energy Congress. No bias or conflict of interest there. Back in the day, journalists used to do this thing call fact-checking. That's were you check to see if the material you are about to publish are accurate. Not only wasn't this article "fact-checked", it wasn't even "laws of physics" checked. Even if you accepted his ridiculous SWAG that the hole is 5 feet in diameter, a simple call to one of the local universities could have put you in touch with someone will actual fluid dynamics expertise, and let you know just how preposterous his fear-mongering really is.
@Petroleum engineering student:
What would material trapped at high pressure beneath 7 miles of bedrock have to do with going into outer space? High pressures can even be created in laboratories on the Earth's surface--no need to stand miles and miles of water on end.
Please tell me you aren't this stupid. Of course Oil in the ocean is bad. Fear mongering like this is worse.
Numbers shmumbers. I am curious, though, if his thoughts around "fractioning" are legitimate, and whether there's more oil lurking under the surface because of it.
Anyone? Any reservoir engineers around to weigh in?
Bull. This article is scaremongering beyond belief. It has absolutely no valid ground.
First of all, you're a bloody software engineer.
Secondly, the currently estimated world oil reserve isn't "trillions" of barrels, so how could one reservoir contain that much?
Thirdly, quoting the bible?? Really? That's your proof?
Fourthly, The bloody pipe ain't 5 ft.
Fifthly, Lean math.
There are undoubtly more points, but I can't be arsed to spend more time on this pile of bullsh..
Neil, I like you idea... but instead we should shove the dowel in Stirlings butt.
Slark: the ~4 barrel per second figure is an approximation of what was come out of *one* of two (now three?) leaks found in this mess. Even so, 345k barrels per day is an insane amount of oil.
This is piles on upon piles of misinformation and crap.
sensationalism at its best.
Trillions of Barrels of oil? I stopped reading at that point. Fact: There are not Trillions of barrels of oil in the gulf.
Fact: There are not trillion of barrels of known conventional crude around.
Get your facts straight, your full of sh@#
Reservoir pressure is caused by weight of rock & water and would be less than 25,000 psi.
Calderas are caused by molten rock, not oil & gas, but even those haven't made life extinct. The typical caldera is 100,000 times Mt St Helens.
Oil & gas in this area exists only in really small cavities, the spaces between the sand grains.
It's got a long way to go to approach Ixtoc 1 the Pemex blowout in the Bay of Campeche.
My god trillions of barrels? Thank the lord our energy problems have been solved! Drill baby drill!
Or....Perhaps you could get your facts straight, there simply isn't that amount of oil concentrated in the gulf...or left on earth.
Looks like everyone else beat me to the "sensationalist, bad facts, bible quote, awful math" bits. So I'm stuck with petty. Dude, how proud would your dad with his computers be if he knew you couldn't even get the name of the first man on the moon right?
You can't get even simple math correct. Readers should go google drilling info and educate themselves on drilling operations. Just propaganda stories to scare the children.
What's funny is that there have been a couple of videos of people on the beaches near the spill with "balls of tar" that have washed up. Which fits with his description of the heavier part of the fractioned oil, and the real output of a refining operation on land.
You spelled "disperse" wrong. "Disburse" means to pay out; "Disperse" means to scatter. Trust me, they are NOT paying out oil from a leaky well.
As if there weren't enough factually wrong with this article, the guy compares aircraft carriers as 'toys' to drilling rigs.
The page for Development Driller III he links to says it's 255x257 ft. A quick wikipedia on a Nimitz class aircraft carrier (the George H. W. Bush) shows it to be over 1000ft long and displaces twice as much tonnage as the drilling rig.
Are there no editors at your news organization? No fact checkers? How do guys like this get an article into the news?
For those chiding us about quibbling over 'minor inaccuracies', when you have to immediately write off an article as complete hyperbolic nonsense, it just makes it even harder to accurately assess and take seriously the issue at hand - how to fix the problem in the first place.
For the love of god, get your math corrected there.
It's a 21 inch pipe, not 5 foot.
Your back of the envelope analysis of pressure and flow rates are so far off it's not funny.
There's nothing minor or funny about this drilling accident, which is quite serious and potentially devastating to the wildlife and economy in the Gulf. But it's not the sign of the apocalypse. There isn't enough oil there for an oil volcano. The amount of oil you've quoted as being under that well exceeds the total world inventory of oil. The seas will not boil and hail will not come down upon us.
Perhaps learn math and physics first, write column second.
The article makes two strong arguments for a leak of at least 200K barrels/day: the amount of oil the platform would need to extract to recoup investment in the platform/operation, and BP's estimate of how much oil would have to leak in order to reach the coastline. Multiple methods are used in this article to arrive at an estimate, and while the numbers used in some calculations may be wrong, taken together they make a stronger argument than the ones I've heard from mainstream news sources, which only parrot the unsupported numbers they were told at the news conference, with no effort to investigate or calculate further.
Some other facts cited that are correct are that BP's liability is capped (and probably completely covered by insurance companies the US recently bailed out), the Mississippi is shut down, and this will have a Huge negative impact on all gulf industries. Except oil cleanup, I guess.
Sterling, Paul;
Three words:
Get a life.
No, I mean a real life. One that you actually have to slave to Da' Man, produce real results. Where you will loose your job if you report isn't on time, accurate and reproducible.
I can't believe /. actually linked to this.
Guys, you're assuming this is appearing in the website of a real newspaper. The Washington Examiner is tabloid trash a step below the NY Post. Even the Washington ("Moonie") Times has more credibility.
Man, these comments read like the starting line up of a propaganda machine. I guess the BP PR machine is working overtime on this one. Only 3 out of 20 comments can be considered in agreement up to mine. So only 1.5 out of 10 people has anything negative to say about what could be the worst ecological disaster in US history, the rest think your spelling sucks and you are talking out your butt.
Is anyone else troubled by the fact that we seem to value money over life? What has to happen before we realize we are all just slaves to money and lambs being led to the slaughter in some Orwellian nightmare? I look at the pictures and video and can give a crap less about your spelling. I am horrified! Not only at what happened, but that our leadership, empowered to protect us, has failed so miserably. This is yet another mountain of money our grandchildren will be paying interest on. So yea, learn how to spell, Dink! That's out biggest problem!!!
Very good article; lots of things to think about.
Whether your numbers are right or wrong, there's no question that this is oil slick is BIG. We also know that it's continuing to grow. And people aren't even talking about HURRICANES.
What would happen if a hurricane pushed this oil slick towards shore, then pounced on a major city? Imagine a hurricane lashing a city with water and oil.
It's truly amazing that an oil spill of this size remains a largely invisible disaster. I fear it won't remain invisible much longer. Hurricane or not, it's going to hit a lot of people very hard.
This is yet another wake up call, a call for corporate accountability. If I had the power, I'd put everyone responsible for this in prison for life, including BP officials and shareholders, George W. Bush and Obama. This is simply incomprehensible.
Someone wants the world to end in fire and smoke I used to think it was Phillip Morris, but it must be British Petrol, thanks Obama for wanting to drill some more. I hope they go to hell when the burn comes, but I think they will escape to a tropical planet they discovered with James Camron. Is that what Avitar is really about? I hope the blue people can come here and save us.
Why do people keep saying "largest disaster in US history", instead of the more accurate "largest disaster in history"?
It's "disperse", not "disburse".
One can only hope that the OP learns to shut up until such a time as he knows what he's talking about.
And yeh, his bud the software engineer might have a bit more cred if he were a geophysicist rather than some schlub, software engineer.
Most ships cannot travel through oil-infested waters without damage, any more than jets can fly through volcanic ash-infested airways.
A ship is driven by a propeller, which is driven by a sealed shaft, oil does nothing, nothing at all to a ship, other than to make it dirty.
The only revelation here is that the this wannabe is trying to generate clicks, or maybe he buys all that Jesus stuff, either the article is almost entirely bullshit.
And what does he mean by this: I said this when the report was that only 1,000 barrels per day was the stated total. I was being cautious because I knew the total was much higher and I knew the public would not believe the real totals.
The authour says he is modifying his analysis and predictions on the basis of what people will "believe", that's how a con man thinks, not an honest actor.
This guy should give it a rest and stop trying to scare people.
5 Foot Pipe Estimated Gallons
In a Seconds
SF sf of a 5 ft pipe Volocity Ft sec Cubic Feet Covert to Gal Gallons per Second Barrel Barrels Per Second In A Barrels a day Oil to gas Barrels a day leaking
Day
5/2 x 5/2 x 3.14 19.625 10 196.25 0.133680556 1468.051943 42 34.95361769 86400 3,019,992.57 0.66 1,993,195.10
Man, these comments read like the starting line up of a propaganda machine. I guess the BP PR machine is working overtime on this one. Only 3 out of 20 comments can be considered in agreement up to mine. So only 1.5 out of 10 people has anything negative to say about what could be the worst ecological disaster in US history, the rest think your spelling sucks and you are talking out your butt.
Is anyone else troubled by the fact that we seem to value money over life? What has to happen before we realize we are all just slaves to money and lambs being led to the slaughter in some Orwellian nightmare? I look at the pictures and video and can give a crap less about your spelling. I am horrified! Not only at what happened, but that our leadership, empowered to protect us, has failed so miserably. This is yet another mountain of money our grandchildren will be paying interest on. So yea, learn how to spell, Dink! That's out biggest problem!!!
i have to say in all sincerity....that i HATE corporations...
Banks, Pharmaceuticals, Insurance, Oil, Developers....the lot
Yes, this oil spill is very bad. But, if this guy wants to write a proper article then he needs to heavily revise it. It's like he just wanted to put something out and did not bother to proofread or fact check. I'd like to see some serious number revisions and inline citations. This article is merely a hyperbole, numbers distorted, personal opinion, piece.
What is really sad is how I hear other people regurgitate crap information like this.
Sure, it's a disaster, but...
Who ** does this guy think he is? He's a software engineer. *** are his relevant credentials.
"Trillions" of barrels? The largest oil field in the world, Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia, held an estimated 90 billion barrels before drilling began draining it. There is no field in the world which holds "trillions of barrels"- and in fact, all fields combined do not contain "trillions of barrels". Please, do even the tiniest iota of fact checking before you publish next time - your credibility is in tatters at this point!
Pages
Got something to say?
Examiner.com is looking for writers, photographers, and videographers to join the fastest growing group of local insiders. If you are interested in growing your online rep apply to be an Examiner today!