Unofficial "Firepower" poster
The moment is arriving, and it is time to make a prediction for the November 14 mega-fight. After countless hours of research, analysis, and pre-fight observations, we reach a conclusion. To quote an ancient Chinese proverb, "the journey is the reward." In the Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs. Juan Manuel Marquez fight, I predicted a wide unanimous decision for Floyd. This one has a far different outcome.
The Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto will be an extravagant event - but the night will end in an anti-climactic conclusion to the war. And the army of an archipelago will march victorious under the Arc de Triumph.
Cotto, he is one of the most courageous welterweights of this generation - a brave warrior who never backs down. He insists on meeting a challenge. Unfortunately, that ring adversity comes in its maximum form straight from the sport's summit. Pacquiao is not just the pound-for-pound lion king, he is also an all-time great. One who is gunning for a historical seventh title in an incredible seventh weight class. HBO's 24 / 7, the marketing gurus, will cast its magic dust and successfully convince millions of viewers that this is not an overrated fighter (Cotto) whose best days are in the past. The series will effect a mass delusion, resulting in greater pay-per-view dollars. On Saturday's fight night, Cotto will undergo a nightmare, a humiliating and embarassing defeat at the hands of a humble monster.
Pictures from Pacquiao's and Cotto's last 10 wars
This conclusion is arrived after spending years studying the art of warfare. Secondly, this bout is misleading - it actually comprises of Pacquiao AND Freddie Roach vs Cotto. Two masters fighting one soldier. By the early 5th round, millions of viewers around the world will witness the unfolding of an uncompetitive fight. And by that 5th round, it will be increasingly apparent that the brave warrior's spirit (Cotto) is being crushed and demoralized. For boxing fans such as myself, who sympathize greatly with these tremendous competitors and gladiators, it will be gut-wrenching to watch a demoralized warrior. We explore the critical reasons why the destruction takes place.
Unofficial "Firepower" poster
. . . General MacArthur instituted a series of amphibious thrusts with such lightning speed that the bewildered enemy, completely surprised, was successively overwhelmed. The islands . . . were in rapid succession reconquered, liberated and restored to civil rule.
- General George C. Marshall in a letter to the U.S. Secretary of War during World War II and describing the Philippine theater ("Reminiscences," General Douglas MacArthur, p. 254)
Significant Advantages for the Philippine Typhoon
Manny Pacquiao - my friends - holds significant advantages over his Puerto Rican foe. Make no mistake.
Cotto's lead left hand allows Manny to attack with his own left on Cotto's inferior (and slower) side
First, Manny's lead right, and power (back) left, combined with superior footwork, allows him to circle to Miguel's (weaker) right (side). Thus, Pacquiao will almost certainly land left jabs, left hooks, left uppercuts, and left crosses at will and all day. This is the critical difference between the two (the stance), and probably the reason why Roach signed off on this very winnable fight for his client. Cotto is naturally left-handed, but stands with his power left hand as the lead (front) hand. Manny, on the other hand, is also left-handed, but has a more natural stance by having his right as his lead (front) hand.
Pictures from Pacquiao's and Cotto's last 10 wars (click for slideshow)
Prediction: Pacquiao by 6th round TKO
Left-handed fighters (like Cotto) who have an uncommon stance of leading with their left hand typically do not have good footwork. Cotto is an average fighter in the middle of the ring. And he will have sparse chances of cutting it off. Manny, blessed with superior speed, also has tremendous footwork. Under the tutelage of Roach, the General Santos native can employ a variation of the peek-a-boo style of Joe Frazier, this time awkwardly moving side-to-side to Cotto's left and right. This type of movement is very difficult to time - there is a reason why after millions of years of evolution, snakes (and crocodiles) employ this movement. They are one of the oldest creatures in the animal kingdom that survive to this day. The left-to-right and vice versa, side-to-side movement, combined with up-and-down peek a boo movement, distorts a prey's vision and critical thinking skills. The rapidly changing background picture further confuses the eyes and one's judgment on distance and speed.
When a F-16 is in a dog fight, being chased by a Russian MIG, it rapidly and unpredictably moves left and right, and right to left in a confusing manner. It can also swiftly dive down or climb vertically up, and the pursuing Russian pilot is perpetually wondering which way the F-16 will go. At high pressure speeds, it taxes the body to the utmost. In this case, Cotto is like a big plodding tank. Even if he moves forward, Manny emulating a snake, or a F-16, Cotto will have an extremely difficult time guessing where Manny will pop up next. His only big weapon is that strong left, which Roach has trained Manny for. Pacquiao will move away from Cotto's power left, or alternatively get off with his (Manny's) right to Cotto's body to remove some of that power. Surprise (and deception) is most critical in war. Pacquiao will obsessively unleash his power lefts on Cotto's right side. That is Cotto's inferior side (because the Puerto Rican is left-handed) and he will get bludgeoned by Manny's strong side.
Manny's strong side against Miguel's right (and weak) side
Manny's weakness, historically, is facing against a right-hand dominant fighter (i.e., Juan Manuel Marquez, Erik Morales, and Floyd Mayweather, Jr.). Because Manny's strong left is met with an equally skilled strong right - Pacquiao can get countered with short distance separating the two. It's a matter of physics and geometry. That right jab from a right-hand dominant fighter has to travel much less distance in order to connect and land on Manny's face. But with Cotto, he will need to counter from his lead left hand, which has greater distance separation when Manny is on his right. That extra distance gives Manny much more time to react with his impressive reflexes. And while Manny is unleashing blinding combinations, Cotto will have to close the offensive shop. Anticipate Miguel's right eye to shut close by the 7th round and fight Manny with only one arm (his right hand will be painfully gone by then).
The new arsenal in this fight will be Pacquiao's upper cut combinations. He has already incorporated "Manila Ice," which are his right hooks. Cotto forms an open triangle by placing both his gloves close to his eyebrows. His nose will be bleeding by the 3rd round - swarming shots will land straight through that open pike, and with brutal accuracy. It is with solemn hope that Miguel Cotto does not get hurt too badly in this fight, or get sent to the hospital for serious injury - which is possible, given Pacquiao's sheer punch output (ala David Diaz fight).
Prediction & Conclusion
The first round should play out as a feeling out round for both fighters. The second round sees Pacquiao starting to land flush combinations on his opponent, with the decibel noise reaching fervor levels. By the third round, especially with Cotto bleeding, the audience will begin to witness a one-sided fight with the momentum clearly shifting in Manny's favor. By the 5th round, this will be an exciting but uncompetitive fight, with Cotto trying desperately to hang on, and perhaps last for a 12 round decision. Not to be. He is the bull, and the Filipino is the matador. Cotto is a mighty tank that ran into a versatile aerial helicopter equipped with adjusting missiles - particularly landing on Cotto's right (and weaker) side. Cotto's right eye will be shut closed by the middle of the fight. There is a reason why he (Cotto) has been training with an eye patch, because he is anticipating fighting with only one eye on November 14. Manny Pacquiao possesses superior fists on both hands, and the Filipino's Blitzkrieg left alone should land at least 15 punches per round. Multiply those 15 power left connects by 6 rounds. Pacquiao wins by an impressive TKO stoppage in the 6th round - over the soon-to-be former welterweight champion Miguel Cotto. As mentioned, all boxing fans should hope no fighter suffer a serious injury in a fight being billed as "Firepower."
After the fight, we may see some "hanky panky" showmanship. Top Rank is the sole promoter for this event, and therefore holds access to the ring. It is possible that Floyd Mayweather, Jr. might pull off a stunt and talk trash to Manny as he is being interviewed by Larry Merchant (or Max Kellerman). A more likely scenario is a desperate Shane Mosley rudely interrupting Pacquiao's triumphant interview to angrily demand a fight. That is a big no-no in his culture, which values respect. But MGM Grand is located in shock-entertainment America. Will we see a fracas and pushing and shoving inside the ring? Time will tell. It might happen.
Pictures from Pacquiao's and Cotto's last 10 wars (click for slideshow)
In closing, we return to the second Great World War. After General MacArthur's successful reclamation of the Philippine islands from the Japanese, J. Edgar Hoover conveyed a congratulatory letter:
. . . I think all of us on the home front view with tremendous admiration the phenomenal success with which you have met in the battle of the Far Pacific, and to have attained that success with so little is one of the miracles of this war. Particularly [it is] true that those of us who had the privilege of knowing you, feel a great pride in that friendship.
The essence of that message, written a long time ago - by great and now-deceased men - and by warriors in their own right, resurrects and physically manifests itself in the squared boxing ring, on November 14th - a night for the Ages.
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Comments
I have to disagree here on the outcome. While I suspect that Manny wins by KO over Cotto, Miguel will make him pay for it. I say the Puerto Rican fighter lands his heavier hands on manny and knocks down Pacquaio at least twice before cuts and exhaustion overcome him. He isn't washed up, but Cotto simply is not the same fighter he was before he got messed up in Margarito-ville. Still, he has a size advantage that should mean something when Manny comes in.
Worth your money!
I will help out and be used to wrap this guy Manny's hands. They said i'll be a big help to beat Cotto. Oh, i like being used.
because he is his friend obviously he will be betting on him...
they were dirtbags. And Hoover was a closet-queer who porked little boys.
to: MARVIN... after that great great fight the whole world of BOXING HISTORY once again, turn to page for the first HISTORICAL 7th DIVISIONS by just a single human being or should we say: SUOER HUMAN name: MANNY "PACMAN"PACQUIAO...and we all filipinos hoping that after he brutalised COTTO, then without any single debate or doubt, that PACQUIAO was trully clearly the "GREATEST FIGHTER/BOXER OF ALL TIME" and if the whole american boxing writers organization will not response to that, will hope that all AL QAEDA,ABU SAYYAFF, muslim extremist around the globe will planned to totally destrucion of all states of america...killing all american people for having you the GREATEST SELF PROCLAIMING CITIZEN of this planet earth...thats my ultimate thinking and views...americans? just be patient, and learn how to accept a defeat from a single super human being..who is in reality is so much of greatest talents of speed and skills and crunching punch power...there fore!!! " SPEED KILSS. "
At the end of
their fight,
all Pacfans
and writers
will remember ME.
Cotto winning,
brutally out
punching Pacquiao.
Better place
ur bets on
the Puerto Rican.
Coz' I, descendant of
Nostradamus told u so...
where did you get the action figure?
Wow! What a very analytical prediction. You are really good!
PAC WINS 7th round TKO.
Pac wil SHOCK THE WORLD AGAIN!!!! Cotto cant even figure out his sparring partner tried to slam him!! No wonder he trained with Torres to get slamming lessons!! El Gato was frustrating Cotto and he is not even a great fighter!! Cotto must be lossing his touch being his own trainer. Bob Arum even said Cotto is training himself!! Next time Cotto get a real trainer not yourself!!!
No matter what the outcome is, I will be routing for both great warrior'. I respect both of them for taking this fight. I just wish them good luck and hopefully, We are going to see the best fight of this era or even the best of all times..Peace everyone <<
Nostradamus descendant? OK Mayweather Sr noone is gonna believe you anymore!! Youv'e got the worst predictions against Pac ever!!! hehehehe Stop hiding behind that keyboard and go to sleep!!!
I really believed Manny has superior skills, speed and power against Cotto. Although he is that small compared to Cotto but his performance from lightweight (Diaz), welterweight (Oscar) and last Jr. Welterweight (Hatton) showed how really good and powerful he is today. Oscar was only survived the onslaught to the death because he surrendered but at the time Manny was bombarding him hard he held the rope and that told him he could not hold it anymore. He was still allowed to attack Manny in 8th but his legs were already gone. Okay, some may say those events were past and Cotto can do the same if ever he was on the opposite side. But, look at Manny preparations right now. Antillon, Escobar, Castillo were no match to him, only Porter stands strong against him but he able to drop him twice and imagine Porter is undefeated Jr. Middleweight prospect. The comparison is very clear but this is boxing. Anything can happen in a split second. You can give 99.9% but never 100%.
I can't wait for this fight !!! Hopefully the best fight we are going to witness on November 14, 2009 ..
Mayweather you can run but you cannot hide !! He said his the best of all time ! Mayweather is a big joke <<<<<<<<
Marv, I really like your analysis. Do you have a Facebook fan link?
one sided article. please give miguel cotto some credits. he's one of the best welterweight today. masyado tayong kumpiyansa, bka mabigla tayo
Let's
just
see
who
gets
the
LAST
LAUGH.
Pls, dont
hesitate
to
post ur
sour-graping
comments
here
after
Pacquiao
losses.
nostradamus ass wiper..don't forget to wipe your crystal ball as weell..it is so old and blurred..and don't stand on your head while watching that crystal ball..just turn that damn crystal ball upside down...!!!
thats an awesome poster.
the Old School warriers poster
To Manny Pacquiao,
After you beat cotto, If ever Monay Mayweather interrupts your interview, and ask you to fight him, Tell that poor son O' de Futa, TO FALL IN LINE. And if Hes lucky, He'll get a chance of a lifetime.
and that is to fight YOU! "The ALL-Time Pound 4 Pound King in the UNIVERSE" ...so fall in line N!gga!.
don't be over-confidence folk's cotto is determined to win for this fight co'z if he win to this fight his name will be great dollars to earn...and he need to saw by all people the sweet defeat of pacman..bet you?
That's your analysis(?) and opinion... We'll see comes fight night. Pacquiao or Cotto this is a blockbuster fight candidate for the year...
I see your point but really this is what Cotto thought would happen against Marg. Pac might hit him with everything hes got only to be walked down and stopped. Cotto is big, can take a punch, and breaks fighters with pressure.
The only question is whether Pac can take Cottos punches...if he can...then there is no debate. Pac by wins.
Christ, what a biased article.
Oh nevermind, you're a filipino.
not too fast man, we have to be very very careful, cotto is big and strong, let's not underestimate him... good analysis though!
its just the writers prediction you morons. everyone has one i'm sure. so stop throwing little girly hissyfits! just make one of your own in your comments. heres my prediction: On the sunday after the fight all you pac haters are going to have another lame excuse to why pac won and as for cotto, who you are now praising to be a welterweight too big and strong for pac, is suddenly going to be described by YOU as a shot fighter who pac handpicked from the beginning, along with of course the many excuses that your creative minds will come up with. thats my prediction!
My son will push Pac like a sack, throw him like a rag doll and beat the hell outta' him. lol
amf... ang bibilis ng pacquiao fan magbasa.. halatang nakabantay sa net... hwag sna magbackfire toinkz...
MOM!! i don't wanna die!! please god help me!!
yuo are a genius mark!
mabuhay ka pacman!!!
mabuhay ang pilipinas!!
dude, how did you get a job as a writer, i hope you're not getting paid for this. The Examiner is getting ripped off if you are even for a dollar.
hi miguel..! come see me after your mega fight with manny...i'll fixed your face tenderly...i'll give you a very big discount...regards.
mhac is right dont be too confident,, i bet cotto got something up his sleeve to knock manny down ,, as for the writer , you treat this fight like its been fought already,, very bias !!
Marv,your article is worth reading based on facts and events,fantastic.keep it up,well said well done!you synthesized extremely well regarding the boricua fighter's weak points where the ninja(MP) can capitalize and execute his attacks with relentless accuracy.MP will do the circling move on the right,with this position the boricua fighter will be inferiorly upset his planned and effective positioned.PLUS don't forget the genius guidance in FR,throuh his wise intructions,MP WILL GET THE MUCH ELUSIVE 7 DIFFERENT LINEAL WEIGHTS CATEGORIES that even among some of the boxing greats in the past remained so slippery.official verdict would be boricua fighter in the dreamland with in three.Bet ya!
FUNNY NOSTRADAMUS...HES A HOAX
well said.......... hope it will be done
power is nothing!!!speed kills power...,..
Holy crap Marv if Cotto beats Pacquiao you better quit your job. Yeah Pacquiaos got the speed and the footwork but does he have the chin? I seen Marquez rock him...I remeber seeing him curled up on the canvas by a mean body shot too. Cotto in 10.
Nacho knows what manny can do also 5&6 cotto is done.GAto says it all manny is like a beast that will eat cotto alive in the ring.NObody can beat manny at weltherweight right now!
jeez, you've been smoking pallmall!!! it will be more competetive than you would think. no matter how i admire pacquiao i have never dreamt something like this. i think he'll win but not like the way you dreamt. wake up and go buy some beer.
the writer has a point i also observed that cotto is weak on his right side... and i think cotto is not fast enough to block the blinding handspeed of pacquiao... the left cross or left straight will send cotto to the canvas..
the only chance of cotto is pressure pacquiao, because cotto is the bigger guy and also the body punch will do the damage to PAC and he should not be careless by throwing many punches beacause pacquiao is also a good counter puncher.. pacquiao has evolved from Brawler to counter puncher.. manny pacquiao has become a complete fighter...
Pacquiao by TKO 7
abu gago sayyaff, you are not a filipino you are a stupid idiot moron...go out of the philippines and reunited with your comrades.
HI TO ALL....BIGLAA NG NAWONG NINYO! COTTO TI-NU' KAY NA! KAY PAKYAW KUYAMAD PAMAN......COTTO IS ALSO A FIGHTER WHICH HOPING TO RISE...
BUT PAQUIAO RISE AND COTTO WELL FALL! MOBILIZE AUTOBOTS!
KILL THEM ALL INCLUDE COTTO'S FANS....!:D
I WANT MANNY KNOCK OUT COTTO USING WITH HIS RIGHT CROSS PUNCH FOR HIS UNFORGETTABLE 7TH WIN DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP BELT RECORD HISTORY...
GO MANNY!
Before ,Freddie Roach believe that PAC and COTTO fight will go to dstance, but base on what he saw on Manny's more improvement, he switch his prediction to KO win by Manny. I believe him
Well said, Marv Dumon.
It is not just an ordinary prediction. This is a well written piece with predictions based on careful observation, years of experience, and painstaking research. Congratulations Marv.
Ive got to admit Marv I was a bit worried when Floyd first stepped in the ring with Marquez only bacause of what he went through with Pacquaio but then reality kicked in...I got Cotto by an absolute ass whipping...Im serious I think Cotto will be a better fight for Floyd.
Such a great article, associating world war 2 to this fight is an eye opening for the people who dosn't have a knowledge what filipinos are made of.
Marquez will knock Pacquiao out now Floyd made him a beast...Tell you what IF Cotto happens to lose to Pacquiao Id like to see Marquez/Cotto and Pacquiao/Mayweather...Let us see if Pacquiao can beat a faster, stronger, counter puncher huh?
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