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Greater chance of hurricanes for Hawaii this year due to El Niño

MId-Pacific winter forecast
MId-Pacific winter forecast
Credits: 
courtesy of NWS/Honolulu Advertiser

The National Weather Service has a couple of warnings for Hawaii's boaters as well as its general population today while what was Tropical Storm Neki and is now Hurricane Neki, with 110-mph winds, roars across the open ocean some 630 miles west-southwest of Honolulu.

First, it warns that Neki will intensify to a Category Three hurricane -- with wind speeds of 111 to 130 mph -- over the next 48 hours as it churns its way towards the Papahananaumokuakea National Monument from Nihoa Island to French Frigate Shoals and Lisianski Island.

This of course presents a serious threat to any cruisers or fishermen currently in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

The second NWS warning appeared in an article in today’s Honolulu Advertiser quoting James Weyman, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

In an El Niño year, which comes around every two to seven years, Weyman said, surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise a degree or so, which causes a tremendous impact on weather patterns.

Not only does this increase in sea temperature promote a greater incidence of late-season and stronger hurricanes, but drier than normal rain conditions during Hawaii’s normal wet season.

The bottom line is that the end of Hawaii’s hurricane season may still be more than two months off, and once it is finished, the new year’s rainy season may lack normal trade wind showers, due to multiple areas of high pressure, and instead produce occasional heavy downpours and flash-flooding.

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Honolulu Boating Examiner

Ray has provided the readers of the Honolulu Star-Bulletin with news and commentary about the events, the people, and the issues affecting...

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