When SIAC champ Tuskegee meets CIAA representative Elizabeth City State Saturday at 2 p.m. in the Pioneer Bowl, the outcome of the game may hinge on the defense.
Fans expecting a high-scoring affair at Charlie W. Johnson Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina will likely be disappointed.
Tuskegee put up 21 first-half points against Alabama State in the Turkey Day Classic, but was almost completely shut down in the second half. The Golden Panthers' defense, however, saved the day, holding the Hornets to minus-57 yards rushing and a grand total of 51 yards of offense.
The Golden Panthers are averaging 27.2 points, 174.6 yards rushing and 171.1 yards of passing per game for 345.7 yards of total offense. Ironically, the team converted just 35 percent of its third-down conversions, but 53 percent of their fourth downs. That could be a factor if the Vikings force a third-and-short situation.
Most of Tuskegee's offense is a multiplayer concept. Tony Forney is the leading rusher, with 608 yards on 132 carries, but for only three touchdowns. John Pascley had 408 yards on 69 carries, but has scored 10 times.
The passing game sets up the run. Jeremy Williams has completed 74 of 149 passes for 1,080 yards and four touchdowns, with eight interceptions. Backup QB Joshua Harris is 54-104-3 for 694 yards and eight touchdowns.
Defensively, the team gives up 228 yards a game (96.7 rush and 131.3 pass). Brandon Anderson leads the defense with 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss.
Elizabeth City State tied for the CIAA eastern division crown, but lost a three-way coin toss with Virginia Union and Bowie State for the right to face Fayetteville State in the conference championship (Bowie State won the toss, but lost the game).
The Vikings averaged 35 points a game and was almost identical in offense to Tuskegee, accumulating 342.1 yards per game (141 rush and 201.1 pass). And, like Tuskegee, they converted a little more than a third of their third-down conversions, but 43 percent of their fourth down tries.
While Tuskegee's pass and run complement each other, ECSU's passing game sets up the running game. Daronte Mitchell and Cedric Blacknall have combined for only 999 yards of rushing, but have scored 20 touchdowns. Mitchell has 562 yards on 116 carries for nine scores, while Blacknall put up 437 yards on 105 carries for 11 touchdowns.
Quarterback Creven Powell completed 112 of 240 passes for 1,823 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has been intercepted nine times.
Defense is what is likely to either help or harm the Vikings. Malcolm Jenkins has made 11 sacks and 21 tackles for loss. Justin Hamilton had picked off nine passes, deflected 16 more and has blocked four field goal attempts. As a whole, the Vikings have 24 interceptions and 30 sacks.
What parries the interception game, though, is the fact that ECSU gives up nearly 200 yards of passing a game. Opponents have scored 25 points a game against them. They like to flood the opponents' backfield to get the quarterback or force a hasty throw for a pick. However, if they can't get to the passer quickly, they're prone to an accurate arm.
For anyone looking for the game to be settled by a long field goal, don't get your hopes up. The kicking game is atrocious for both teams, but about par for the course, as kicking has not traditionally been a high priority at most HBCUs.
Eduardo Murillo has hit only three of eight field goals for Tuskegee and his longest is only 31 yards. He has also missed five PATs.
Daniel Mendez is not much better with ECSU. He has hit four of 10 tries. His longest is 36 yards.
That means both teams would have to be deep in the red zone for a field goal to mean something. With their fourth-down conversion rates, look for a shot to the end zone on fourth-and-short.
Most likely, Tuskegee's defense won't find a cream puff offensive line like it did at Alabama State. The Golden Panthers will need good games from Williams and Harris, as well as the offensive line.
Elizabeth City State needs to keep pressure on Tuskegee constantly. Malcolm Jenkins can do that, with Hamilton keeping the secondary on its toes.
Prediction: Tuskegee treats this bowl like a home game and needs a strong showing to keep pressure on Prairie View and South Carolina State for the Black College National Championship.
Tuskegee 28, Elizabeth City State 21
For more information, go to: www.pioneerbowl.com, www.thesiac.com or www.theciaa.com.
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