AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesperson John Townsend II told a number of reporters this week that new bicycle lanes on Pennsylvania Avenue would worsen congestion. His criticisms made for snappy quotes and helped flesh out otherwise thinly reported articles, but there's one problem that few reporters bothered to mention: Townsend is likely wrong.
Contrary to what AAA, a group with a clear financial interest in keeping cars on the road, espouses there's good reason to believe that the new bicycle lanes on Pennsylvania Avenue will actually reduce congestion rather than increase it. A few of the reasons why:
*The District Department of Transportation (DDOT) has conducted modeling that suggests as much. (Washington Post).
*Traffic congestion generally behaves in the manner of a non-linear function, meaning that a small reduction in peak traffic volume can cause proportionally larger reductions in delays. In this case, if the bike lanes encourage even a small percentage of people to ride instead of drive all drivers will benefit with reduced travel times (VTPI).
*A 4 percent reduction in total traffic volume in the United States, for example, produced a nearly 30 percent reduction in traffic congestion between 2007 and 2008. Something similar will likely occur on Pennsylvania Avenue. (INRIX Corporation).
*A 5 percent drop in traffic volume during a bottleneck can yield a doubling of traffic speeds. (Traffic)
*Traffic accidents, not bicycle lanes, are the main source of delay and congestion for motorists. (VTPI)
*Vans and SUVs are key drivers of congestion. Heavier vehicles require more road space and are slower to accelerate, and thus cause more traffic congestion than smaller, lighter vehicles. An SUV imposes 1.4 "passenger car equivalents (PCEs)" on a road system and a van 1.3 PCEs. (Shabih and Kockelman)
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More DC bike news from the Bicycle Transportation Examiner
Comments
Another hockey-stick graph. Clearly, this "biking reduces traffic congestion" argument comes from the same sort of people who believe global warming is real. No wonder the AAA is opposed.
DCJ, you mean the same sort of people that look at scientific data and draw logical conclusions? Then yes, the same people who believe that global warming is real.
DCJ- Yes the graph looks like a hockey stick. Did you bother to read the words and figure out the information being conveyed?
Hey Everyone: I’m the Social Media Manager at AAA Mid-Atlantic. I’d like to respond to the press we’ve been receiving painting us as anti-bike or anti-cyclist. What AAA Mid-Atlantic is concerned about is the fact that the bike lanes are being put in without any formal process (hearings, review, etc) which is detrimental to cyclists and drivers alike. This is our main concern, not the bike lanes themselves. If another lane for cars was being added without any formal process in place, you can be assured we would be raising alarms on that as well.
From my perspective, what AAA Mid-Atlantic did wrong was write a press release that caused our position to be misunderstood. Additionally, we allowed a few days to pass before we responded to clarify our position that we are definitely not anti-cyclist. In fact, we are sponsors of Ride Your Bike to Work Day and offer community programs on Bike Safety
Questions or comments? Please comment back or email me at ksnedaker@aaamidatlantic.com.
Just because the graph resembles a hockey stick does not mean it is not accurate. I used to run tests all the time that were SUPPOSED to yield hockey-stick graphs.
On the other hand, we are all aware that a great deal of research is done to spec, and data that doesn't fit the desired result often gets thrown out. One of my project coordinators was very fond of "Fudge Factors" so he could show our boss good results, whether I actually got them in the lab or not.
My primary objection is to people who don't think, and it goes both ways. Thoughtless reactionaries in many metro areas throw bike lanes at everything, regardless of need, and equally thoughtless reactionaries object to bicycles, bicycle lanes, bicyclists.
Welcome to the land of We The People. Some of us like riding bikes, don't knock it.
My business operates out of a one-ton cargo van. I only wish I could ride my bike to work. However, we have too much winter here to use more bike lanes than we have. Like everything else, bike lanes should be based on need, not some dreamy vision of Utopia that utterly lacks any sign of logic or knowledge.
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