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It’s hard to believe that just 11 short months ago, the Republican Party was all but declared a non-entity for the next 50 years in American politics. Now it seems by all poll indications, the Republicans are back and they may make the 1994 off-year elections look tame compared to what may be in store in 2010.
The early scent of a future landslide defeat usually begins with the party’s own starting to withdraw as candidates.
Early reports show Reps. Dennis Moore of Kansas, John Tanner and Bart Gordon of Tennessee, Brian Baird of Washington and Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii (quitting to run for governor) retiring from the House. It might be noted that all come from districts beginning to lean toward the Republicans in growing numbers.
There are also Democrats that have chosen to stay and fight that are in serious danger of being ousted next year.
At the top of that group is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada. Not only is he behind in every state poll in Nevada, both his Republican challengers are ahead of him almost a year before the election. Senator Reid and House Majority Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) are the poster children of President Obama and his ever-growing unpopular domestic policies. 
Every major national polling organization has found the Republicans growing a lead over their Democratic rivals of four points and growing by the month. The premature prediction that the Republicans were finished for years to come was just that; premature.
Democrat’s real problem is coming from Independents. They comprise approximately 19% of the electorate. Whereas Obama corralled most of their support in the 2008 election, his unpopular stances on health care reform and carbon taxes along with the almost invisible stimulus money is shifting a vast majority of those votes to the Republicans.
While President Obama rode the theme of “change” into his first term as president, his theme is now being met with skepticism on the Far Right & Left. During a severe recession, the Obama Administration’s call for new taxes and costly programs are being met with unprecedented opposition considering the Democrat’s stranglehold on both Houses.
“There are many different forces that are going on at the time and it is always difficult to isolate if there is a single factor that is driving it,” Gallup’s editor-in-chief, Frank Newport said. “But clearly one of the most visible things going on right now is the health-care debate, so it is reasonable that it may be having an impact.”
The longer the debate continues, the more the Democrats appear to be fighting a battle that the American people have loudly said they are not in favor of. The Demos come off appearing to be on an agenda that does not include the will of the people or the mandate that gave them the White House less than one year ago. 
The Election of 1994 was largely fueled by an electorate that had begun to feel marginal in the eyes of their lawmakers. Their anger became louder as the Clinton Administration dug in its heels on a health care plan that was a money loser from the onset and worsened as the debate droned on.
Does this all sound familiar?
Many Democratic lawmakers are beginning to have second thoughts about their loyalty to their party’s leader. The “Blue Dog” Democrats (moderate Democrats elected in largely Republican areas) are beginning to show signs of disillusion with the Obama Administration and fear for their own job security. Last month’s Republican victories for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia did nothing to quell those fears of a coming Republican backlash.
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The ruling party losing a substantial number of seats in off-year elections is nothing new. But it’s the sense by many experts that this could mean both Houses changing majority parties that makes it interesting to political scholars. The very idea of such a radical transformation so early in Obama’s presidency is unique and laden with whispers of a one-term president. It doesn’t help matters that the last Democrat in that position was Jimmy Carter who lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Much like 1980, the Republicans are grappling with their own party disunity. There are those on the Far Right that yearn for a return to “traditional values” as mirrored in their present savior, former Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin.
But for many Republicans, Palin’s candidacy musters up the 1964 disastrous campaign of Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater who was trounced that year by President Lyndon Johnson. They tend to rally behind Moderate Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts. In essence, the Republicans could gain substantial gains in both Houses for 2010 and lose the presidency in 2012 by splitting their party down the middle reminiscent of 1992 when Ross Perot ran as an Independent effectively giving Clinton the election. .jpg)
Much can happen between Christmas and the coming long, hot campaign summer. President Obama has time to alter the steady numbers indicating a major change in the air.
“Democrats own Washington from the White House down,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain. “This is clearly a sign that the political environment continues to shift, while Democrats continue to offer up politically tone-deaf policies.”
But as sure as the sun rises tomorrow morning, the Democrats need to change their priorities quickly before they lose all touch with next year’s voting Americans.
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Comments
Tic-Tock Dems.....Tic-Tock
I know I'm going to be out there in force spreading the message come next summer. I say tic toc as well.
The Republicans could have done a better job when they had control, but the Dems are MUCH worse. Just about everything the Dems do is unconstitutional and goes against everything our founding fathers envisioned. It's unbelievable, but we now have a govt that refuses to represent the majority. Obama, Pelosi, Reid............they're all whores.
I love this!
Let's see. Obama drew a line in the sand on healthcare reform, and designated it his signature issue. Change healthcare, get more covered, cut the deficit, and get *some* bill passed soon.
Guess what, he will pass exactly such a bill!
Every President and Congress before him that tried to do this, failed. Think about that.
I'll get to the polls in a minute, but let's look at what just happened:
30 million new customers for the insurance agencies. Delivered on a silver platter by the Democrats. Guess who gets the campaign contributions from those guys?
Guess who the majority of those 30 million will now vote for?
And what affect does carrying "ACORN", "ANGRY MOB", "NO PUBIC OPTION", or guns to a healthcare rally did? Nothing. Those wingnuts were GOP before, and will be GOP after. Or will they move to the really wingnut party "Tea Baggers"?
Polls in Dec 2009 do not decide elections in Nov 2010. But this is not the only problem. See my next pos
Poll in Jan '91 Bush Sr.: 91% Nov '91: OUSTED
Alaskan Governor Poll May 08. Palin: 85%. middle 09: 52% NO MAS
For a true indicator, watch the polls in Oct 2010.
The biggest challenge to Obama was this bill. It passed, and the GOP got nothing out of it. Worse, the Democrats are set to get BIG contributions from the insurance industry. (Google Bloomberg for what it does)
The GOP will now have to choose between playing NO on everything, which will only help Democrats woo other industries and pass more legislation that favors campaign contributions. And there is no more contentious bill lurking.
AH, but what about the economy.
See next post
The economy.
Well the banks have more or less stabilized. TARP performed better than expected, the losses were fewer, and they have left over money.
75% of the stimulus is unspent.
Unemployment is bottoming out.
Uh oh!
Watch for a temporary job and project surge with more use of the stimulus funds.
The DJIA is higher than it has been in the last 15 months, and will climb next year. People will recover their IRA/401K losses.
The mood will be different.
Afghanistan? The extra troops will yield a surprise: capture of some top terrorists in the next six months, which will change the timescale and the nation's mood drastically.
Yup, it looks REAL BAD FOR DEMOCRATS. LOL
Oh, but what about the GOP? Shut out from all legislation, they can continue to do nothing, and face cannibalization from the Tea Baggers.
And what's that fearless leader doing?
She is using crayons to hide that McCain fella's name from her visor. (Obviously could not find a new visor a
The economy has not been fixed. the banks would only drop so low. jobs will only be lost so fast. Every drop has a rally back up before dropping down again. Pay close attention to the situation worsening in early 2010. No matter who you put the blame on or what the obama administration does, no massive amount of spending is going to fix the inevitable crash of the economy from his bashing speeches in 2008 that scared everyone into halting their spending.
The House health care bill contains a public option, whereas the Senate bill does not.
A final bill will have to be hammered out and it will either contain a public option or it won't.
Many House Democrats aid that they would not vote yes on a final bill if it did not contain a public option. They will either keep their promise or they won't.
If those House Democrats break their promise and cave in, they need to be tossed out in November 2010 or primaried before then if possible.
Pat Toomey 2010 PA Senator.
Marconi, you are in liberal lala land. The Democrats are going to get their butts kicked in 2010, period. Those 30 million votes for Healthcare passage you claim, they are going to be paying taxes until 2014 before they get any benefits from the bill. Still counting on those votes in 2010? BTW, well over 60% of the people DON'T want the bill passed, so passing it is not a plus. But enjoy your fantasy world while you can, because in 2010 it's coming crashing down hard.
Tick Tock
Why are white people not raising a stink about this 10% tanning tax in the senate bill!?!?!?
We cant make one decision in life without being told we have to pay a tax on it if we dont HAVE to have it to live. Democrats have gone mad. And made me mad in the process.
Blacks will not be paying this 10% tanning tax....white people will.
The funny thing is - this is about incompetence - not ideology.
The American people would have been thrilled if Obama had spent 1 or 2 or 3 Trillion dollars and brought unemployment down modestly from 8 percent to 6 percent.
Instead he passed an incompetent Stimulus package that spent 1 Trillion and allowed unemployment to rise from 8 percent to 10 percent.
It is the economy stupid. And spending a year arguing entirely within the Democratic party about what kind of incompetent Health Care reform the Democrats were going to push through without a single Republican vote - was the last nail in the coffin.
Record foreclosures on homes.
Obama promised, just after taking office, that he would spend 75 Billion, with a T , to bring down the high rate of foreclosures.
How much has he spent to do that less than 1/2 of one percent of the promised 75 Billion.
Results: Every month since Obama's promise a new record number of foreclosures - that is a new record since the government started keeping records at the time of World War II - every month.
Obama is telling fellow Democrats the problem is he did not give enough speeches explaining his grand plans for stimulus, and saving homeowners from foreclosure, and government run health care, and saving the planet from Global Warming when all the people want are good paying jobs.
Good luck on explaining again how four years from now the next President is going to deliver some of the benefits of health care reform...
Marconi says:
"Well the banks have more or less stabilized. TARP performed better than expected, the losses were fewer, and they have left over money."
Really ???
The Tarp Watch Dog appointed by the Democratic Congress last year just released a report that said the exact opposite.
1. The troubled assets were never removed from the Banks books.
2. The Obama plan to fix the foreclosure and homeowner default on those troubled assets has failed utterly and that time bomb is ticking every month as foreclosures and defaults on loans of all kinds grow at a record level each month.
3. The fed Loaning Trillions of dollars to the Banks at near zero percent interest, and allowing them to speculate in the stock markets, rather than making business loans has left the banks with huge profits form speculating and the US taxpayer with all the losses from such speculation.
4. Private bank credit will likely freeze up again when newly unemployed Americans default.
And what does the only major Economist to predict the financial crisis, the near depression that Fed Chief Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner admitted they were clueless about, believe is happening this year ( 2010 ) ???
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who anticipated the financial crisis, said the U.S. growth outlook remains “very dismal” and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said the economy is still mired in a “human recession.”
“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini said in a Jan. 30 Bloomberg Television interview following a U.S. Commerce Department report that showed economic expansion of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter. “I think we are in trouble.”
Maybe this time we should listen to Roubini and not a delusional Obama ???
Loaning to the banks was done by private investors from around the world prior to the economic collapse last year.
Since then the FED has been printing money and loaning it to the banks instead.
The FED now has two choices:
1. Stop such government loans and see if the private credit markets freeze up again dumping the US economy into a new "Near Great Depression" crisis, or,
2. Keep printing and lending Trillions of dollars a year and watch the U.S. dollar's value melt down in a spiral of hyperinflation.
Great choices all the way around, too bad Obama did not actually fix the foreclosure problem as he promised a year ago, and , too bad Obama did not actually get the Troubled Assets off the Banks Books as he promised a year ago.
Those two promises, if they had been kept, might have actually avoided a new credit freeze when the FED pulls it's unsustainable support for banks.
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