Iran’s foreign minister announced Wednesday that his country “would not export enriched uranium for further processing.” This was pretty much the last possible deal to prevent further U.S. and European sanctions on Iran.
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Although it had been announced less than a month ago that the Iranians had made a deal to export the uranium to Russia for its enrichment, the abrupt turnabout was not a surprise to most western leaders. What many cannot understand is what Russia will do about this change of heart.
Representatives of six world powers including France and Britain urged Iran Friday to accept a U.N. plan aimed at delaying its ability to build a nuclear weapon.
Earlier this week in Singapore, President Obama had warned Iran that “time is running out”. Now with time indeed running out, it’s anyone’s guess what the president and his state department staff plan to come up with short of a military option.
The Israelis’ have more at stake than any country in involved in this crisis. Any real and forceful plan is missing at present. It leaves our most prominent Middle East ally anxious and cautious. It is common knowledge that the military option is very real with Israel if further sanctions or diplomatic efforts are unsuccessful. It is unthinkable to contemplate an Israeli strike of some sort on Iran, whether conventional or nuclear. 
The end result would be utter chaos throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world. The world would take up sides with end result more horrible than any imagination is capable of. It would most certainly change everything we know as true today.
“We will definitely not send our 3.5 percent enriched uranium out of the country,” Foreign Minister Manochehr Mottaki told the unofficial ISNA news agency. He went on to say, “That means a simultaneous fuel swap could be considered in Iran.”
Of course this will never be agreed to by the Western powers and it’s anyone’s guess what the Russians will finally do since they currently help the Iranians presently building a “peaceful” nuclear plant. Russia's REAL leader, Mr. Putin, plays his cards to the vest like an expert KGB agent, which he was.
More and more, a sea embargo is being discussed at the Pentagon. High ranking officials see it as a last desperate action to hold Israel back. It will surely squeeze the Iranians further into economic calamity. However, it’s uncertain how effective it can be without Chinese and Russian cooperation. It probably is not enough to hold back the flood gates. 
What is certain is that President Obama was right about time running out. It is every seasoned expert’s educated guess that Iran will possess the bomb and striking capability on Israel by 2011.
There can be no true embargo that has teeth without Russia. They are at best shaky with all their commercial dealings in Iran. Without Russian support, all eyes turn to the Israelis. If no one will stop Iran, they most certainly will try and try with whatever it takes. It is far more complicated than my thumbnail sketch for space reasons. But it is a crisis nevertheless.
The fate of the entire world may rest in decisions the great powers make in the coming few months. At present, there is no option aside from military force that appears viable.
It appears only an inner-revolution that would topple the present system is a wild card in this dilemma. But the likeliness of that occurring in the short term is extremely remote.
The options have become slim to none that will really have a positive effect. If we ever needed strong leadership, it is now, this moment.
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