Stats vs. truth: Greinke award draws the distinction

2009 AL Cy Young Award winner
Zack Greinke

Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke won the 2009 American League Cy Young Award this week with a league-leading ERA of 2.16 but an unassuming record of 16-8. Some observers – Greinke among them – expressed surprise that Seattle Mariner Felix Hernandez did not take the prize after posting a gaudy 19-5/2.49. But to this observer, the honor was well placed and, perhaps more importantly, reflective of the season’s truth and not merely its statistics.

 

Greinke opened the season 6-0/0.40 and finished 6-1/1.75, clear indication of his dominance for much of the year. Before consigning the rest to the compost heap, however, remember that he played for the 65-97 last place Royals, who scored only 1.9 runs in each of his losses and who blew four games he was in line to win. It was nice, therefore, that the writers saw fit to reward him despite the fact that no AL starter had ever won the award with fewer than 18 wins.

 

Win-loss records are not the only statistics that can mask practical truths – ERA, too, can be deceptive, especially in the case of relief pitchers with small ones. Take, for instance, a reliever who comes into the game with men on base. Should he allow them to score, those runs are not charged to him, and his ERA remains unaffected even though he did not do the job expected of him.

 

Similarly, closers with a lot of wins are suspect, for they usually enter games with leads to hold, and the only way they earn wins is to first blow the lead and then to be the pitcher of record when their team storms back from behind. WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and BAA (batting average against) thus are so much more indicative of pitching effectiveness.

 

On the other side of the equation, batting averages famously have been replaced by on-base percentages as measures of offensive success, a point Boston Red Sox manager Terry Francona addressed in an interview yesterday on WEEI radio. “I grew up in an era where, if you hit .300, you were a good player,” he told hosts Dale Arnold and Michael Holley. “Well, you know what? That’s not the telltale. I was the perfect example. I could hit .300. I never helped our team. I hit all singles, I never walked, I wasn’t fast enough to score any runs. It was kind of cosmetic.”

 

“Cosmetic.” It’s the perfect description, for such stats look good but cover up the flaws that are the truth. Good for Greinke that his wholesome performance shined through!