There’s no question that the free agent signing of Jonathan Papelbon by the Phillies puts a dent in the Red Sox bullpen – after all, the guy did average of more than 31 saves per year in his time here. But to get those saves, he had to enter games when the team had a lead – a circumstance that typically requires either that the starters go deep, or the middle relievers hold the other team in check, or both.
Neither of these were especially characteristic of last year’s Boston club.
Red Sox starting pitchers in 2011 posted a total of 71 quality starts on the season while their relievers rang up 75 holds. This calculates to 79% and 83% of their 90 wins, respectively – a report-card performance of C+ and B-.
By way of comparison, the Yankees clocked 84 quality starts and 95 holds, and with 97 wins, they scored 87% and 98% on these measures – grading out at a superior B+ and A+.
The World Series champion Cardinals? They got 86 quality starts and 68 holds in their 90 wins, a 96% rate in the former case and 76% in the latter. The already pitching-rich Phillies? They enjoyed more quality starts (108) than wins (102), but experienced holds in barely more than half of their victories (56, or 55%).
What this tells me is that teams with strength in one area or the other stand a reasonable chance of having a successful season, even if the small sample represented by the postseason ends up upsetting the statistical applecart. It also tells me that the Red Sox were mediocre on both counts in 2011, a fact that Papelbon’s 91% save conversion rate had nothing to do with.
Ergo, the loss of the erstwhile closer to Philadelphia really ought to be the least of the Sox’s pitching concerns since the issue really boils down to getting into a save situation in the first place. One guy with 15 saves (Heath Bell?) and two others with eight each (Daniel Bard? Bobby Jenks?) will cover the exposed ground – especially if any of them can dance a jig with a beer carton on his head.
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