Gonzalez signs with Jays; doesn't kill Red Sox season

Shortstop Alex Gonzalez
last year as a Red

For shortstop Alex Gonzalez, the proverbial bird in the hand was a Blue Jay.

Despite the apparent intentions of the Boston Red Sox to re-sign the defensive wizard after declining his $6 million option, Gonzalez yesterday agreed to join the Toronto Blue Jays for one year at $2.75 million, plus a $2.5 million team option for 2011. The airwaves and blogosphere have been buzzing ever since as fans and commentators decry the Sox’ inaction and lambaste GM Theo Epstein for not finding a long-term shortstop solution.

To this, I say: hold on a minute.

Though it says here that the value of Gonzalez’ superior glove work far outweighs the softness of his bat, and that losing him for “only” a quarter-million dollars (assuming it is true that the Sox were prepared to offer him $3 million) will prove to be painful, the fact is that his absence will not cost the Red Sox a winning season, a playoff appearance, or a World Series.

What will cost them is inadequately reloading the lineup, especially if they can’t re-sign outfielder Jason Bay. And that issue would stand even with A-Gon in the fold.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia at the top of the order are terrific table-setters for the sluggers that presumably will follow. But excepting only Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez, who can be expected to bat third and fourth, respectively, question marks then ensue.

Bay might have hit fifth, but like as not, he will be gone, taking his 36 HRs and 119 RBIs with him. David Ortiz could stand in, for while he famously struggled for much of 2009, he did finish with 28 HR and 99 RBI. However, he hit just .238 and struck out a career-high 134 times, and though he’ll almost certainly rebound in 2010, it is fair to wonder to what degree given his wrist injury, age, and weaker batters hitting behind him.

J.D. Drew, perhaps up next, isn’t a weak batter, but he is streaky and often ailing, and doesn’t provide the consistent threat they acquired him to be. Third baseman Mike Lowell and the shortstop to be named later then complete the daily inventory, and while Lowell can hit, it’s entirely possible that his surgically-repaired hip will continue to hinder his play.

Niggle if you must about whether Bay stays, Ortiz returns to form, or Lowell fully recovers: the point is that these outcomes have nothing to do with Gonzalez’ departure. His defense will be sorely missed, and his absence will cost the Red Sox runs and perhaps even a game or two, regardless of who replaces him. (Sorry, Marco Scutar-ians.) But the team has much bigger fish to fry if it is going to credibly challenge for a championship, and that’s where the focus really ought to be.