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OK, you knew they were coming, most people post their prediction list on New Year's Eve, I want you sober.
Here are my predictions for the online marketplace in 2009.
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2009 will be the year of the small independent vendor.
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Online sellers of unique items such as antiques and collectibles will realize that there is one website crucial to their success above all others, their own. I don't think that they necessarily need to have their own site be a "store front" nor should it be, but it at least has to be a central contact hub where they can explain their brand and promote their mission statement.
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I predict that eBay will finally separate it's auction model from it's fixed price model into completely separate businesses.
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I think the podcast will start to do to air wave radio, what the blogs have done to the printed newspaper.
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Google search will be the first place people go to find a product.
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Sales tax will be collected in all 50 states for online purchases.
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Local economies will become mashable with Internet sales as sites like Bonanzle encourage sellers to search and shop by location.
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As smaller independent vendors learn and become better versed in how to manage their own websites, and as the tools they're using become more stable and easier, they will not seek out the help of paid website builders and developers.
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Those same website builders and developers the good ones, such as iBusinesslogic, will have plenty of work from corporate businesses as these businesses seek to solidify their foothold in the marketplace. Although they may not realize it until 2012, to these companies, the website developer will become as important to their success as the CEO.
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Who'll be around in 2010: eBay, Amazon, Bonanzle, Worthpoint, Auctionzip, PowersellersUnite, iTaggit, Seeauctions.com,Craigslist & AuctionWally.com ;)
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Wall St. investors will funnel a large amount of money into the antiques & collectibles market as they realize that tangible assets have out performed EVERY other investment over the longterm.
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Antiques, fine art & collectibles experts will become the new investment gurus.
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Quality used and antique items will expand in market share as the economy tightens, the younger generation realizes that these are the ultimate green products, and we finally grow tired of cheap over-produced goods that break after the second or third time used.
Happy New Year, I'll see you here next year!
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Comments
Great post, Walt, thanks!
With all the positive vibes towards 2009 and the smaller (ie: non-eBay) marketplaces, I think one prediction everyone is skipping over, likely because it comes off as negative--though I think for us, as sellers, it will be a positive--will be the sorting out of and eventual death of some of the smaller selling venues.
While I love the potential of both Bonanzle as a Fixed Price site and SeeAuctions as an auction based alternative, I really thought we'd be seeing more niche selling sites by now. Perhaps "vintage" is the niche, though that is very wide. Or perhaps the true little slice I expected to come IS our own web sites.
But if the trend is going to continue to be a move away from eBay, I really think we as independent sellers are going to benefit most if the buyers and sellers tend to consolidate in one relevant venue rather than spreading out across dozens, which is what worried me most about what was going on in '08.
I agree with you about Google, but then again I've tried using it for some very specific searches (such as my regulars on eBay) and have not had any worthwhile results. I don't know if this is caused by a delay in indexing or selective indexing, but I can't recall making a purchase directly through a Google product search any time recently.
So here's my own prediction for '09, eBay isn't going anywhere, but also Bonanzle and Etsy strengthen as Fixed Price platforms, SeeAuctions gets a bit more of a foothold on auctions, and some of the other smaller alternative-eBay venues disappear (though I more expect the groundwork to be laid for this to actually happen by 2010).
Thanks, Cliff
things-and-other-stuff.com
Very insightful Cliff. I've heard and seen in the blogs, although I can't say if it's true or not, that Google and eBay have an ongoing spat.
I am seeing more of my income stream flow through my own site and my social networking endeavors.
As usual you are spot on. I'm referring to your statement that most of the smaller sites won't make it.
There are so many, that it's obvious not all can, nor should survive.
One such site I have faith in is Bonanzle and for the reason that it's users are so tenacious about promoting the community, when people become evangelical in their support for a site, it's hard to knock it down.
Readers should note that Cliff Aliperti is an incredible resource for all things related to the early era of Hollywood ephemera and collectibles.
You'll find him everywhere on the web by Googling the one word term thingsandotherstuff
Once again, you post is right on the mark! And Cilff Aliperti's insights on the subject just add to it.
I too must agree that there are many new smaller sites out there now, and I forsee an influx of many more in the first half of 2009, as more sellers get fustrated with the big boys and look for the ultimate eBay Alternative. I feel you will see a steady "shuffling" around on the smaller sites for a while, while the smaller sellers try to find the best new venue for their items. In the end though I agree with both of you Bonanzle and Esty for fixed price sites and Seeauctions for Auction based will be clear winners this year. eBay and Amazon will just be the accent added to the small sellers list of venues no longer the main place.
Hi Wally - nice reading your site. I just wanted to politely point out to you that in one of your "Find me on" IDs you put "Linkein" - I'm supposing that should be "Linkedin" or "LinkedIn"...just wanted to let you know in case you want to change it
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