(AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)
At the midpoint of the 2009 season, the 5-3 Atlanta Falcons find themselves in the hunt for a playoff position and on track to end their 43-year-old string of failing to put together back-to-back winning seasons.
A look at where the Falcons stand as Week 10 begins:
The Record: At 5-3, Atlanta sits in second place in the NFC South behind the 8-0 New Orleans Saints. It's unlikely the Falcons will catch the Saints, barring an epic collapse by the division leaders, but Atlanta is firmly in the wildcard hunt.
The combined record of Atlanta's first-half opponents is 35-29, but much of it is carried by the three teams to which the Falcons lost: New England, Dallas, and New Orleans. They're 6-2, 6-2, and 8-0. What it all means is that they won the games they should have and have thus far lost the games in which they weren't favored.
What matters most is if the season ended today, Atlanta and the Philadelphia Eagles would be the NFC wildcard teams.
The positives: What could have been a critical has turned into a positive. The running game, which stalled in the middle of the first eight-game stretch, has picked up considerable over the past two games.
Running back Michael Turner has averaged 158.5 yards/game in his last two contests. In the first six games, he managed only a 67 yard/game average.
The defense has been opportunistic and downright cutthroat in the red zone. Despite allowing 370 yards/game, they're averaging a 12th-best 20.8 points/game, a number ballooned by the 35 points given up to the Saints. They're also producing more turnovers; they are currently tied for third in the NFL with 18 forced turnovers.
The critical: As mentioned, the running game took a while to get going, but has improved in the recent two weeks.
The offensive line's pass protection has broken down in recent weeks. Atlanta is still tied for third-fewest sacks allowed with 12, but has given up 10 of those in the past three games.
Quarterback Matt Ryan has had a little bit of a skid in the middle of the first half, but is still managing games effectively enough to keep Atlanta on the winning side more often than not. Ryan's 10 interceptions are tied for fifth-most in the NFL, though his completion percentage has remained high (60.7).
The Falcons run defense has been a little leaky in the first half, allowing a ninth-worst 988 yards, but has allowed only six rushing touchdowns, which is above the league average.
Where they rank:
- Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton leads the NFL with 84 tackles
- Running back Michael Turner is second in the NFL with 10 touchdowns
- Tight end Tony Gonzalez is tied for second in the NFL among tight ends with 28 first-down receptions.
- Gonzalez' 73.7 % of catches for first downs is tops among tight ends with 12 or more catches.
- Safety Erik Coleman's 65 tackles is tops among NFL defensive backs.
- Safety Thomas DeCoud's two sacks are tied for the most by a defensive back in the NFL.
- Linebacker Mike Peterson's six pass deflections are tied for fourth-most among NFL linebackers.
- Atlanta's offense is tops in the NFL in fourth-down conversions with 83% (five of six converted).
Offensive MVP: Matt Ryan, Quarterback. Perhaps it's easy to anoint the quarterback the MVP, but that perception is also one of the challenges of the job. As your quarterback goes, so goes your offense.
"For the quarterback in the NFL, when things go well they talk about the quarterback," Atlanta Head Coach Mike Smith said of Ryan's 2009's first-half play this past Sunday. "When things don’t go well, they talk about the quarterback. Matt has played very well the entire season. I don’t think you can judge a one game stretch, a two game stretch, or a three game stretch in terms of determining."
Statistically Ryan is in the middle of the pack in virtually every passer category, but to truly evaluate his influence, one must go beyond the stats. Smith has spoken multiple times about Ryan's ability to call plays at the line of scrimmage. Ryan's second year in the NFL has been about mental growth and his ability to recognize defenses and adjust at the line of scrimmage.
When Ryan's operated the Atlanta offense in the no huddle he's found much of his success. He's also got the team into a better play based on what the defense is showing. Smith has cited a number of occasions where Ryan's judgment switched a play call to a running play, a major factor behind Turner's 10 rushing touchdowns.
His poise and leadership continues to grow and he is the real leader of the offense, despite what the numbers reflect.
Honorable Mention: Michael Turner, Running back.
Defensive MVP: Mike Peterson, Linebacker. The 11-year veteran was brought to Atlanta to provide some experience to a young defense and because of his familiarity with the defensive system that is run with the Falcons. What he's become is the leader of the defense and the player that brings an attitude and swagger to that side of the ball.
His tutoring of second-year linebacker Curtis Lofton is evident. The 2008 second-round draft pick has grown tremendously in his sophmore season and looks to be the future of the Atlanta defense.
But Peterson is playing at a high level as well. He's often around the ball and seems to always been involved in a big play for the team.
He's tied for first on the team with two forced fumbles, he's second on the team with five passes defensed, and he's added a sack and an interception. Additionally his 42 tackles are good for third-most on the Falcons.
Honorable Mention: Thomas DeCoud, Safety.
A look ahead: The schedule softens some, but only slightly. The current record of the remaining eight teams is 30-35, but much of that comes from meeting 1-7 Tampa Bay twice in the second half. There are two tough New York road trips, but Atlanta's toughest matchups are potentially New Orleans and Philadelphia (a game that could go a long way toward determining wildcard scenarios) and both are at home. If the pattern of the first half of the season (winning against losing teams) continues, Atlanta could end up 10-6.
10-6 would end the streak, but it may or may not be enough to get the Falcons into the playoffs. As previously mentioned, who they lose to could determine that as much as their record.
Smith said on Wednesday that he had no idea what number of wins it would take to get into the playoffs, also saying that he didn't have a goal in mind either. He pointed to the stretch Atlanta is entering as critical.
"There are so many things that can happen in the second half of the season," Smith said. "When you get into November and December, there are so many people that are still in the mix. I don't know if there's anybody that's even mathematically out of it at this point in time. All we can do is go one game at a time."
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