Should China seek to dismantle India? Could it? One expert at a government-backed Chinese think tank believes China can and should. As alarming as this may sound, the United States should not become overly concerned. China consists of many disparate actors and interests; the beliefs of one individual should not be taken as the belief or intent of the Chinese government.
In an article published by the China International Institute of Strategic Studies (CIISS), strategist Zhan Lue argues forcefully for China to take actions that would lead to the dissolution of the “so-called” Indian state. Zhan posits that there is historically no such thing as an Indian nation because the only element of unity in India is its highly regressive, anti-modern Hindu religion. Zhan suggests that China could break apart India with little effort, simply by allying with India’s neighbors and raising ethnic consciousness among the many nationalities that comprise India.
As a nation given to symbolism, signaling, and indirectness, China’s true intentions are often interpreted by gleaning informal and unofficial statements and actions. In 1970, for example, when China and the United States were still bitter Cold War enemies, Chairman Mao Zedong invited an American writer, Edgar Snow, to China’s National Day Celebration in Beijing. China intended for this invitation to serve as a signal that China was willing to improve relations with the United States.
Because China often communicates its intentions in such an indirect manner, China experts and foreign governments alike tend to place significant emphasis on proxy opinions, statements, or gestures that might provide insight into what the government in Beijing is thinking. It comes as little surprise, then, that an article released by a government-supported think tank such as CIISS could lead to great consternation simply by suggesting something as provocative as dismantling the world’s largest democracy.
But China is neither unitary nor monolithic. Rather, China is comprised of a range of actors, each of whom has interests that may diverge from those of the central government. China’s private sector businesses may desire peaceful relations for the sake of commerce but the Chinese military may not because it may seek reasons to increase funding for weapons systems. Chinese civil servants, who control and approve certain elements within government processes, may be members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but might have narrow financial or egotistical interests that conflict with the aims and ideas of senior members of the CCP. There are also ideological divisions in China that separate liberal progressives, Confucian nationalist/traditionalists, old school communists, and ideologically agnostic capitalists.
China may not be a liberal democracy but it still consists of a number of identifiable interest groups, each of which has its own goals and priorities.
The challenge, then, for those concerned with China’s true intentions is how to discern the insignificant or uncoordinated messages from those intended to represent the views of the central government, like the Edgar Snow visit.
While there is no tried and true methodology for interpreting signals from China, there is little reason to believe that Zhan’s article represents the views of the government in Beijing. Zhan’s article was released against the backdrop of China and India’s 13th round of border talks, which ended on August 8th. In this meeting, which was characterized as a positive one, China expressed a desire to build a stronger strategic partnership with India. With two strong but conflicting messages being sent simultaneously, the official statements emphasizing an improved relationship with India carry far more weight than the nationalistic arguments of a single expert who does not officially represent the views of the Chinese government.
To be sure, China and India are no less strategic contrasts than China and the United States; they did, after all, fight a short, localized war over border issues in 1962. But like China’s relationship with the United States, the future is what they make of it. Relations characterized by cooperation and strategic partnership offer benefits to both India and China; by contrast, attempts to subvert the world’s largest democracy would only invite blowback.
Interpreting China’s intentions is not an exact science but in this case, the United States—and India—should not lose any sleep over Zhan’s nationalistic sentiment.
Comments
I think your analysis is correct. Sounds like an ultranationalist comment representing the far right in Chinese politics. Any country can be broken up in theory. China can be broken up into several countries as well (Not just Tibet and Xinjiang), but also Eastern China. For Indians, these statements are a blessing in disguise as it keeps them on their toes. The best Indian response is to say quiet, continue to show an image of pacifism and being weak to the high and mighty China, while aggresively increasing Economic and Military power.
Never trust the Chinese Communist party and military. They are the worst entities in this world. I was chased and spied on while I was in China. They tried to get me killed..why? just because I expressed my opinions at my college meeting. The communist party agents didn't like my views and my life became hell. Chinese people in China are making good money these days but their lives are like that of a caged bird. Never really free.
While this might not be the intention of the Chinese government should India break up into 20 or 30 states by whatever means (intended or not) the sub-continent would merely to return to the state it was in before the British put it all together. It may even be beneficial to the Muslims and other minorities within the current boundary. Also Tamil Nadu would gain it's independent homeland that they have been wanting for the longest time.
Even if it is not the official strategy, it still shows the "threat" that China expects from India. Official Indian reaction was pretty solid...just ignore the rhetoric. Unofficial reaction: People became agitated and much more united in wake of this "potential threat". As for the claim that the Chinese can break the country apart: It sounds very far fetched. Nuclear deterrence plays a major role in these circumstances. India has missiles that can hit Beijing pretty accurately. So if the chinese intentions loom plausible and the country takes any action..a full fledged war can not be ruled out. In that case..a nuclear option (and devastation of both countries) is not off the table. Will chinese government (and Indian government) like to go back 50 years in economic progress...I doubt it.
I must say the belligerence in even considering breaking up a sovereign nation is astounding!
Same is true for China which can be broken up into multiple pieces with the help of Japan, South Korea, Vietnam. There is a very good proverb which says 'People leaving in glass houses, don't throw stone at others' :)
This is why there are wars, everyone else assuming they own someone else and should dictate how things are done, especially when they cant even keep their own backyard clean. And why is it the jobs of anyone but the people that live there to decide what is best. This is why people are not happy with governments anymore, they are left out of the decision process that effects their lives. If the people want a break-up, let them, if not, its not anyones right to interfere. This is why there are wars.
There are 1 billion people, there are 1 billion voices. Isn't that all the West want China to have under the pretense of 'democracy'? It is great to see that there are different voices coming out of China other than the government's "foreign affair" voice! Back to the subject, India should indeed be disintegrated into pieces, so should Russia and the U.S.. Make them as small as the European countries. India, Russia, and U.S. are imperialistic and very eager on expanding their power beyond their borders, unlike China which just wants to get back what belongs to them and be happy with it.
So, if China belives it can break India in to 20 or 30 states, they can back the $%#* off. As the world might know, India is a nuclear power and has nuclear capability to cut every damn Chinese or a Pakistanis dick with its precision and accuracy. So, China bring it on....I would love to set ur god damn ass on fire.
Jai Hind
Of course people never bothered to check the sources. The Indian news media got hold of this info, not from a government-based thinker from China, but from a Chinese internet forum, and spin it into something like this.
Seems many "sensational" news in Indian news about China's intentions came from such ridiculous sources.
China is such a country which has multiple autonomous regions, if we want to break China it'd not be very difficult to do so.
The Chinese majority seems to be racist,bigoted idiots who think they are superior to the rest of the world. The next Hitler is surely going to come from China. China can be broken up into so many countries. The only thing that unites China is the Han Chinese that they have infiltrated all over. Oh, and let's start counting the post China countries, Tibet, Mongolia just to name a couple..hmmm...
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