February 16th/17th 2013 Storm Discussion
Please see my separate storm discussion coming a little later this morning with a forecast map and discussion. It appears that we will see the potential for some snow tomorrow and tomorrow evening although there is still a good bit of uncertainty to the amount. So stay tuned I will update as I see fit over the next 24-36 hours.
After the storm it will be very cold on Sunday and into Monday with lows dropping well into the 20s Sunday morning and struggling to get out of the 30s. Monday will see another very cold morning before a moderating trend begins.
Our next chance of rain comes Tuesday with a cold frontal passage. The dynamics will likely weaken as the front passes thus only light rain is expected. Our next chance comes late next week. A storm system will advance into the area. There will likely be a cold air damming event across the eastern US but right now it looks like any significant wintry precipitation would probably be from Virginia north. The 00z ECMWF certainly hints a period of a wintry mix could be possible especially across western NC Friday morning, but most guidance has this as a mostly cold rain event.
Another similar event could be in store for next Sunday as again a storm system moves into a cold air damming setup, but the cold air may just not be strong enough for wintry precipitation over NC. However, we shall see as there is plenty of time.
The theme after today for this 10 day period is colder than normal and unsettled with several storm chances.
National Longer Range Discussion
Not much has changed regarding the longer range. The core of the cold will likely be in the West and Central US with the East more uncertain. Last night’s euro weeklies showed a colder pattern into the first few days of March and then it breaks down. I could see this happening. It does look like in general a cooler pattern will persist through the end of February. But again the focus will likely be in the West and Central.