Raleigh Weather Discussion
Today will be a cool day with some scattered showers through the day with the rain ending by this evening. It looks dry the rest of the week though with temperatures close to normal.
It now appears our chances for precipitation this weekend are looking low. Most of the model data now shows that we will likely not see much in the way of moisture this weekend as it appears as of now that the ECMWF idea may be correct. The GFS still shows a few scattered snow flurries possible Saturday, but looks like any storm development will occur well offshore. Now keep in mind I have seen this events where the model s are forecasting a wave to form on an arctic front show up 8 or 9 days out (remember last Friday’s ECMWF run?) but then go away only to come back in about the 72 hour time frame. So until the shortwave in question is on shore, tonight/tomorrow, I won’t feel 100% good about ruling anything out. For now, though I will forecast mostly dry conditions with perhaps a scattered snow flurry Saturday.
It looks like another storm system will bring some rain and warmer temperatures by Tuesday with another cold shot behind it. The models are indicating an interesting set up for late next week as a strong cold high pressure could be sliding from the Northern Plains into the Lakes and Northeast while a cut off low over the southern plains moves east. The models taken literally show a cold rain or a wintry mix to rain type scenario for this storm next Friday. However this is 9-10 days out so things can change. The 00z ECMWF has a 50/50 low and a west-based –NAO block over NE Canada, so that could argue the storm could trend south and be more wintry. But we shall see.
National Extended Forecast Discussion
The models, especially the ECMWF Ensemble, wont to keep a strong –NAO in place this period. However, the models differ a bit on the degree of ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, The GFS Ensembles have a bit more and drop a pretty cold air mass into the Rockies/Central US during this time, while the ECMWF Ensemble does show cold air out there but not as cold as the GFS ENS shows. I think either way it looks to be a cold pattern for the interior West, Rockies, and Plains.
However, the models also keep a degree of ridging in the eastern US, which keeps the cold air at bay through the period. Is it right? Maybe or maybe the strong –NAO alters the pattern in a way the models don’t see yet. I do believe the cold will be concentrated in the West/Plains though this period.
March is right around the corner.