The National Weather Service (NWS) in Burlington, VT will be issuing Winter Storm Watches effective from 7 pm Thursday to 7 am Saturday for all of Northern New York including Clinton, Essex, Franklin and St. Lawrence Counties and Rutland, Windsor and Northward Counties in Vermont.
According to meteorologist Scott Whitier, "confidence is very high of a Nor'easter moving from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning to southeast of Cape Cod Friday Night into Saturday which means the heaviest amounts of precipitation will be across southern and eastern New England. Meanwhile, another disturbance will move across the North Country with some snow as well."
A "very high" confidence means there is a greater than 80% chance of the weather event occuring as predicted.
There are two weather systems converging in the region, so the prediction of their exact timing is complicated.. As of 4pm Wednesday, the northern disturbance will move into Northern New York and Vermont Thursday Night into Friday. Snowfall from the Nor'easter moves south to north across the region during Friday with the heart of the storm hitting the region Friday afternoon-night and then lingering into Saturday morning.
According to the report, there is again a "very high" confidence of more than 6 inches of total snowfall. Snowfall of greater than 6 inches meets the NWS criteria for a Winter Storm Watch or Warning. (for more info: http://exm.nr/X5ghT9). MODERATE to HIGH Confidence (60-80 percent) for the snowfall depicted in the attached graphic.
There is a 60-80% chance for even more snow (moderate to high confidence). There is a chance that snowfall could equal 8-14 inches across the North Country with some locally higher amounts possible in central and southern VT Green Mountains and possibly portions of the Adirondacks. We may see possibly slightly less values for Northeastern Vermont.
Snowfall rates will likely exceed 1 inch per hour at times. This would be Friday into Friday night in northern New York and portions of western Vermont. This snow will hit Vermont on Friday night.
The snow density will be on the light side and we'll see increasing North winds on Friday night and Saturday. This combination of snow and higher winds will result in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. This will make hazardous driving conditions across the region.
The greatest commuter concerns should be Friday evenings commute. Saturday morning travel and to a slight lesser degree Friday mornings commute will also be hazardous.
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