High pressure will keep the weather tranquil for one more day across the Capital Region. A major late season winter storm looks to impact the area beginning this evening and lasting through Tuesday. The work week will start out cold across the Capital Region, as temperatures dipped into the teens this morning thanks to the clear skies and calm winds associated with the high pressure system mentioned above. As the high pressure area retreats to our north and east today, it will allow for clouds to begin to increase across the area during the afternoon.
Low pressure over the middle Mississippi valley will track northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes and weaken tonight. Meanwhile, a secondary coastal low pressure area is forecast to take shape over the North Carolina coast. These coastal low pressure area hugs the Atlantic coastline and is forecast to be in the vicinity of Cape Cod and/or Boston by Tuesday evening, and then eastern Maine by Wednesday morning.
At this point in time, given the current forecast track, it looks as if the Capital Region will see a wintry mix of precipitation with this system. Significant snow and/or ice accumulation is forecast to occur over the region during the time period from Monday evening to Tuesday evening. Precipitation will likely start as snow this evening, and may come down at a moderate to heavy intensity at times overnight. As the coastal low develops tomorrow morning, warmer air moves northward up the Hudson Valley, and may cause a changeover or mix of the snow with sleet and/or freezing rain, which may turn to rain by afternoon, as temperatures rise above freezing. As the low coastal low pressure moves northeastward toward Cape Cod by evening, colder west to northwesterly flow will set up over the region, changing precipitation back to snow before things taper down Tuesday night.
Behind the system on Wednesday, unsettled weather looks to persist as several upper level disturbances pass through the region. This will keep chances for light rain and/or snow showers over the region, and a bit of a breeze. No real defining area of high pressure looks to build in through the end of the work week, and a northerly to northwesterly flow persists. This should keep temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages through the remainder of the forecast period. The saving grace being that no other major storms are foreseen after we get through dealing with the system on Tuesday.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
**National Weather Service WINTER STORM WARNING In Effect From 6 PM EDT Monday Through 8 PM EDT Tuesday.**
Today: Mostly sunny to start with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High near 35. Light and variable winds.
Tonight: Overcast with light snow developing during the evening. Snow may become heavy at times after midnight. Low in the mid 20’s. Southeast winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of snow is 100 percent. Snowfall accumulations of 3-5 inches.
Tuesday: Periods of snow, mixing with sleet and/or freezing rain during the morning. Precipitation changing to all rain by afternoon. Precipitation may be heavy at times during the morning. High near 40. East winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. Additional snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches with minor ice accumulation also possible during the morning.
Tuesday Night: Periods of light rain changing back to light snow before tapering off late at night. Low near 25. Northwest winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. Little if any additional snow accumulation expected.
Wednesday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a chance of rain and/or snow showers from time to time. Windy. High near 40. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent. Little if any additional snow accumulation possible.
Thursday: Partly sunny and windy. High near 40 and low near 20.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High near 40 and low near 25.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High near 45 and low near 25.