Raleigh Weather Discussion
Although we are going to see a vigorous upper level disturbance drop into the Tennessee Valley and possibly cut off for a brief period. However, it appears that this system will not be able to get potent enough to draw any potential off shore storm development close to the coast. There could be some snow in the NC Mountains as is typical with these types of events, and also over the interior Southeast and Deep South. But I do not see anything east of the mountains this weekend.
For the Triangle and much of the Carolinas the weekend looks dry and cool with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the low to mid 50s.
The next storm system to watch is next Tuesday/Wednesday. The trends overnight have been to speed up the system a bit and strengthen it, but the result is a slightly further north track and rain on Tuesday. As the system slows and takes on more of a negative tilt later Tuesday, a coastal low could form and rapidly strengthen and we could see a deformation band setup somewhere over the Carolinas or Virginia Tuesday night/Wednesday with rain possibly changing to snow. That is the general scenario being painted by the models this morning. This could change however, so stay tuned, the trends though have been a bit further north overnight. A fair amount of 6z GFS Ensemble members and 00z ECMWF Ensemble members still show a significant winter storm so it is still on the table and I will monitor it all weekend and post. There is a good chance this might be a last threat.
Cooler than normal weather will likely last most of next week, but there are some signs of spring like warmth by next weekend. If the models are correct next weekend could be dry with temperatures well into the 60s and potentially near 70.
National Extended Weather Forecast Discussion
The Euro Ensemble continues the cool pattern through most of the 11-15 day period although it weakens towards the end of the period, while the GFS Ensemble begins to warm the pattern. The Euro weeklies break the pattern down by week ¾, and I think this is reasonable. So I think a colder pattern will hold on through the first half of March, with a gradually warming pattern for the eastern half of the nation by the 2nd half of March, and probably an increase in severe weather opportunities.