One week ago we were feeling a cold blast from central Canada with wind chills heading below zero as low temperatures crashed into the single digits last Tuesday morning. One week later we’re talking about unusual warmth and high temperatures that may be a few degrees from a record Tuesday afternoon. This is why I love the weather and weather forecasting.
The surge of warmth already pushed temperatures into the low 50s today, though it was a damp day with overcast skies and passing showers. Tomorrow will be amazing as strong southerly winds pump very mild air into the Midwest. Highs will head for the mid 60s with mixed clouds and sunshine and a few passing showers. What a day for a walk or maybe a round of golf…though the wet soils and strong winds may make golf a bit challenging. Here’s what our storm looks like coming out of the mountains. These are winds and pressure systems around 18,000 feet and the big dip in the lines over the Rockies is the large storm heading east.
The record high for Tuesday in Cincinnati is 68 degrees from 1914, in Dayton it’s 66 from 1914 and in Columbus it’s 65 degrees from 2002 and 1975. I am forecasting a high of 64 in Cincy with low 60s in Dayton and Columbus. Nice!
Unfortunately when a strong storm produces extreme temperature contrasts it generally produces extreme precipitation events and is always followed by a blast of much colder air. The same is true this time.
Low pressure moving from Illinois toward southern Canada on Wednesday will push a strong cold front across the Midwest. Ahead of the front there will be widespread rain and thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast. I expect the rain here from before sunrise through late morning before things start to dry out. This map shows the weather hazards for the next two days.
Here’s what I expect for rainfall.
The latest model guidance now shows a significant severe weather threat just west and southwest of our area. We may have some strong thunderstorms here with damaging winds and if the timing of the cold front changes, we could get organized severe weather here as well. Check out the severe weather risk map for tomorrow into tomorrow night. The yellow and red areas are "Slight" to "Moderate" risk areas respectively. In the moderate risk area we may have a tornado and damaging wind outbreak late tomorrow. On Wednesday the risk shifts east.
So, it looks as if tomorrow will be the pick day of the week for our area followed by rain and thunderstorms late tomorrow night and early Wednesday, some with heavy rain and strong winds.
Temperatures will start in the upper 50s on Wednesday before falling to the 30s by evening and near 20 by Thursday morning. We may even enjoy a few flurries or snow showers as the cold air rushes into the Ohio Valley. From there we’ll stay cold through the weekend with light snow or snow showers possible on Friday and Saturday, but accumulations look minimal (less than an inch) at this point.
Keep your eyes on the sky and enjoy the changing weather!