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Will yet another new internet advertiser be a Super Bowl loser?

Last year, internet advertisers' commercials -- three from Groupon, two from Salesforce.com and one each from Homeaway.com, Living Social and GoDaddy.com -- were among the ten least effective Super Bowl spots, according to Ace Metrix measurements.

This year, another internet advertiser is hoping history doesn't repeat itself.

Adding injury to insult

It's bad enough those commercials wasted lots of money -- $3 million-plus for 30 seconds' air time, plus at least half a million for production, plus talent payments to celebrities including Timothy Hutton, Joan Rivers and Will.i.am. What's worse is that they produced big yawns -- and Groupon provoked a consumer firestorm by appearing to mock worldwide humanitarian disasters.

Betting the farm

This year, 2nd Story Software, which has been doing most of its advertising online, is staking a huge chunk of its limited marketing resources on one 30-second Super Bowl commercial for their TaxACT income tax software.

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Good timing

According to an e-mail (in response to this Examiner.com article) from Jessi Dolmage, 2nd Story's public relations and creative solutions manager, the buy is driven by the fact that millions of taxpayers expecting refunds file as soon as they can after the January 31 deadline for their W2 forms to arrive -- and if February 5 is anything, it's close to January 31.

They also believe that in the Super Bowl telecast they'll reach a huge audience (a record 111 million viewers last year) in a tv environment free from competitors like TurboTax and, this year, H&R Block tax software.

Not-so-good message?

According to a 2nd Story press release, the commercial for their free federal edition "uses a courageous and gutsy story to put viewers in touch with the feeling of being totally free at emotional, physical and psychological levels."

Of course, here in Richmond (or elsewhere in Virginia and the other 40 states that levy income tax), taxpayers won't feel free at a state level, because you have to pay for the version of TaxACT that does state income taxes.

They'll also be able to get the same feeling of total freedom, such as it is, with free federal income-tax software from TurboTax and H&R Block, both of whom started advertising heavily in January and both of whom are far better known (and therefore trusted).

Long odds against one-shots

It may be, as the TaxACT website says, that "No other free compares! [sic]," but that's a matter of details -- and a :30 commercial, which research has shown can convey an average of 1.25 new ideas to consumers, is not exactly the best way to communicate details. Especially if it's running just once.

There are two reasons advertisers repeat television spots, only one of which relates to audience size. In normal programming it takes repetition to make sure of reaching your target audience, fragmented as it is by 200+ cable and broadcast channels. Then, when you reach them, it takes repetition for even as few as 1.25 ideas to sink in.

Being bold with your commercial itself can be a good idea, especially if it stands out among the clutter. But when buying air time for that commercial, it's better to follow the conventional wisdom and repeat, repeat, repeat. 2011 Edelmann Trust Barometer research shows that only 4% of adults believe a commercial the first time they see it.

Only once in history have consumers remembered a commercial that ran only once on the Super Bowl, and that was the one-minute Apple spot in 1984 directed by Ridley Scott and produced at the then-record budget of $900,000 (worth $2,032,581.33 today).

The odds are very long, and it would be nice if 2nd Story beat them. But don't bet the farm on it.

, Richmond Advertising Examiner

As a copywriter and creative director in New York, Miami and Richmond, Bruce Goldman has won 414 international, national, regional, local and industry awards for advertising creativity and effectiveness. He's taught at the School of Visual Arts (New York) and the Virginia Commonwealth University...

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