The most recent primary totals coming from the 2nd CD indicate that incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen could be in the toughest re-election contest of his 5 term congressional career. With three of the district's counties that have been in Larsen's camp not reporting numbers on Friday, Larsen's lead over Tea Party/Republican candidate John Koster has shrunk to 126 votes district wide:
 

• Rick Larsen (D) 67,259 - 42.06%
• John Koster (R) 67,133 - 41.98%
• Diana McGinnes (D) 9,743 - 6.09%
• John Carmack (R) 8,701 - 5.44%
• Larry Kalb (D) 7,086 - 4.43%

Obviously these numbers will change when new tallies are added next week. However, considering where the remainder of the votes will be coming from, an incumbent who has been used to winning by double digit margins in the recent past might be more than just mildly concerned. In the two largest counties in the district, Snohomish and Whatcom, Larsen is actually trailing Koster by a total of 3,500 votes. The breakdown of where the next vote counts will be coming from looks like this:

Island County will submit new numbers on Monday. They are projecting an additional 3,200 votes to be added to their already counted 20,664. Larsen leads Koster there by 398.

King County is really a non-player in this contest with only a handful of precincts included in the 2nd CD. Thus far they have recorded 144 votes in this race; giving Larsen a 16 vote advantage. They may be reporting new numbers on Monday.

San Juan County would appear to be the incumbent's stronghold. They will not be reporting new numbers until next Friday. So far Larsen holds a 1,703 vote lead over Koster with 6,719 ballots counted. They are projecting another 100 ballots at their next count.

Skagit County has Larsen with a 1500 vote lead over Koster out of 19,730 votes cast. They will be reporting on a projected 6,500 new ballots on Monday.

Snohomish County currently has Koster in the lead by some 2,676 votes out of 64,362 cast. They will be posting the results of an additional 4,400 ballots on Tuesday.

Whatcom County likewise has Koster in the lead by some 800 votes out of 48,303 cast. They are expected to release an unspecified number of additional results on Thursday.

As I noted on Wednesday, Larsen appears to be counting on the addition of the 16,000+ votes of the Progressive community to put him over the top in the general. He was quick to point out the "53% Democratic vote" on his Facebook page. I am not quite as confident as his campaign seems to be. While I have not heard directly from the Larry Kalb camp, supporters I have spoken with say they are likely to stay home for the general election. As for Diana McGinnes, she responded to an email saying that she has not and does not expect to be contacted by the Larsen campaign. She added that she fully expects to be starting up her next campaign to unseat whoever is elected between Larsen and Koster as soon as January.

"...I'll begin my campaign in January for the next election. It's clear from this election there are people out there who want someone who is offering solutions, not political spin and slogans. Someone they recognize who will be honest about our problems and discuss solutions, rather than spin the issues, and is willing to work for them not corporate donors."

I have no doubt that many who voted for Kalb and McGinnes will have a change of heart when it finally comes down to the wire. The question is; how hard will Larsen work for those votes.

Peace,
Chad Shue