The U.S. military is prepared to shoot down the final stage of a North Korean long-range missile--if it threatens American territory. But it's unclear if Pyongyang is actually preparing to launch a missile that could reach Alaska, Hawaii, or even western portions of the United States.
Air Force General Victor Renuart told the Washington TImes Thursday that U.S. missile defenses are "ready" to engage a North Korean Tapeodong-2--if sensors determine that it poses a danger our territory. However, General Renuart was quick to point out that missile interceptors would not be used, if the same systems decide that the TD-2 is not a threat.
".."We will not intercept something that is not a threat to North America or U.S. land space in Hawaii."
"If the missile falls harmlessly in the ocean, there is no reason to conduct an attempted intercept using regional or strategic interceptors", he said.
Originally, there seemed to be little doubt that Pyongyang was preparing for another long-range missile test. Last month, Japanese and South Korean press outlets reported that intelligence officials had detected activity similar to that observed before the TD-2 launch in April. Analysts suggested that preparations might be complete by early July, allowing North Korea to fire the missile on a U.S. holiday--July 4th.
It wouldn't be the first time Pyongyang has tried to grab world headlines--and attention from the United States--by testing a missile around Independence Day. In 2006, North Korea launched a TD-2 (and at least five medium and short-range missiles) on July 4th. However, the Tapeodong-2 exploded only 42 seconds into its flight, sending debris falling onto the Musudan-ri test range, and the adjacent waters of the Sea of Japan.
The most recent TD-2 test was more successful--the missile overflew Japan's home islands before crashing into the western Pacific--North Korea's crude ICBM has yet to demonstrate its full range. Pyongyang's desire to prove the system works provides one incentive for another test. It also fits nicely into DPRK plans to demonstrate American weakness in the region and gain more concessions in future talks on its nuclear program,
But some American officials express doubts about a possible TD-2 test during the 4th of July weekend. Sources told Bloomberg's Tony Capaccio that there are "no signs" of an impending, long-range missile test in North Korea.
"...officials who are privy to information about North Korean launch preparations, said there are no signs of the work necessary to launch a long-range missile during the U.S. July 4 Independence Day celebration. The officials don’t rule out the firing of short- and medium-range missiles capable of reaching Japanese waters."
David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists told Bloomberg there "were lots of signs of an imminent launch in early April," preparations which have not been observed--or at least confirmed-- this time around. Before the previous test, government and commercial imagery satellites tracked the movement of the TD-2 airframe to Musudan-ri; its assembly on the launch pad and fueling operations before the launch.
But General Renuart, who heads U.S. Northern Command, believes another Tapeodong-2 test may be in the offing. As he told Bill Gertz of the Times earlier this week , " I think we ought to assume there might be one on the first of July and continue to be prepared and ready."
So, will there be a launch--if not this weekend, then perhaps in the coming weeks?
The evidence seems to support that scenario. In his conversation with the Washington Times, General Renuart emphasized that U.S. missile defenses are ready for a TD-2 launch. Ground-based interceptor missiles in Alaska and California have been placed on alert and missile defense ships are on station in the Sea of Japan and around Hawaii.
That's quite a departure from the April test, when Mr. Gates downplayed the TD-2's capabilities, and other administration officials suggested that the missile was, indeed, a space launch vehicle as North Korea claimed. Western intelligence agencies never detected a satellite after the April event, and most analysts believe the "space launch" was nothing more than a ruse.
The most recent TD-2 launch was quickly followed by Pyongyang's second underground nuclear test, a blast that clearly changed the geopolitical calculus in northeast Asia--and U.S. concerns about the North Korean missile threat. With Kim Jong-il having demonstrated his ability to develop (and test) nuclear weapons, American officials faced a grim reality. Not only would the DPRK eventually develop a nuclear warhead for its long-range missiles, those rockets would (eventually) be capable ot targeting U.S. territory. Against that back drop, Mr. Obama and his national security team can't be as dismissive about future North Korean missile tests.
Still, a nuclear-tipped TD-2 is still several years away. And, in its previous tests, the crude ICBM has fallen well short of its advertised range, suggesting that the Tapeodong-2 system still suffers from technical problems. Does the current "threat" actually warrant deployment of that THAAD unit and the sea-based tracking radar?
The answer to that question may be found in the escalating tensions between Pyongyang and its foes, and political considerations here at home. As General Renuart reminded Bill Gertz, North Korea remains an irrational regime; discerning the intentions of Kim Jong-il is next-to-impossible. North Korea has certainly thumbed its nose at the U.S. in the past, with little regard for the potential consequences.
Given that history, the prospect of a North Korean missile landing in Hawaiian waters--or even on land--cannot be dismissed. If that happened--and the island was undefended--there would be political hell to pay.
In fact, Mr. Obama's policy on North Korea has been under attack in recent months. In a recent public opinon poll, a majority of Americans said the president "wasn't being tough enough" towards the DPRK. Moving the THAAD unit and the sea-based radar allows the administration to calibrate military actions with its increasingly tough rhetoic on North Korea.
But clearly there are limits on how far the commander-in-chief is willing to go. As General Renuart emphasized in that Washington Times interview, our missile defenses will only be used if the TD-2 threatens U.S. territory. That can't be very reassuring for the South Koreans or Japanese, who live much closer to the North Korean threat.
Exasperated with a lack of American action, Japanese officials vowed in April to shoot down the DPRK missile, using their own Aegis warships. It was an extraordinary move for a nation whose constitution renounces militarism. Given the operational limits (apparently) imposed on our Pacific-based missile defenses, it would not be surprising to see the Japanese threaten the same action for the next TD-2 test.
From their perspective, maybe the real issue isn't whether Pyongyang will launch the missile, but rather, does the U.S. has the political will to actually shoot it down?
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