The odds are about even at this point, but Tuesday's attempt at passing a new proposal may be the straw that broke the camel's back. Boehner was willing to fund the government in exchange for doing away with subsidies for congress, their staffs, and the president. Many republicans balked at holding out all this time and only getting punishment for themselves and their staffs. Boehner was forced to cancel the vote.
It's highly unlikely they will pull the trigger before a compromise is reached with the democrats, but once that's out of the way, look for a change in leadership. And Boehner may not be the only casualty. Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan may be gone too.
Democrats have already taken a bigger hit from the voters than they did in 1995, when they had it all their own way. Obama's approval rating dropped to 37% and it looked like their stance of no negotiations was ready to break when Boehner and his Lieutenants lost their nerve, rolled over and played dead.
Up to that point, they were following a good strategy of passing individual spending bills just to have them killed by Harry Reid and Obama. People began seeing them as the obstructionists and polls showed that 61% want to see spending cuts accompany increase in the debt ceiling. Even rank and file democrats favored spending cuts 48% to 44%.
Boehner still has some things going for him, but the biggest thing against him is that the base of the party thinks he sucks. House republicans wil not want to be facing a bunch of tea party candidates in the upcoming 2014 primaries. That would not be good for them or the party.
The Tea party has come up with some really great candidates like Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz. And this year they are endorsing Lee Bright in SC. Glenn beck has called Bright, "the next Ted Cruz". Take that Harry!! But by the same token they have come up with some incredibly bad candidates like Sharron Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, Richard Mourdock and this year's chump, Matt Bevin in Kentucky. Lord knows I am not a Mitch Mcconnell fan and I would love to see him gone even if it's just from leadership, but nominating bevin hands the seat to democrats.
If Boehner doesn't straighten out by Friday, I believe he could be gone by Sunday.