Rick Perry is playing a form of Texas Hold ‘Em with a Social Security card that he’s betting will give him a winning hand.
He believes that characterizing Social Security as “a Ponzi scheme” or “a monstrous lie” will win him favor among the voters he wants to court to become the next president.
The Republican Texas governor is likely making the wrong bet, particularly in New Hampshire.
Bashing Social Security as a failure might, as he did last night in California, win him the tea party vote that he so desperately wants to steal from Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann.
But it’s not likely to win him much favor with the millions of Baby Boomers and seniors who are either looking forward to their Social Security years or who are getting their benefits now.
This is particularly true in New Hampshire -- a state that is getting older. In fact, we’re grayer than Florida.
Census Bureau data show that the average age in New Hampshire is 41.7 years, up from 37.2 a decade ago.
The Granite State ranks third behind Maine (42.7) and West Virginia (41.3) and ahead of retiree-rich Florida (40.7) in median age.
The Baby Boomer/senior population is a cohort that 1) votes at a higher percentage rate than other age groups and 2) can be very protective of the government entitlements they believe they’ve earned over the years.
And don’t think that Perry has any room to wiggle on this issue. In his book, “Fed Up,” he criticized Social Security for “violently tossing aside any respect for our founding principles of federalism and limited government.” He described the program as “something we have been forced to accept for more than 70 years now”; and asserted that “by any measure, Social Security is a failure.”
The chatter from last night’s debate in California seems to narrow the GOP herd to a contest between Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
That remains to be seen, though there is clear evidence that Bachmann is fading and others aren’t in the same tier as Perry and Romney.
Romney certainly took the more mainstream approach at the debate by countering Perry on the Social Security issue, saying, “Our nominee has to be someone who isn’t committed to abolishing Social Security, but who is committed to saving Social Security.”
He too has a book, “Believe in America,” in which he spells out his vision for the program:
“Any serious attempt to rein in spending will have to include entitlement reform. This issue is among the most complex facing policymakers, but some basic principles guide Mitt Romney’s position. First, we must keep the promises made to our current retirees: their Social Security and Medicare benefits should not be affected. But second, we should ensure that the promises that we make to younger generations are promises we can keep. With respect to Social Security, there are a number of options that can be pursued to keep the system solvent – from raising the eligibility age to changing the way benefits are indexed to inflation for high-income retirees.”
Perry’s Social Security card may win him the fringe, but it won’t win him the mainstream.
Paul Briand is an editor/blogger for the non-partisan/non-profit Live Free or Die Association. To see the LFDA's full coverage of the 2012 presidential primary in New Hampshire click here.
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