Moments after the Atlanta Falcons dispatched of the Green Bay Packerson a last-minute field goal on Sunday at the Dome, the always quotable Roddy White held court in the team’s locker room.
“I have no plans of going to Lambeau Field in January,” he said. “I plan on staying right here and sleeping in my own bed in the playoffs.”
Even though there are five weeks left in the season, Atlanta’s win over Green Bay (7-4) had a tremendous impact on whether the route to the Super Bowl in the NFC will head down Peachtree Street. Atlanta shifted the drive much further south with the victory.
While home field advantage is not everything in football, the familiar sights and sound of a team’s home stadium make things a lot easier come playoff time. Atlanta (9-2) is seeking to secure the No. 1 overall seed for the first time in NFL history.
If the Falcons are to procure their spot atop the NFC playoff hierarchy they must first win their division before fighting it out with the rest of the teams in the conference. In the wild and whacky world of the NFL, that means a different set of tie breakers to win the division than to claim the top seed in the NFC.
Let’s take a look where the Falcons stand in both the race for the division crown and the No. 1 spot in the conference.
No good explanation would make much sense if we didn’t look at the criteria the NFL uses to determine a division champion if two team end up tied for the division lead at the end of the season. This could happen if the Falcons run the table and lose to New Orleans Saints (8-3) at the Dome on Dec. 27, and the Saints do not lose another football game this season.
But as you will see, under that scenario, the Falcons will still win the division.
Tiebreaker to determine who wins the division
(Two teams)
- Head-to-Head record
- Division record
- Common Games
- Conference record
Atlanta holds the edge over New Orleans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4) by virtue of winning the first of two head-to-head matchups against each team. The best either team could do was even the series at 1-1.
Assuming the Dirty Birds lose just once against division opponents, they will hold the tiebreak over the Bucs, who have already have losses to the Falcons and Saints inside the division. If that division loss is to New Orleans, both teams would end up tied and we’d have to look at common games.
The good news for Falcons fans is that the Dirty Birds would win that tie break, too. New Orleans has losses to the Cleveland Browns and the Arizona Cardinals, two teams the Falcons have beaten, while the Dirty Birds have lost to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Saints do not play the Eagles this season, therefore Atlanta would hold a one-game edge over the Saints in the common games tiebreaker.
What this means: While it looks like the Falcons have but a one-game lead for the division crown, it’s actually more like a two-game lead because the Dirty Birds hold the edge in tie breakers against the Bucs and Saints.
Ok, assuming the Falcons would win the NFC South, let’s take a look at what it takes to win a head-to-head matchup for top seed in the NFC.
Tiebreaker to determine who gets the No. 1 seed
(two teams)
- Head-to-head
- Conference record
- Common Games
- Strength of Victory
Does this criteria look familiar? If so, you’ve recognized that it’s the same criteria, which is used to determine who gets the Wild Card.
So how do the Falcons fare against the four legitimate hopefuls in those other two divisions?
Right off the bat, they hold a two-game lead on paper over the 7-4 Eagles, the Packers and the New York Giants and a one-game edge over the 8-3 Chicago Bears.
Atlanta wins the tiebreaker over the Packers by virtue of their 20-17 win on Sunday. The Dirty Birds and their 6-1 record against the NFC would win the second tie break against the Giants (5-2) and the Bears (6-3) – two teams that Atlanta does not face this season.
The only team that holds the tiebreaker over the Falcons is the Eagles, who defeated the Dirty Birds earlier this year.
However, should the Eagles, Falcons and an NFC North representative win their divisions and remain tied at the end of the year, you’d throw those head-to-head records out the window (because no one team swept the other two division-winning teams). The Falcons would then win the tie breaker based simply on a superior conference record (6-1 vs. 5-3). Is your head spinning yet?
What this means: Not only are the Dirty Birds in the driver’s seat right now to win the division, but they also any tiebreaker against the contenders in the league except against the Eagles. Any lead that you look on paper as a one-game lead is more like a two-game lead for the Falcons, two-game lead is a three-game lead – with the only exception being the Eagles. They need to make up a two-game gap in the standings to snatch the No. 1 seed away from the Falcons.
Things are looking good for White to be sleeping in his own bed come playoff time.
For e-mail updates whenever a new article is posted, please follow me on Twitter @PJFoleyExaminer or Google Buzz.
Comments