Although a peace plan the White House is seriously considering put forward by a high-powered task force of former UN officials and diplomats entitled “Afghanistan: Negotiating Peace”, released on Wednesday, includes many positive ideas, it falls short of meeting the most critical requirement for achieving peace in Afghanistan: a remedy truly indigenous in nature.
The study by the Century Foundation, led by former UN special representative to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi and former U.S. ambassador Thomas Pickering, advocates talking to the Taliban as soon as possible. Below is a summary and analysis of the plan’s workable aspects as well as serious defects that will prevent it from becoming a long-term sustainable solution.
Workable Recommendations
The report is correct in its assertion a simple power-sharing arrangement between senior-level Taliban and the regime of President Hamid Karzai is unlikely to bring peace to Afghanistan and “reconciliation with the insurgents will eventually have to involve creating a broader political framework to end the war.”
Characterizing the current situation as a stalemate between NATO forces and the insurgents is fair, and breaking the impasse through a negotiated cease-fire would be an ideal first step. The U.S.-led coalition must suspend offensive airstrikes and night raids against mid-level militant commanders and foot soldiers, primarily because collateral damage has fueled the insurgency.
There’s no doubt a wider range of international donors, especially from the region, must honor firm aid commitments to secure stability through economic and social development. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank should provide long-term, reliable financing and wean the country from relying on the U.S. government, whose aid program has benefitted societal elites, warlords, mafia figures and other maligned actors, including the Taliban.
It makes sense for an international peacekeeping force to play a major role during the transition period. They should add the caveat said force must be made-up of troops from other Muslim countries – no Western powers should have boots on the ground.
Brahimi and Pickering’s task-force states, “To reassure neighboring states’ concerns about each other, a precisely negotiated guarantee of Afghanistan’s ‘nonalignment’ with regard to its neighbors and others will be needed”. This is critical to alleviate the concerns of Pakistani leaders, who are paranoid about India’s influence in Kabul. The final outcome must be an Afghan government whose leaders are not beholden to any foreign powers.
The report is especially on-target in its belief that “At the center of the process from the start will be the Afghan parties, who must resolve the core internal divisions; international supporters may be helpful from the sidelines.” However, this contradicts the framework of their proposal which is centered on international involvement to such a degree it opens the door for standard foreign interference in Afghan affairs.
Defects and Faulty Premises
The Century Foundation’s premise is based on the stale paradigm the Afghans have only two alternatives. Yet, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Afghans shouldn’t be forced to choose between the lesser of two evils - Karzai or the Taliban – because there is another path for achieving peace and true national reconciliation.
Though the task-force is headlined by all-star diplomats, many of them participated in the Bonn Conference in Germany after the fall of the Taliban, where a number of crucial mistakes were made when forming the Afghan government, not the least of which was affording a gross consolidation of power to be written into the constitution anathema to thousands of years of Afghan tradition, which empowered a clique of corrupt officials and warlords while weakening the tribal structure.
The Bonn Agreement was also designed under UN auspices with heavy involvement from Westerners and regional actors like Iran, China and Russia. The current report champions a similar “regional agreement” which is a fancy way of saying the Afghans’ destiny will be dictated by outsiders, once again. A Western-style, Jeffersonian, highly-centralized democratic form of government had been presupposed at Bonn, which also set the stage for the U.S. to install Karzai as head of state against the will of the Afghan people.
The foundation’s most dangerous idea is suggesting Karzai be the one who builds a negotiating team, using his High Peace Council as a platform for “open national dialogue”. Karzai has abused power, stolen billions from the pockets of starving Afghans and is a more malevolent U.S. puppet than Hosni Mubarak. Karzai has stacked his “peace” council with war criminals no better than any Taliban members – from Mullah Omar on down – who will stop at nothing to maintain the status quo.
The former UN diplomat-led brain trust also insinuated this process will allow the U.S. to “shape” political outcomes with more confidence and that it be the “essential interlocutor” to chart a path toward the conflict’s resolution. Truth be told, the key to success is for the U.S. to stay as far away as possible from the entire proceedings because they have “shaped” enough.
As far as who should play the role of “facilitator”, former U.S. assistant Secretary of State James Dobbins recommended a number of candidates including Staffan de Mistura, the current head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). According to Minna Jarvenpaa from the U.S. Institute of Peace, UNAMA’s reputation for impartiality has been weakened among Afghans due to its close relationship with the Afghan government and its handling of the 2009 elections, which were rife with fraud and enabled Karzai to retain office.
An Afghan Solution
It’s time for a grassroots reconciliation process and not the typical top-down approach this report tries to sell. Also, a new and shocking departure is needed to change the tone of the Afghan crisis and reorient people’s thinking. As part of the indigenous solution to restore the true Afghanistan, Afghans should free themselves from the existing extremist narrative as outlined by the New World Strategies Coalition (NWSC) in a white paper entitled ”Restoring Afghanistan’s Tribal Balance”.
The Afghans can accomplish this but must escape the violence of the war zone and reconvene in neutral countries such as Turkey, Kuwait and Ireland, where they will hold traditional tribal meetings called jirgas to establish a government that truly reflects the will of its people while enshrining legitimate Afghan leaders with moral authority versus today’s corrupt strongmen that derive their power from the barrel of a gun.
Parties or groups will not be allowed representation – only individual Afghans. The Taliban, the Afghan government, drug barons or the warlords cannot attend. The likes of Mr. Karzai, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Hekmatyar, Rashid Dostum and other leaders may join the jirga as ordinary Afghan citizens without any affiliation – or bodyguards.
The “All-Afghan Jirgas” process, from concept to implementation, will be done by Afghans, for Afghans with zero foreign intervention, because the only solution that will bring peace to Afghanistan is an Afghan solution. Now is not the time to “talk to the Taliban” - but the time is nigh for the Afghans to take back their country from Western powers and Islamic extremists and return to their tribal roots.
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