If you were hoping for a white Christmas for the Lake Tahoe ski region, think again. the latest GFS weather model guidance suggests that the next chance of some flurries for Tahoe will be December 27th. There is also a chance for a few light showers over San Jose, San Francisco, and Oakland as a low pressure system passes north of the Bay area. Unfortunately, this precipitation is needed as the Bay area has been unseasonably dry for this time of year, nearly 4 inches below average. It looks as if the ski resorts will have to continue to rely on man-made snow at least for the next week.
The long range forecast for the next week does not look encouraging as well. Latest weather model guidance suggests that the dry spell will continue into the next week, however this is some hope for skiers and snowboarders waiting to test out there new Christmas presents that they may receive tomorrow. January 1st, there is a chance for snow over Tahoe, but a major Pacific Northwest low pressure system will diverge slightly south near January 3rd/4th that could bring a measurable amount of snow to the Tahoe ski region, and rain for the San Francisco Bay area. This a is a long term forecast and is subject to change, but we will continue to monitor the situation.
Why has it been dry lately?
The main reason is a strong area of high pressure over northern and central California the past few weeks. An active northern branch of the jet stream is flowing north over the Pacific Northwest in which all storms (and moisture) is being sent up into Washington and Oregon. The high pressure system has also been helping to create inversions trapping pollution in the Bay area, causing a number of "spare the air" alerts. Until this high dissipates, look for further alerts on air quality into the new year.
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