For football fans and political junkies the summer of 2011 has been all about “the deal,” or the lack thereof. Loyal National Football League (NFL) fans have been fretting over the possibility of losing the season to a labor dispute. Those who follow politics have witnesses the Republicans and Democrats square off over raising the debt ceiling. It now appears that the NFL regular season is no longer in jeopardy, but sadly the leaders in Washington seem further away from agreement than ever.
By all accounts a labor agreement in the NFL is likely to emerge sometime over the next week. Both sides continue to meet, making key concessions in order to move things along. The players have reportedly agreed to give owners a large share of the revenue base. The owners have given up some of their demands relating to free agency. Both sides have agreed to implement a new rookie wage scale. While there were some harsh words spoken between team owners and the players earlier this summer, in the end both sides realized that it would be disastrous for them if no season was played. The NFL is extremely popular, generating over $9 billion in revenue each year. That amount will only grow in the future. Simply put, it made sense to compromise to get a deal done.
The picture in Washington D.C. is a much different one. Rather than trying to meet in the middle and focus on the economics the debate in Washington is focused on politics and ideology. President Obama tried to craft a “grand bargain” to get bipartisan support. The deal reportedly included $3 trillion in spending cuts for every $1 of new tax revenue, or a 3:1 win for Republicans. Conservative David Brooks called it the “mother of all no-brainers” for Republicans to accept. Instead, the House Republicans rejected the deal, demanding that not one dollar of new tax revenue be part of the debt deal. Since that time both sides have essentially just reiterated their initial positions while Senators McConnel (R-KY) and Reid (D-NV) try to formulate a last-ditch “escape hatch” plan to avoid default if talks fall through.
Much like the NFL, it would benefit both sides if a deal is made. As Nate Silver of The New York Times explained, both Democrats and Republicans lose in the event of a default. Polls show that the public would blame Republicans for not compromising if no deal is made, and a bad economy is always bad for an incumbent president. On the other hand, if a real deal that actually reduces the deficit is made then both sides could take credit.
Instead, Speaker Boehner (R-OH) has stated that he will hold a number of purely symbolic votes next week before he allows any vote on the debt ceiling deal. Republcians will essentially try to provide themselves cover by voting on politically popular bills that have no chance of passing before they are forced to vote on a readl deal. Politics is reigning supreme. Even after a debt deal is made it may take many days, or longer depending on the specificity of the deal, to write the legislation for Congress to vote on. What this all means is that an optimistic date for a vote on debt deal is sometime after July 25. If negotiations stall any more there is real danger of the August 2 default deadline passing with debt deal agreement.
Sadly, while the NFL owners and players have come to their senses the people on Capitol Hill have not. America will be able to watch NFL football, but they may not be able to afford a ticket if no economy remains after a default.
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